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AHL Predictive Analysis – 10 November


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 10 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Saturday, 10 November and to close out all Game 10 (G10) PQC calls. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played. Since that is so, we begin to turn our attention to the G20 call hereafter.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 10 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 10 November:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games. (For example, my hometown Houston Aeros’ first PQC call will come after the game they play on 10 November, their Game 10.)

“What Do We Already Know?”

All AHL teams have reached the G10 mark for their first PQC as of Saturday, 10 November. All AHL teams will reach their G20 call between 28 November (Rockford and St. John’s) and 9 December (Albany).

As of Saturday night, we finished the G10’s with two teams at Sharpening Skates (SS) and the other 13 at In The Curve (ITC). Wins and losses against the PQC are cumulative with the only thing halting or supporting an inevitable rise or fall being a winning or losing streak respectively. Going into the G20’s, 14 teams still have a chance at a Chasing Calder (CC) call, although it should be noted one OT/SO loss by five teams drops them to a maximum of Sharpening Skates (SS). One team already cannot surpass an ITC call once G20 rolls around. (Remember, Eastern teams have played between 10 and 13 games as of Saturday night.)

After games on 10 November, Eastern Conference PQC status heading toward the G20′s is below:

And with Saturday night’s games completed in the Western Conference, we finished the G10’s with one team at an SS call, 12 at an ITC and two who just staved off elimination with a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC). (Note here that Texas did so with a goalie-pulled score at the 19:59 mark of regulation last night!) As we head toward the G20’s, 12 teams still have a chance at a CC, although any loss drops four teams to at or below a maximum of SS. Two team already cannot surpass an SS, and one more an ITC call at G20. (And Western Conference teams have played between 10 and 13 games as of Saturday night just like back East. The difference is while only St. John’s is at 13 in the Eastern Conference, Charlotte, Grand Rapids and Lake Erie are already there out West.)

After 10 November games, Western Conference maximum possible G20 PQC status is below with two teams who we already know will not be a Tee Time call in early December:

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 10 November. There are 26 teams in the hunt for a potential Chasing Calder going into G20 as we just completed the last G10. Expect that maximum possible number to shrink as we move onwards into G30, G40 and so on.

Here is a final rolling list of all G10 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics):

Friday, 2 November 2012, Bradley Arena, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Lake Erie Monsters hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Mile One Centre, St, John’s, NL – Based on their play through Game 10, the St. John’s IceCaps hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, BMO Harris Bank Center, Rockford, IL – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rockford IceHogs hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Charlotte Checkers and Chicago Wolves hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, DCU Center, Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Worcester Sharks hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Oklahoma City Barons hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Grand Rapids Griffins and Houston Aeros hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Milwaukee Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Binghamton Senators and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 8 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Peoria Rivermen hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Friday, 9 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Manchester Monarchs hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Springfield Falcons hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Connecticut Whale are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Adirondack Phantoms hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Hershey Bears hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Syracuse Crunch hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Toronto Marlies hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Abbotsford Heat of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Times Union Center, Albany, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Albany Devils hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Providence Bruins hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Norfolk Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Portland Pirates hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the San Antonio Rampage hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Texas Stars hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Your next update will be posted on Monday, 12 November following games played on Sunday, Veteran’s/Remembrance Day.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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