The Colonel

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 13 May

The 2013 Playoffs continue with two Eastern Conference Game 7’s Tonight!

So how is OGA looking at this? Saturday, we provided predictive analyses indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all weekend games. The odds were not as good to us as they were Friday night. They said incorrectly:

The New York Islanders would win Game 6, which fell short in the OT period.

And the Washington Capitals would win Game 6 (although we said they would likely not)

Correctly, the odds predicted Detroit would win Game 7 against Anaheim, although we said the series would go to the Ducks. Anaheim was two goals short of a win, 1.5% of the total they netted in the regular season, underscoring how close things always are in the NHL.

The odds as we passed them are 5 – 2 / 71.4% for the two blogs.

What do they tell us about our two G7’s tonight? As you will see below, we had to delve a bit deeper on at least one call…

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston, 7pm Eastern on Monday, 13 May. Based on the Win/Loss pattern of both teams and whether teams with those records have won their next game since the 2006 Playoffs, the chances of winning Game 7 are 50/50 for both teams as shown below:

Of interest here is there are only two other instances of this pattern as historically mentioned above. One was a win and one was a loss each way. For Toronto, one was a win on the road and the other a road loss, meaning the same applies to home ice for Boston. Boston retains the slight edge for winning Game 1 in the series. How do we call this, then?

We said prior to Round 1 the stats indicated Toronto would win in six games. Looking at our original stats advantages for total output in 15 categories just for the Playoffs, here is who has what statistical advantage:

Toronto: LW, RW, Team Average, Total Team Skaters, Goalie and Total Team Numbers

Boston: C, D, Goals Scored Per Game

So this game will come down to three things: Goaltending, defense and line matchups.

The nod goes to Toronto’s Reimer in goal who has faced more shots against and still come up with as many wins as Rask. Rask has him in terms of goals against, but this is likely going to be a game like yesterday’s first period was played. Up and down the ice, fire a shot on goal, then back the other way. Reimer is likely Toronto’s best player on the ice right now.

The big question on defense is who makes the first mistake in front of their goaltender. I believe Boston is less likely to do it, so the issue for Toronto will be whether or not the mistake simply allows one more shot to hit Reimer or for the puck to go into the net.

And in terms of line matchups, Randy Carlyle needs to out duel Claude Julien’s changes like he did so well in Game 2 of this series. Carlyle has shown he can order it, and the Leafs’ players have shown their flexibility to make it happen.

As a bottom line here there is no clear-cut set of things to point to for this call. You can flip a coin. We will stick with our original prediction of Toronto as the series victor.

The New York Rangers at Washington 8pm Eastern on Monday, 13 May. Based on historical Win/Loss pattern as mentioned above that we have here, the chances of winning Game 7 are in the New York Rangers’ favor as shown below:

The significant note here is that there are only two, post-last-Lockout Playoff patterns that match the current Win/Loss of the Rangers going into G7. They happen to be from Boston in 2011 and Pittsburgh in 2009, both Cup-winning years for the two teams. They also happen to come from both teams’ Round 4 Stanley Cup victory. These are good omens for the Rangers. So we are going to leave it at that and go with our original call of the Rangers take Round 1 in seven games.

Summary

Tonight, we close out Round 1 action with two, potentially great, G7 matchups. This is for all the marbles to extend deeper into the post-season. Expect lots of great saves, hits and defense, making every goal that much more important.

And if the odds are correct above, Round 2 will look like this:

Eastern Conference: Ottawa @ Pittsburgh and The New York Rangers @ Toronto (a second straight Original Six matchup)

Western Conference: Detroit @ Chicago and San Jose @ Los Angeles

Excitement, no? The potential for another Original Six matchup? A ratings coup of Chicago/Detroit? The chance for an all-Canadian Eastern Conference final? And a potential Chicago/Los Angeles Western Conference final as well? What’s not to love here?

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 11 May

The 2013 Playoffs continue!

So how is OGA looking at this? Yesterday, we provided predictive analysis indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all four games played. The odds did not lie as they correctly led us to pick the winner of all four games. While we cannot guarantee that will continue to be the case, we are going to give you the odds for both Saturday and Sundays’ matchups below.

Note, too, our calls on series winners based on statistical comparison 30 April through 2 May are only batting .500 right now. Right or wrong, we follow up here. San Jose and Ottawa as Round 1 winners were not confirmed by stats comparison and were therefore wrong. We did, however, pick Chicago in five games and Los Angeles in six games which were on the money.

Still to go we have Anaheim in seven to close out the West, Pittsburgh over the Islanders and Toronto over Boston which will take more games than we thought, and the Rangers over Washington in seven.

As for this weekend’s games, let’s look at the odds based on whether or not past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series win their next game and who has the advantage for opening the series as the Game 1 winner…

What Is Ahead?

Pittsburgh at the New York Islanders 7pm Eastern on Saturday, 11 May. Based on the history mentioned above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the New York Islanders’ favor as shown below:

These teams play on back-to-back evenings with a chance Pittsburgh can close out the series against the odds tonight. But they are going to face a tenacious Islanders team to do it. Our bet is, against our original call, a Game 7. The Penguins should pull that one out, however, as the odds above indicate the series win is in their favor based on the Game 1 winner percentage.

Washington at the New York Rangers 4:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Based on history, above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Capitals’ favor as shown below:

Washington also holds the series-winning advantage for a Game 1 victory. The Capitals closing out the series would not uphold our Rangers’ – win – in – seven prediction, however. We say if the odds are wrong, it is here where the Rangers should reasonably be expected to pull out a win and force a G7.

The New York Islanders at Pittsburgh 7pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. We will update this call on Sunday morning, 12 May based on Saturday’s outcome.

Boston at Toronto 7:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Bruins’ favor as shown below:

As with Washington, the odds of winning in Round 1 go to Boston for the Game 1 win. This would also go against our prediction of a Toronto victory, likely stats-tainted by the Bruins’ performance down the stretch. We would argue that the best Maple Leaf on the ice throughout the series has been James Reimer – a trend which needs to continue for our original prediction to come true.

Detroit at Anaheim 10pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 7 are in the Red Wings’ favor as shown below:

This, as you would expect from a G7, holds a conflicted ending when compared to the odds. Anaheim is still the odds-on favorite based on the G1 series win. This game is being played in the Ducks’ barn and we can expect a good show from the home team.

Summary

So tonight, the game odds say the Islanders win on Saturday night and Washington, Boston and Detroit on Sunday with the Penguins/Islanders Sunday call still TBD. We will see if the historical odds come through or we are looking at something closer to what we claimed would happen before the Round 1 series began.

As we said yesterday, the best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 10 May

The 2013 Playoffs continue!

So how is OGA looking at this? On 30 April and 1 and 2 May, we provided predictive analysis for all Round 1 matchups. Our picks gave you predicted winners based on their statistical advantages this season.

I’ll say it. I absolutely got San Jose versus Vancouver wrong. Stating the Canucks would win in seven games and the Sharks coaching staff would be dismissed was exactly wrong. And the stats for goaltending in the regular season had nothing to do with post-season play. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The stats told me to tell you Chicago over Minnesota in five games. THAT was on the money.

And the stats led me to believe Montreal would take Ottawa in six games. I did say the Senators lead in goalie and defenseman statistical categories and that Carey Price was who to watch in this game. That is where this series was won by Ottawa and lost by Montreal.

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston 7pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Based on the records both teams bring into this game and where past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners in their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Toronto’s favor 100% to Boston’s 69%. For Toronto to carry that through to the end of the series, we would have to go to the seventh game. There is only one instance of a team getting to Game 7 with a record of L-W-L-L-W-W as the Maple Leafs would have to do, but that was a win for that team. Overall, however, the Game 1 winner – Boston – takes Round 1 67.9% of the time. That would go against our call of Toronto taking this series.

New York Rangers at Washington 7:30pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Going again to past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners for their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Washington’s favor 100% to New York’s 60%. We said this series would go to a Game 7 with the Rangers pulling it out. But as with Boston, the Game 1 winner takes Round 1 67.9% of the time which would tip toward the Capitals. That would go against our call for the Rangers taking this series. But we see a split in the next two games and then you can flip a coin for the G7.

Anaheim at Detroit 8pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. The past histories since the 2006 Playoffs indicate the chances of winning Game 6 lean in Detroit’s favor 100% to Anaheim’s 50%. That’s OK. We said Anaheim takes this series in seven games and are sticking by that call.

St. Louis at Los Angeles 10pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. And comparing this game once more to history as mentioned above, the edge for winning Game 6 goes to Los Angeles 50% to St. Louis’ 14.3%. We said this series would go to the Kings in six games which would be tonight. It will be a tough fight, however, as this Blues team won’t just fold up tent and mail it in.

Summary

So tonight, we are saying Toronto, Washington, Detroit and Los Angeles have a better chance odds-wise of winning which would only close out the Blues/Kings series.

The best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 2 May

It’s the 2013 Playoffs! And we owe you two more Eastern Conference team calls and the Conference rollup.

So how does OGA do this? On 1 May, we provided one half of the Eastern Conference’s predictive analysis for Round 1. Here we give you the calls for the last two Eastern Conference series that launch tonight. Call it the Eastern Middles if you will as we take on No. 2 Montreal versus No. 7 Ottawa and No. 3 Washington versus No. 6 the New York Rangers. So we wind up Round 1 predictions tonight.

And don’t forget –it’s the chase for “3.” The first team to it wins the vast majority of the time.

No. 2 Montreal Versus No. 7 Ottawa

I pick Montreal over Ottawa in 6 games. Here is the Montreal versus Ottawa Chart:

As you can see, the Canadiens overmatch the Senators in seven of 10 categories. The big question here is in the numbers, are we seeing the Montreal which went streaky good and streaky mediocre, or are we seeing the effects of a Senators team who persevered through many lost games to injury? Be that as it may, we pick the Canadiens based on the numbers as follows:

Of note going into the Playoffs:

1. The Canadiens are the only team in the playoffs not to hold the lead in terms of both Goalies and Defense. Carey Price is the one to watch for Montreal here.
2. In terms of total statistical output, Phillips and Methot of Ottawa make a better pair than Montreal’s Subban and Georges in terms of each team’s top pair. And Ottawa gets a slight edge going on down into the defensive depth. Could it be size does in deed matter here?
3. Les Canadiens’ Pacioretty, Prust and Eller gave more to their team across the 15 stats categories than the top LW and C for Ottawa.
4. Make no mistake – Chris Neil holds the highest total stats rating of any single player in the East’s list of playoff teams. And if Ottawa was going to knock out Montreal, he will have to be even better.
5. But in overall average for the men out in front of the goaltender, total team average, goals per game, and the regular season series, Montreal pushes ahead.
6. And Ottawa played a tad better down the pike.
7. But Montreal edges out Ottawa in the end. In six games.

No. 3 Washington Versus No. 6 New York Rangers

I say the New York Rangers defeat Washington in 7 games. This is the closest statistical pairing of any playoff matchup. My notes here:

1. The Capitals lead in goal and on defense and LW. Note here it is the TEAM goaltending rating versus any one against Lundqvist and King Henrik could potentially carry games all on his own. (Who to watch: Holtby/Lundqvist in goal and Carlson and Ovechkin from Washington.)
2. The Rangers’ top four Centers and lead RW are strong enough to also carry the stats average for skaters as well. (Who to watch: Stepan, Boyle, Richards, Brassard and Callahan.)
3. Washington’s Goals Per Game and Last 10 games as .850 Hockey lead the two clubs.
4. But total team average and the series between these two teams at 2-to-1 even things out between the clubs.
5. We have a draw here. Statistically. So it comes down to intangibles. We don’t really have any. It’s a feeling then, and that feeling is in favor of the Rangers.

So How Does The Rest Play Out?

If the above all happens as the stats tell us it will, Round 2 will be:

New York Rangers at Pittsburgh, and

Toronto at Montreal

Kinda makes you go Hmmmm… Doesn’t it? We will see. Periodic updates come as the Round continues…

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NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 1 May

It’s the 2013 Playoffs! Man, the season just flew by! Oh, yeah – only 48 games. But does that matter?

Not one bit past weeding out the 14 teams who are hitting the links early.

So how does OGA do this? On 30 April, we provided the Western Conference’s predictive analysis for Round 1. Here we give you the calls for the two Eastern Conference series that launch tonight. Call it the Eastern Bookends if you will as we take on No. 1 Pittsburgh versus No. 9 New York Islanders and No. 4 Boston versus No. 5 Toronto. We will wind up Round 1 predictions Thursday night with the East’s middle two seedings.

And don’t forget – statistically speaking – it’s the chase for “3.” The first team to it wins the vast majority of the time.

No. 1 Pittsburgh Versus No. 8 the New York Islanders

I pick Pittsburgh over New York in 4 games. Here is the Pittsburgh versus New York Chart:

As you can see, the Penguins overmatch the Islanders all 10 categories, a larger margin than anything in the West by a full 20%. Of note going into the Playoffs:

1. Pittsburgh is better at all 15 of our statistical categories that the Islanders. (Who to watch: Fleury, Kunitz, Crosby (when he returns), Dupuis and Orpik for Pittsburgh. While his numbers do not make him the top RW, also keep an eye on Iginla for the Pens.)
2. In order, the closest the Islanders come to matching Pittsburgh position-wise are Centermen, LW/D, RW and Goalie.
   1. Tavares’ numbers are better than Crosby’s due to his absence for injury. But they are also better than any other Penguins’ Center, making Johnny T the best one on the ice tonight. After Tavares, all other Centers pretty much equal out until Crosby returns.
   2. At LW, the Isles’ Matt Martin is on top, and Matt Moulson is even better than James Neal due to games lost for injury by Neal. After that, the depth players at LW are better than whatever the Islanders can ice. It is the third pairing on D for the Penguins which stands taller than the Isles’.
   3. The Pens top three RW’s have stats packs that outshine the same players from Long Island.
   4. And the greatest overall gap comes in between the pipes. It is important to note here that the Islanders’ Nabokov – as good as he was for them down the stretch – is only equivalent to the Penguins’ Vokoun statistically. (Who to watch, however, for the Islanders: Tavares, Streit and Nabokov.)
   5. Pittsburgh was .800 down the Last 10 game stretch and only relinquished one loss in five games to the Islanders in the regular season with a +8 goal differential.
   6. In short, the only ways New York pulls out a victory is by Penguins’ error combined with Nabokov standing on his head.

No. 4 Boston Versus No. 5 Toronto

Despite the dominance you read below, I say Toronto takes down Boston in 6 games. Here is the Bruins versus Maple Leafs Chart:

Probably quite surprisingly, Toronto’s statistical measurements are better than Boston’s in nine of 10 categories. My notes here:

1. Toronto’s stats lead at every player position. (Who to watch: Reimer, Fraser, Kulemin, Komarov/Kadri and Kessel for the Leafs.)
2. Boston has been a bit discombobulated going down the regular season stretch. Yes, there were injuries. And yes, there were some trades. But I heard some sportscasters say they think Boston can just turn on the jets beginning tonight and take out the Leafs.
3. IF Rask is the kind of goalie – the better-than-Reimer goalie – he is, then Boston can turn this around. IF more than Chara intimidates the Leafs, then Boston can win. IF Lucic, Bergeron, Marchand, Sequin and Jagr can collectively dominate, then Boston can outplay Toronto. And IF Toronto gets consumed by their rabid press, then Boston can propel forward.
4. But IF Toronto takes Game 1, the questions about the Bruins negative, season ending momentum will grow within and consume them.
5. Yes, Boston won the series 3 – 1. But the Bruins played .400 Hockey to close the regular season and have to overcome that ngative tendancy (is lessmentum a word?)

So How Does The Rest Play Out?

We will talk the remainder of the East and how these predictions will affect the overall, potential Round 2 matchups. For tonight, enjoy three more Game 1 contests – may they be as exciting as last night’s triple-header.

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