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AHL Predictive Analysis – 24 October


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 24 October Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Wednesday, 24 October. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they were after the games that night.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. We will provide the PQC calls explained below as each team reaches another 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams do so, the standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation. And once we make a call of IN (Chasing Calder) or OUT (Tee Time), we stick by it unless a BAD CALL (Shot Off The Post) notification is made.

Additionally, we also give you projected standings based on team play. Note here that the chart is from early in the season, but we gain more and more accuracy with every game played. Still, projected standings will not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning around the Game 20 mark. But you should know we are striving to bring you the end result long before its actual arrival.

The 24 October Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 24 October:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our call in how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Again, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games. (For example, my hometown Houston Aeros’ first PQC call will come after the game they play on 4 November, their Game 10.) Note here that in the NHL it was tradition to get some early ‘Chasing Stanley’ and/or TT calls each year until the last year season. In 2011-12, it took until the Game 30 mark to start calling CS’ due to the competitiveness of the League. We will see how the AHL works out.

“What Do We Already Know?”

As we begin to close in on the Game 5 (G5) mark, we can already see a few things shaking out in each Conference, to include adjustments for Sunday night’s games.

In the East, six of 15 teams still retain a chance at a Chasing Calder call. Now only two cannot be better than Sharpening Skates. And seven cannot best an In The Curve for their call. Finally, Syracuse and Norfolk remain the two teams who will not be at Tee Time come G10.

Out West, the maximum PQC numbers are currently three Chasing Calder’s, five Sharpening Skates’ (down three from Saturday) and seven who cannot surpass In The Curve just as in the East. Additionally, Chicago, Lake Erie and Rochester will not be at Tee Time once G10 rolls around.

We will know what each team’s PQC is for the G10 mark before we give you the call, but we cannot give you our recipe – just the final, plated dish. But stand by as you will only have to wait about two-to-three weeks for those calls.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 24 October. There are only nine teams in the hunt for a potential Chasing Calder call, and five teams we know will not be eliminated from the AHL playoffs come April. Your next update will be posted on Saturday, 27 October following the games played Friday night. We also will keep an eye on the PQC picture which is starting to shape up now as we head toward the G10 mark.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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