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Right Wing Conspiracy – 14 MAY 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

Rangers Roll; B’s Knees?

While the New York Rangers were busy blowing out the Washington Capitals 5-0 last night, the Boston Bruins completed an NHL-history-making comeback:  Trailing Toronto 4-1 with 14:31 remaining in the third period, Boston scored three goals – including two in the final 1:22, after pulling goalie Tuukka Rask – to send the game to overtime, then delivered the coup de grace just 6:05 into the extra frame.  Now, the Rangers and Bruins face off in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.  How will that play out?  Here’s my two cents:

Going into this series, the biggest question mark has to be the Bruins’ blueline.  With Andrew Ference on crutches and Dennis Seidenberg leaving last night’s game with a mysterious lower-body injury after just 37 seconds of ice time, Boston is now facing a serious problem.  In Games Six and Seven, New York coach John Tortorella utilized new line combinations:  Hagelin-Stepan-Callahan, Zuccarello-Brassard-Nash, Pyatt-Boyle-Dorsett and Kreider-Richards-Asham.  In the deciding game of the Rangers-Caps series, scoring came from all four lines.  The Bruins’ depleted d-corps will have their hands full…and if Rick Nash breaks out, only a superhuman effort from Tuukka Rask will keep Boston in this series.

Beyond the blueline, the Bruins got past Toronto with just one line (Lucic-Krejci-Horton) firing on all cylinders.  That line tallied 11 goals and 18 assists, while all other B’s forwards combined produced just 5 goals and 11 helpers.  It’s a given that New York will put their top blueline tandem of Girardi and McDonagh up against Boston’s KHL line, so the Bruins will need much more from the likes of Jagr, Marchand, Bergeron and Seguin.

In addition to the above, two key matchups will be the Rangers’ putrid power play (7.1%) against the Bruins’ sub-par penalty kill (76.2%) and, even more important than special teams, the Battle of the Faceoff Circle:  Boston leads all playoff teams, winning 60.0% of their draws against Toronto, while the Rangers are struggling a bit at 49.2%.  If Boston can shore up their blueline and the Rangers can shut down the Bruins’ top line, this series will be decided at the faceoff dot.

Boston has two wild cards:  Jagr’s Butt and Wade Redden’s Revenge.  When Jaromir Jagr is firing on all cylinders, he’s still one of the best puck possession forwards in the game, utilizing his gluteus to the maximus to shield the puck from defenders and keep an offensive zone cycle going, which leads to tired defensemen and scoring chances.  Will Wade Redden exact revenge on the club that buried him in the minors for two long seasons?  Undoubtedly, his motivation factor will be high for this series.  Expect Redden to do what he didn’t do nearly enough to keep him in New York:  shoot the puck.

New York’s wild cards are Rick Nash and the Fourth Line (great name for a band, no?).  Nash is not playing poorly, but he’s definitely been snakebit thus far in the playoffs.  If he can score early in this series and rediscover his mojo, look out.  The new fourth line of Kreider-Richards-Asham was particularly impressive in Game Seven, with Kreider’s drop pass to Asham setting up the Rangers’ first goal (the eventual game-winner).  Aaron Asham scored two goals in the series against Washington, and continued success for the Blueshirts’ fourth line would be very bad news for the B’s.

Prediction:  The Bruins feed off their history-making Game Seven win over Toronto to take Game One against New York, but the Rangers’ four lines will overwhelm Boston’s undermanned blueline.  New York in six.

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 13 May

The 2013 Playoffs continue with two Eastern Conference Game 7’s Tonight!

So how is OGA looking at this? Saturday, we provided predictive analyses indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all weekend games. The odds were not as good to us as they were Friday night. They said incorrectly:

The New York Islanders would win Game 6, which fell short in the OT period.

And the Washington Capitals would win Game 6 (although we said they would likely not)

Correctly, the odds predicted Detroit would win Game 7 against Anaheim, although we said the series would go to the Ducks. Anaheim was two goals short of a win, 1.5% of the total they netted in the regular season, underscoring how close things always are in the NHL.

The odds as we passed them are 5 – 2 / 71.4% for the two blogs.

What do they tell us about our two G7’s tonight? As you will see below, we had to delve a bit deeper on at least one call…

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston, 7pm Eastern on Monday, 13 May. Based on the Win/Loss pattern of both teams and whether teams with those records have won their next game since the 2006 Playoffs, the chances of winning Game 7 are 50/50 for both teams as shown below:

Of interest here is there are only two other instances of this pattern as historically mentioned above. One was a win and one was a loss each way. For Toronto, one was a win on the road and the other a road loss, meaning the same applies to home ice for Boston. Boston retains the slight edge for winning Game 1 in the series. How do we call this, then?

We said prior to Round 1 the stats indicated Toronto would win in six games. Looking at our original stats advantages for total output in 15 categories just for the Playoffs, here is who has what statistical advantage:

Toronto: LW, RW, Team Average, Total Team Skaters, Goalie and Total Team Numbers

Boston: C, D, Goals Scored Per Game

So this game will come down to three things: Goaltending, defense and line matchups.

The nod goes to Toronto’s Reimer in goal who has faced more shots against and still come up with as many wins as Rask. Rask has him in terms of goals against, but this is likely going to be a game like yesterday’s first period was played. Up and down the ice, fire a shot on goal, then back the other way. Reimer is likely Toronto’s best player on the ice right now.

The big question on defense is who makes the first mistake in front of their goaltender. I believe Boston is less likely to do it, so the issue for Toronto will be whether or not the mistake simply allows one more shot to hit Reimer or for the puck to go into the net.

And in terms of line matchups, Randy Carlyle needs to out duel Claude Julien’s changes like he did so well in Game 2 of this series. Carlyle has shown he can order it, and the Leafs’ players have shown their flexibility to make it happen.

As a bottom line here there is no clear-cut set of things to point to for this call. You can flip a coin. We will stick with our original prediction of Toronto as the series victor.

The New York Rangers at Washington 8pm Eastern on Monday, 13 May. Based on historical Win/Loss pattern as mentioned above that we have here, the chances of winning Game 7 are in the New York Rangers’ favor as shown below:

The significant note here is that there are only two, post-last-Lockout Playoff patterns that match the current Win/Loss of the Rangers going into G7. They happen to be from Boston in 2011 and Pittsburgh in 2009, both Cup-winning years for the two teams. They also happen to come from both teams’ Round 4 Stanley Cup victory. These are good omens for the Rangers. So we are going to leave it at that and go with our original call of the Rangers take Round 1 in seven games.

Summary

Tonight, we close out Round 1 action with two, potentially great, G7 matchups. This is for all the marbles to extend deeper into the post-season. Expect lots of great saves, hits and defense, making every goal that much more important.

And if the odds are correct above, Round 2 will look like this:

Eastern Conference: Ottawa @ Pittsburgh and The New York Rangers @ Toronto (a second straight Original Six matchup)

Western Conference: Detroit @ Chicago and San Jose @ Los Angeles

Excitement, no? The potential for another Original Six matchup? A ratings coup of Chicago/Detroit? The chance for an all-Canadian Eastern Conference final? And a potential Chicago/Los Angeles Western Conference final as well? What’s not to love here?

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 11 May

The 2013 Playoffs continue!

So how is OGA looking at this? Yesterday, we provided predictive analysis indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all four games played. The odds did not lie as they correctly led us to pick the winner of all four games. While we cannot guarantee that will continue to be the case, we are going to give you the odds for both Saturday and Sundays’ matchups below.

Note, too, our calls on series winners based on statistical comparison 30 April through 2 May are only batting .500 right now. Right or wrong, we follow up here. San Jose and Ottawa as Round 1 winners were not confirmed by stats comparison and were therefore wrong. We did, however, pick Chicago in five games and Los Angeles in six games which were on the money.

Still to go we have Anaheim in seven to close out the West, Pittsburgh over the Islanders and Toronto over Boston which will take more games than we thought, and the Rangers over Washington in seven.

As for this weekend’s games, let’s look at the odds based on whether or not past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series win their next game and who has the advantage for opening the series as the Game 1 winner…

What Is Ahead?

Pittsburgh at the New York Islanders 7pm Eastern on Saturday, 11 May. Based on the history mentioned above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the New York Islanders’ favor as shown below:

These teams play on back-to-back evenings with a chance Pittsburgh can close out the series against the odds tonight. But they are going to face a tenacious Islanders team to do it. Our bet is, against our original call, a Game 7. The Penguins should pull that one out, however, as the odds above indicate the series win is in their favor based on the Game 1 winner percentage.

Washington at the New York Rangers 4:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Based on history, above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Capitals’ favor as shown below:

Washington also holds the series-winning advantage for a Game 1 victory. The Capitals closing out the series would not uphold our Rangers’ – win – in – seven prediction, however. We say if the odds are wrong, it is here where the Rangers should reasonably be expected to pull out a win and force a G7.

The New York Islanders at Pittsburgh 7pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. We will update this call on Sunday morning, 12 May based on Saturday’s outcome.

Boston at Toronto 7:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Bruins’ favor as shown below:

As with Washington, the odds of winning in Round 1 go to Boston for the Game 1 win. This would also go against our prediction of a Toronto victory, likely stats-tainted by the Bruins’ performance down the stretch. We would argue that the best Maple Leaf on the ice throughout the series has been James Reimer – a trend which needs to continue for our original prediction to come true.

Detroit at Anaheim 10pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 7 are in the Red Wings’ favor as shown below:

This, as you would expect from a G7, holds a conflicted ending when compared to the odds. Anaheim is still the odds-on favorite based on the G1 series win. This game is being played in the Ducks’ barn and we can expect a good show from the home team.

Summary

So tonight, the game odds say the Islanders win on Saturday night and Washington, Boston and Detroit on Sunday with the Penguins/Islanders Sunday call still TBD. We will see if the historical odds come through or we are looking at something closer to what we claimed would happen before the Round 1 series began.

As we said yesterday, the best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 10 May

The 2013 Playoffs continue!

So how is OGA looking at this? On 30 April and 1 and 2 May, we provided predictive analysis for all Round 1 matchups. Our picks gave you predicted winners based on their statistical advantages this season.

I’ll say it. I absolutely got San Jose versus Vancouver wrong. Stating the Canucks would win in seven games and the Sharks coaching staff would be dismissed was exactly wrong. And the stats for goaltending in the regular season had nothing to do with post-season play. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The stats told me to tell you Chicago over Minnesota in five games. THAT was on the money.

And the stats led me to believe Montreal would take Ottawa in six games. I did say the Senators lead in goalie and defenseman statistical categories and that Carey Price was who to watch in this game. That is where this series was won by Ottawa and lost by Montreal.

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston 7pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Based on the records both teams bring into this game and where past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners in their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Toronto’s favor 100% to Boston’s 69%. For Toronto to carry that through to the end of the series, we would have to go to the seventh game. There is only one instance of a team getting to Game 7 with a record of L-W-L-L-W-W as the Maple Leafs would have to do, but that was a win for that team. Overall, however, the Game 1 winner – Boston – takes Round 1 67.9% of the time. That would go against our call of Toronto taking this series.

New York Rangers at Washington 7:30pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Going again to past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners for their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Washington’s favor 100% to New York’s 60%. We said this series would go to a Game 7 with the Rangers pulling it out. But as with Boston, the Game 1 winner takes Round 1 67.9% of the time which would tip toward the Capitals. That would go against our call for the Rangers taking this series. But we see a split in the next two games and then you can flip a coin for the G7.

Anaheim at Detroit 8pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. The past histories since the 2006 Playoffs indicate the chances of winning Game 6 lean in Detroit’s favor 100% to Anaheim’s 50%. That’s OK. We said Anaheim takes this series in seven games and are sticking by that call.

St. Louis at Los Angeles 10pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. And comparing this game once more to history as mentioned above, the edge for winning Game 6 goes to Los Angeles 50% to St. Louis’ 14.3%. We said this series would go to the Kings in six games which would be tonight. It will be a tough fight, however, as this Blues team won’t just fold up tent and mail it in.

Summary

So tonight, we are saying Toronto, Washington, Detroit and Los Angeles have a better chance odds-wise of winning which would only close out the Blues/Kings series.

The best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

Right Wing Conspiracy – 7 MAY 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

The New York Rangers, Three Games In

RWC is a day late this week, as I wanted to write about the Rangers after seeing their performance in Game Three of their playoff series against the Washington Capitals.  After watching the Blueshirts slip past the Caps to secure a critical 4-3 win at Madison Square Garden last night (Washington leads the series, 2-1), I’m left with the following thoughts:

• Wwwwwhhhhheeeeeewwwwww.  That was much too close for comfort.  Ten more seconds on the clock, and Washington might very well have sent the game into overtime.
• The Rangers looked confident and in full control on only one shift – the shift in which Derek Stepan scored the game-winning goal.  From the time the puck entered the offensive zone, the momentum shifted to the Rangers and quickly rose to a crescendo.  Every once in a while, you just know what’s about to happen; so it was with Stepan’s goal.
• The other 59:30, however, New York looked nervous, uncomfortable.  Too many players tried to do too much.  Too many times, blue-on-blue collisions were narrowly avoided.  Too many passes were either in skates or just out of reach.  For too much of the game, the Rangers looked like every team did at the beginning of the season:  disjointed, out of sync, harried.  Though the Capitals can claim some credit for that, the majority of the Blueshirts’ problem lies between their own ears.  Were I John Tortorella, my pep talk prior to Game Four would be short and sweet:  “Guys, you’re not thinkers, you’re hockey players.  So stop thinkin’ and just play hockey.”
• Full credit to New York, though:  Despite their uneven, unconfident performance, they beat a loose, confident Capitals team.  That in itself speaks volumes about the Rangers’ potential and causes the Blueshirt Faithful to wonder what these guys could do if they were healthy and confident.
• Speaking of health…the return of Marc Staal was a huge morale booster for the Rangers, even if his performance was about what you would expect from a guy who hasn’t played in two months and suddenly finds himself in a do-or-die playoff game.  On the downside, Darroll Powe left the game with what can only be a concussion.  His loss is a significant blow to New York’s penalty kill, which finally stopped the bleeding last night, limiting Washington to just one shot on goal in three power play attempts.  As long as Powe is out, expect the PK pairings to be Hagelin-Boyle and Callahan-Stepan.  If Ryane Clowe can go, he’ll take Powe’s spot in the lineup Wednesday; if not, Chris Kreider should suit up.
• Since coming over from Columbus at the trade deadline, Derick Brassard has been reborn.  He looks like the kid who put up 10-15-25 in 31 games before losing the rest of his rookie season to a shoulder injury.  I’ve followed the Blue Jackets closely since Brass was a rookie, and he’s now playing with more confidence and flash than at any time since 08-09.
• John Moore continues to impress, except when handling the puck behind his own net.  His puck handling/decision making behind King Henrik hasn’t cost the Rangers yet, but if he continues to turn the puck over in those situations, it’s going to bite the Blueshirts eventually.
• The Rangers hit yet another post Monday night.  This time, Brad Richards was the unlucky sniper.  In a series in which two of three games have been decided by a single goal, this business of hitting the post, rather than the back of the net, is a real problem.  It’s a statistical anomaly, sure…but in a seven game series, statistical anomalies can kill you.
• Monday’s Game Three win was do-or-die for the Rangers.  They passed that test (barely), but face another do-or-die situation Wednesday night.  If the Blueshirts can skate away with another W, they’ll head back to Washington with momentum in a tied series.  If they take Game Five (and with it, a 3-2 series lead), I’m confident the Rangers will advance.  Right now, however, New York needs a three-game win streak.  They have one.  A chance at two comes tomorrow night.