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2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2: NYR v WSH Analysis


On Goal Analysis continues their 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs 2nd Round analysis with the NYR versus WSH matchup that begins on Saturday, 28 April. For this review, we use the same analysis formula provided for the NYR versus WSH Round 2 blog posted on 27 April as listed below:

The Schedule

The 2012 Series

Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; and Goal Differential.

We also provide CTSA on tem performance from Round 1 of the playoffs in terms of: Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; odds of Wins and Losses of Round 2, Game 1 and the series as a whole from historical patterns; Round 1 Closing Win Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value.

How does our analysis call this series?

NYR vs WSH

What? AGAIN!? This is the third of four possible years these two teams could meet in the playoffs since The Lockout. And the Capitals vanquished the Rangers in the previous two series. So what are we in store for this season?

Schedule

Sat, 28 April, 3p (ET) WSH at NYR [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Mon, 30 April, 7:30p (ET) WSH at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Wed, 2 May, 7:30p (ET) NYR at WSH [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Sat, 5 May, 12:30p (ET) NYR at WSH [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Mon, 7 May, 7:30p (ET) WSH at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Wed, 9 May, TBD NYR at WSH [TBD, CBC, RDS – if required]

Sat, 12 May, TBD WSH at NYR [TBD, CBC, RDSI – if required]

2012 Series

Fri, 25 November NYR 6 @ WSH 3 (New York leads series 1 – 0; Lundqvist defeats Neuvirth; NYR goals from Gaborik, Anisimov, Fedotenko (2), Boyle and Richards; WSH goals from Brouwer, Carlson and Ovechkin; 18 PIMs)

Wed, 28 December NYR 1 @ WSH 4 (Series tied 1 – 1; Vokoun defeats Biron; WSH goals from Johansson, Brouwer and Semin (2); NYR goal from Dubinsky; 14 PIMs)

Sun, 12 February WSH 2 @ NYR 3 (New York leads series 2 – 1; Lundqvist defeats Neuvirth; NYR goals from Callahan, McDonagh and Prust; WSH goals from Semin and Carlson; 8 PIMs)

Sat, 7 April WSH 4 @ NYR 1 (Series tied 2 – 2; Holtby defeats Lundqvist; WSH goals from Ovechkin, Perrault, Carlson and Backstrom; NYR goal from Boyle; 16 PIMs)

Key Notes: This series wound up a split; Lundqvist went 2 – 1 playing three different goalies with his single loss to Holtby closing out the regular season; both teams split wins in each other’s building; leading NYR goal scorers in this series are Fedotenko and Boyle (2); leading WSH goal scorers are Carlson and Semin (3); and the series ran an average of 14 PIMs per game with no majors issued.

NYR vs WSH CTSA

Using Regular Season Wins, Losses, Points, Conference Seed, Goals For, Goals Against and Goal Differential as measured against previous Stanley Cup winners, NYR is the most dominant team of the two and the best qualified (along with NJD) in terms of pattern analysis to advance toward winning The Stanley Cup since BOS was knocked out by WSH. (NYR – 1; WSH –3.5)

Specialty Teams stats rank NYR and WSH as pretty similar in terms of statistical effort. WSH gets the nod, however, as they are .2% better on the PP and 6.7% better/second only to PHX on the PK. (NYR – 1.5; WSH –3.5)

Both teams’ Average Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak are equal. Both are also below the average for teams still in Playoff contention. (NYR – 3.5; WSH – 5.5)

WSH’s Average Losing Streak and Longest Losing Streak is also better than NYR’s. (NYR – 4.5; WSH –5.5)

Both teams have a better Home record than their opponent’s Road record. That said, WSH’s Home Record and NYR’s Road record hold the better Winning percentage. These numbers indicate the series has potential for a long, see-saw battle with NYR prevailing in another Game 7. (NYR – 5; WSH –6)

There is no data indicating if either team has a high probability of winning Game 1 of Round 2. This is because no other, similar Win/Loss pattern exists for teams winning Round 1 since the Lockout. Also, no team with NYR’s W/L pattern has won subsequent Playoff series since 2006, so there is no overall indication of success from their Round 1 performance. For WSH, twice their pattern resulted in losses in the Round 3 and once a Stanley Cup victory (for the 2006 Hurricanes). So the Caps have a .333 probability of going on to the Finals against no data for NYR. (NYR – 5; WSH –6)

NYR closed out their Round 1 series having to take Games 6 and 7 back-to-back. A two-game closeout streak is low average. WSH went into BOS and won Game 7 in OT – their one game closeout streak is the Lo number for half of the teams remaining in play. (NYR – 5.5; WSH –7)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

  • WSH leads both clubs at the LW, C and G positions. LW and C fall in the Lo/average range and their Goalie is in the Hi/average range for Playoff teams still on the docket. Leading players here in terms of by-game statistics are Ovechkin at LW and Holtby in goal. If NYR’s Boyle is still out, Backstrom is the dominant Centerman in this contest. And Holtby’s lead over Lundqvist comes from more SOG against, Saves and corresponding TOI. (NYR –5.5; WSH –8.5)
  • NYR leads in terms of stats packs for RW and D. RW stands as Hi/average while Defense is Lo/ average on a by-game basis when compared to all other current Playoff teams. The Ranger’s Callahan leads Brouwer at RW, and Girardi and McDonagh both lead WSH’s top Defenseman (Carlson) in terms of both by-game and overall team percentage of statistical contribution. (NYR – 6.5; WSH –8.5)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages, NYR leads WSH by a scant .573 points in total combined by-game stats.

Both teams also net an overall statistical grade of “Low C” with NYR toting a 2.943 grade points lead over WSH. Of note here is the Capital’s combined statistical grade is the lowest of the remaining teams.  (NYR – 6.5; WSH –9.5)

Summary

Between these two clubs, historical team statistics and their Round 1 performance indicate NYR should come out ahead. Their advantages really come down to Home and Away Win/Loss percentages and overall, by-position/by-game statistical averages. The margins of error are very close, however, indicating a tough-fought series is ahead.

How does NYR ensure a series victory? Firstly, they must ignore the history of their last two Playoff series with WSH and how the Caps dominated them in MSG to close out the season. Unfortunately, Lundqvist is going to have to be close to perfect again for the Blue Shirts to earn each victory. If they get Boyle and his energy back in this series, that will definitely be a game-changer. And the Rangers’ top performing Dmen need to continue hitting, blocking shots and scoring the odd point.

How does WSH pull off an upset? As we stated in their Round 1 analysis with BOS, if Holtby is the next coming of Ken Dryden, this is likely their series. Also, Ovechkin, who comes in leading all LW’s in statistical output, needs to find his happy place somewhere between his O and d. They will also need Backstrom and Hendricks to kick it up a notch, especially to exploit the absence of Boyle for as long as that goes.

Our overall call is NYR winning the series in seven games. The tell for this outcome will come on 12 May.

Up later is our blog for the Saturday contest between STL and LAK…

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  1. Pingback: 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Con’t: STL v LAK Analysis « The OGA Blogs - April 28, 2012

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