Matt Pryor

Right Wing Conspiracy – 14 MAY 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

Rangers Roll; B’s Knees?

While the New York Rangers were busy blowing out the Washington Capitals 5-0 last night, the Boston Bruins completed an NHL-history-making comeback:  Trailing Toronto 4-1 with 14:31 remaining in the third period, Boston scored three goals – including two in the final 1:22, after pulling goalie Tuukka Rask – to send the game to overtime, then delivered the coup de grace just 6:05 into the extra frame.  Now, the Rangers and Bruins face off in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.  How will that play out?  Here’s my two cents:

Going into this series, the biggest question mark has to be the Bruins’ blueline.  With Andrew Ference on crutches and Dennis Seidenberg leaving last night’s game with a mysterious lower-body injury after just 37 seconds of ice time, Boston is now facing a serious problem.  In Games Six and Seven, New York coach John Tortorella utilized new line combinations:  Hagelin-Stepan-Callahan, Zuccarello-Brassard-Nash, Pyatt-Boyle-Dorsett and Kreider-Richards-Asham.  In the deciding game of the Rangers-Caps series, scoring came from all four lines.  The Bruins’ depleted d-corps will have their hands full…and if Rick Nash breaks out, only a superhuman effort from Tuukka Rask will keep Boston in this series.

Beyond the blueline, the Bruins got past Toronto with just one line (Lucic-Krejci-Horton) firing on all cylinders.  That line tallied 11 goals and 18 assists, while all other B’s forwards combined produced just 5 goals and 11 helpers.  It’s a given that New York will put their top blueline tandem of Girardi and McDonagh up against Boston’s KHL line, so the Bruins will need much more from the likes of Jagr, Marchand, Bergeron and Seguin.

In addition to the above, two key matchups will be the Rangers’ putrid power play (7.1%) against the Bruins’ sub-par penalty kill (76.2%) and, even more important than special teams, the Battle of the Faceoff Circle:  Boston leads all playoff teams, winning 60.0% of their draws against Toronto, while the Rangers are struggling a bit at 49.2%.  If Boston can shore up their blueline and the Rangers can shut down the Bruins’ top line, this series will be decided at the faceoff dot.

Boston has two wild cards:  Jagr’s Butt and Wade Redden’s Revenge.  When Jaromir Jagr is firing on all cylinders, he’s still one of the best puck possession forwards in the game, utilizing his gluteus to the maximus to shield the puck from defenders and keep an offensive zone cycle going, which leads to tired defensemen and scoring chances.  Will Wade Redden exact revenge on the club that buried him in the minors for two long seasons?  Undoubtedly, his motivation factor will be high for this series.  Expect Redden to do what he didn’t do nearly enough to keep him in New York:  shoot the puck.

New York’s wild cards are Rick Nash and the Fourth Line (great name for a band, no?).  Nash is not playing poorly, but he’s definitely been snakebit thus far in the playoffs.  If he can score early in this series and rediscover his mojo, look out.  The new fourth line of Kreider-Richards-Asham was particularly impressive in Game Seven, with Kreider’s drop pass to Asham setting up the Rangers’ first goal (the eventual game-winner).  Aaron Asham scored two goals in the series against Washington, and continued success for the Blueshirts’ fourth line would be very bad news for the B’s.

Prediction:  The Bruins feed off their history-making Game Seven win over Toronto to take Game One against New York, but the Rangers’ four lines will overwhelm Boston’s undermanned blueline.  New York in six.

Right Wing Conspiracy – 7 MAY 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

The New York Rangers, Three Games In

RWC is a day late this week, as I wanted to write about the Rangers after seeing their performance in Game Three of their playoff series against the Washington Capitals.  After watching the Blueshirts slip past the Caps to secure a critical 4-3 win at Madison Square Garden last night (Washington leads the series, 2-1), I’m left with the following thoughts:

• Wwwwwhhhhheeeeeewwwwww.  That was much too close for comfort.  Ten more seconds on the clock, and Washington might very well have sent the game into overtime.
• The Rangers looked confident and in full control on only one shift – the shift in which Derek Stepan scored the game-winning goal.  From the time the puck entered the offensive zone, the momentum shifted to the Rangers and quickly rose to a crescendo.  Every once in a while, you just know what’s about to happen; so it was with Stepan’s goal.
• The other 59:30, however, New York looked nervous, uncomfortable.  Too many players tried to do too much.  Too many times, blue-on-blue collisions were narrowly avoided.  Too many passes were either in skates or just out of reach.  For too much of the game, the Rangers looked like every team did at the beginning of the season:  disjointed, out of sync, harried.  Though the Capitals can claim some credit for that, the majority of the Blueshirts’ problem lies between their own ears.  Were I John Tortorella, my pep talk prior to Game Four would be short and sweet:  “Guys, you’re not thinkers, you’re hockey players.  So stop thinkin’ and just play hockey.”
• Full credit to New York, though:  Despite their uneven, unconfident performance, they beat a loose, confident Capitals team.  That in itself speaks volumes about the Rangers’ potential and causes the Blueshirt Faithful to wonder what these guys could do if they were healthy and confident.
• Speaking of health…the return of Marc Staal was a huge morale booster for the Rangers, even if his performance was about what you would expect from a guy who hasn’t played in two months and suddenly finds himself in a do-or-die playoff game.  On the downside, Darroll Powe left the game with what can only be a concussion.  His loss is a significant blow to New York’s penalty kill, which finally stopped the bleeding last night, limiting Washington to just one shot on goal in three power play attempts.  As long as Powe is out, expect the PK pairings to be Hagelin-Boyle and Callahan-Stepan.  If Ryane Clowe can go, he’ll take Powe’s spot in the lineup Wednesday; if not, Chris Kreider should suit up.
• Since coming over from Columbus at the trade deadline, Derick Brassard has been reborn.  He looks like the kid who put up 10-15-25 in 31 games before losing the rest of his rookie season to a shoulder injury.  I’ve followed the Blue Jackets closely since Brass was a rookie, and he’s now playing with more confidence and flash than at any time since 08-09.
• John Moore continues to impress, except when handling the puck behind his own net.  His puck handling/decision making behind King Henrik hasn’t cost the Rangers yet, but if he continues to turn the puck over in those situations, it’s going to bite the Blueshirts eventually.
• The Rangers hit yet another post Monday night.  This time, Brad Richards was the unlucky sniper.  In a series in which two of three games have been decided by a single goal, this business of hitting the post, rather than the back of the net, is a real problem.  It’s a statistical anomaly, sure…but in a seven game series, statistical anomalies can kill you.
• Monday’s Game Three win was do-or-die for the Rangers.  They passed that test (barely), but face another do-or-die situation Wednesday night.  If the Blueshirts can skate away with another W, they’ll head back to Washington with momentum in a tied series.  If they take Game Five (and with it, a 3-2 series lead), I’m confident the Rangers will advance.  Right now, however, New York needs a three-game win streak.  They have one.  A chance at two comes tomorrow night.

Right Wing Conspiracy – 29 APR 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

The 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs:  Were Realignment Foes Right?

During the haggling between the NHL, NHLPA and the owners over realignment for next season, the biggest controversy by far concerned the unbalanced conferences.  With sixteen teams in the East and only fourteen in the West – and eight teams from each conference making the playoffs – one group would seem to have a decided advantage over the other, in terms of qualifying for the postseason.  Simple math indicates 50% of Eastern Conference clubs will make the playoffs, compared to 57% of Western clubs.  How might that disparity play out?  Let’s move this season to next, and see how it looks:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Division D no.1 Pittsburgh (72 pts.) vs. Wild Card no.2 Ottawa (56)

Division C no.1  Montreal (63) vs. Wild Card no.1  Detroit (56)

Division C no.2 Boston (62) vs. Division C no.3 Toronto (57)

Division D no.2 Washington (57) vs. Division D no.3 NY Rangers (56)

In this scenario, Detroit – late of the Western Conference - has replaced the New York Islanders.  Both the Isles and the Columbus Blue Jackets (Western Conference refugees, as well) finish with 55 points and miss the playoffs.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Division B no.1 Chicago (77 pts.) vs. Wild Card no.2 Winnipeg (51)

Division A no.1 Anaheim (66) vs. Wild Card no. 1 San Jose (57)

Division A no.2 Los Angeles (59) vs. Division A no.3 Vancouver (59)

Division B no.2 St. Louis (60) vs. Division B no.3 Minnesota (55)

This is where the train leaves the rails:  Winnipeg, with 51 points, gets an invitation to The Dance, while the Islanders and Blue Jackets, each with 55 points, stay home.  Extrapolating over an 82-game season, it would take 96 points to secure a playoff seed in the East, compared to just 88 in the West.  That’s a HUGE difference, folks.

Given that the NHL has no intention of moving either Detroit or Columbus back into the Western Conference, how can they correct for this disparity?  Two potential solutions come to mind:  1.  Changing the playoff format, or 2.  Expansion.

CHANGING THE PLAYOFF FORMAT

Where playoff formats are concerned, the most equitable is also the most radical:  Eliminate both division and conference playoffs.  The four division winners are seeded 1-4, the next best twelve teams are 5-16.  As a reward for winning their respective divisions, 1-4 get to select their first round opponents.  The remaining clubs are matched up as closely as possible to normal order, i.e., 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, etc.  After the first round, all teams are re-seeded and play proceeds accordingly.  The +/- of this format is fairly straightforward:

• Format ensures top sixteen teams make the playoffs every year, eliminating controversy. (+)
• Significant advantage (reward) goes to division winners by allowing them to pick their first round opponents. (+)
• High potential for increased travel during playoffs, as cross-continental matchups (i.e., Vancouver vs. Florida) could occur in any/every round. (-)
• Playoff travel will be spread more evenly between Eastern and Western conferences. (+)
• Format allows potential for two teams from same division to meet in the Stanley Cup Finals.  (from an American TV ratings perspective, + if it’s Rangers-Penguins, – if it’s Senators-Maple Leafs)

EXPANSION

The NHL’s unbalanced realignment has led to much speculation on the possibility of an expansion to 32 teams.  To this end, Quebec City and Seattle seem to be frontrunners, with a second Toronto team running third.  Kansas City, with its NHL-ready arena, is always part of the conversation, as well.  The biggest question, however, is the status of the Phoenix Coyotes:  Will they stay or will they go?

If the Coyotes move, Seattle would seem a logical destination, as well as one which would allow them to remain in the same division.  Though Kansas City’s name pops up every time a team starts talking relocation, KC will likely always be the guy your girlfriend flirts with to make you jealous, though she has no intention of seriously dating him.  Why not?  Because he’s totally like a big brother to her, that’s why.  Also, his 31st-ranked TV market just doesn’t turn her on.

Television is a significant consideration in both expansion and the potential relocation of the Coyotes.  Though the Thrashers’ move to Winnipeg improved the NHL’s bottom line in the short-term, losing a presence in America’s 8th-ranked TV market could hurt when it comes time to renew the league’s television contract.  Phoenix is ranked 12th, and losing that market without a comparable replacement would be a bitter pill for the NHL to swallow.  For this reason alone, 14th-ranked Seattle is a much more desirable destination than either Quebec City or Toronto.

On the other hand, Houston, the no.10 TV market in America, is a very attractive darkhorse candidate for either relocation or expansion.  The AHL Aeros, who are leaving for Des Moines after the playoffs, averaged 6793 fans per game this season, good for 7th in the league.  According to this spreadsheet, Houston would seem to have the financial resources to support an NHL franchise.  A second team in Texas would fit nicely into the Western Conference’s Division B, where they would benefit from an instant rivalry with the Dallas Stars.  At this point, all Houston lacks is an NHL-level ownership group.

An expansion team in Quebec City seems to be inevitable at this point.  While the league’s bottom line will benefit greatly from the second coming of the Nordiques, the downside is that either Detroit or Columbus will again have to go West.  The Red Wings, with their long-established and loyal fan base, would weather such a move better than the Blue Jackets, but Detroit owner Mike Ilitch undoubtedly has more pull with the league office than his counterpart in Columbus.

The NHL will have 32 teams in the not-too-distant future; bank on it.  Quebec City is a virtual lock for an expansion franchise, which would send either Detroit or Columbus back to the Western Conference.  If the Coyotes move, they’ll either end up in Seattle or Houston.  If Phoenix stays put, the 32nd team in the NHL will either be on Puget Sound or the Houston Ship Channel.  Either way, The Great Game grows, and that’s a good thing.

Right Wing Conspiracy – 22 APR 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

If…

…the Columbus Blue Jackets win their remaining two games, they could (theoretically) finish as high as 5th in the Western Conference.

…the Blue Jackets win those two remaining games in regulation or overtime, Detroit can still move ahead of them in the standings by going 4-0-0, or 3-0-1 with at least two regulation or OT wins.

…the Dallas Stars earn a point Tuesday against San Jose, they can move ahead of Columbus with a regulation win over the Jackets Thursday night.

…Columbus had started the season just 8-9-4, rather than 5-12-4, they would currently be sitting in 5th in the Western Conference.

…this were next season (post-realignment), the Blue Jackets would currently be 5th in their division, one point behind the Senators and Rangers for the final Wild Card playoff seed.

…the Jackets win their next two “must-win” games, they can relax:  In the playoffs, they’ll only have to win 4 of every 7 games to stay alive, rather than 8 of their last 9.

…defenseman Tim Erixon couldn’t crack the Rangers top seven but is seeing almost 16 minutes a night with the Jackets, and John Moore was deemed expendable by Columbus but has been compared favorably to Ryan McDonagh by Rangers coach John Tortorella, I guess “fit” outweighs “talent” by a significant margin.

…Columbus finds themselves in a one-goal game, look out:  they’re 14-7-7 this season in games decided by a single goal.

…the Blue Jackets pass the Wild and move into 7th, they’ll play Anaheim in the first round…which could be bad news for the Ducks:  Cbus is 2-1-0 vs. Anaheim this season, with all games decided by one goal (2-3, 2-1OT, 3-2OT).

…on the other hand, the Jackets finish 8th and face Chicago in the first round, they’ll still be competitive:  though the Blackhawks swept the season series with the Blue Jackets, all four games were decided by one goal (3-2, 1-0, 4-3OT, 2-1SO).

…as I said last week, Columbus falls short of the playoffs but Sergei Bobrovsky wins the Vezina Trophy, he’ll become just the 2nd goalie ever to win the Vezina on a non-playoff team.

…anyone else said back in July of 2012 that the Columbus Blue Jackets had a shot at the playoffs this season, I’m not aware of it.  In fact, if you Google “Blue Jackets 2013 playoffs, July 2012,” Google just laughs at you.

Right Wing Conspiracy – 15 APR 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

“Shrimp” and “Bobs” – Two of a Kind?

As the National Hockey League’s 2012-2013 regular season enters the homestretch, playoff buzz mixes with award chatter:  Who will win the Hart Memorial Trophy?  The Norris?  The Jack Adams?  The Vezina?  And so on.

Of all the hardware handed out by the league this summer, the most controversial might very well be the Vezina Trophy.  Awarded to “the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position” by vote of the 30 NHL General Managers (per NHL.com), the Vezina has been presented to eighteen different men since the 1981-82 season.  In that time, five players have won the award more than once, led by Dominik Hasek with six and Martin Brodeur with four.  One common factor unites the eighteen Vezina winners over the last thirty seasons:  They’ve all been on playoff teams.  The precedent was set long ago.

Prior to the 81-82 campaign, the Vezina Trophy simply went to the goalie(s) on the team allowing the fewest goals during the regular season.  As one might surmise, the team allowing the fewest goals during the regular season tends to win quite a few games…and tends to make the playoffs.  In fact, to find a Vezina Trophy winner on a non-playoff team, one has to step into the Wayback Machine and travel through time to the 1930-31 NHL season, when New York Americans netminder Roy “Shrimp” Worters (all 5’3” of him) went 18-16-10 with a 1.61 GAA.  The Amerks allowed just 74 goals in 44 games.  Unfortunately, they only scored 76 goals, tying for league-worst with the hapless Philadelphia Quakers (who finished 4-36-4 and folded at the end of the season).  The Americans finished fourth in their division, and only the top three teams made the playoffs.

Roy Worters has the dubious distinction of being the only goalie in NHL history to win the Vezina Trophy on a non-playoff team.  If enough of the 30 GMs are willing to break with long-held precedent, however, Worters could soon have company.

Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is almost single-handedly keeping the Columbus Blue Jackets, last season’s last-place team, in the playoff hunt in 2013.  The Jackets face an uphill battle, however, as they’re two points out of eighth and tied with the surging Dallas Stars, who have a game in hand.  With five of their six remaining games on the road (@Colorado, Anaheim, LA, San Jose and Dallas, then home against Nashville) and four of those opponents fighting either to secure a playoff berth or to gain a higher seed, Columbus must play near-perfect hockey at both ends of the ice, every single game.  And it still might not be enough.

If the Jackets fall short of a playoff berth, it won’t be Sergei Bobrovsky’s fault.  At 6’2”, the native of Novokuznetsk, Russia stands almost a foot taller than Roy Worters, but just as “Shrimp” was a giant in net in 1930-31, the man they call “Bobs” has been huge night after night in 2013.  His stats are impressive:  32 GP, 16-10-6, .932 Sv%, 2.01 GAA, 4 Shutouts…the first four shutouts of his NHL career.  Bobrovsky measures up well against his peers, too – among goalies with at least 25 Games Played, here’s where he stands:

Goals Against Average:

1.  Corey Crawford, CHI – 25 GP, 1.92 GAA.
2. Tuukka Rask, BOS – 30 GP, 1.99 GAA.
3. Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ – 32 GP, 2.01 GAA.
4. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR – 36 GP, 2.06 GAA.

Save Percentage:

1.  Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ – 32 GP, .932 Sv%.
2. Tuukka Rask, BOS – 30 GP, .929 Sv%.
3. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR – 36 GP, .928 Sv%.
4. Corey Crawford, CHI – 25 GP, .926 Sv%.

Shutouts:

1.  (Tie) Cory Schneider, VAN; Pekka Rinne, NSH; Mike Smith, PHX – 5.
2. (Tie) Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ; Braden Holtby, WSH – 4.

In all probability, the three Vezina Trophy finalists will come from the four leaders in GAA and Sv% above.  Corey Crawford is at a disadvantage due to significantly fewer games played, so for the sake of argument we’ll eliminate him from consideration.  Among the three “finalists,” then, King Henrik, who earned the Vezina last season, ranks third in both stat categories.  Congratulations on a great season, Mr. Lundqvist; we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

Now we’re down to Rask and Bobrovsky.  Their numbers are so close – 1.99 vs. 2.01 GAA, .929 vs. .932 Sv% – what, then, is the tiebreaker?  Shutouts (Bobs has 4, Rask 3)?  Wins (Rask has 17, Bobs 16)?  Or is it simply “playoffs”?  The Bruins are one overtime loss away from clinching a playoff berth, while the Blue Jackets are very much on the bubble.  Assuming Columbus comes up short, should the award really go to the goalie with the best team in front of him?  If team performance must be considered as a tiebreaker for this individual award, one statistic might help settle the matter:  Win % When Leading After Period Two (Ld 2%).

Ld 2% is, in essence, a measure of the ability of a team to “lock down” a game, to hold off a trailing, pressing, desperate opponent for the entire third period…or if they tie the game, to blunt their momentum, refocus, and surge ahead again for the win.  One of the keys to locking down the game, of course, is a clutch goalie.  Columbus (along with Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers) is undefeated when leading after 40 minutes.  Boston, on the other hand, has a disturbing Ld 2% of .684.  Only Buffalo and Colorado are worse (.667 and .583, respectively).

Which goalie is Vezina-worthy – one who makes a playoff team better, or one who is, on a so-called “bubble” team, perfect in the clutch?  The 30 General Managers will decide in a few weeks, but the rest of us won’t find out until June.