The Schedule

The teams’ 2012 Series

Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; and Goal Differential.

We also provide CTSA on team performance as a combined average from regular season and through Round 2 of the Playoffs in terms of: Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; odds of Wins and Losses of Round 2, Game 1 and the series as a whole from historical patterns; Round 1 Closing Win Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value. We combine these numbers because Playoff figures are inflated by as much as 1.5 times taken by themselves when compared to the regular season and depending on the category.

After a long layoff for both teams, what does our pattern analysis say about this series?

NYR vs NJD

This matchup is being billed as a fierce rivalry between two opponents separated by a river crossing. True, there has been intense combat between these two teams during the regular season. True outcomes were close. But you have to wonder who will be affected most – the Devils by their long break, or the Rangers by their long series? What does our pattern analysis tell us?

Schedule

Mon, 14 May, 8p (ET) NJD at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Wed, 16 May, 8p (ET) NJD at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Sat, 19 May, 1p (ET) NYR at NJD [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Mon, 21 May, 8p (ET) NYR at NJD [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Wed, 23 May, 8p (ET) NJD at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Fri, 25 May, 8p (ET) NYR at NJD [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Sun, 27 May, 8p (ET) NJD at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

2012 Series

Tue, 20 December NYR 4 @ NJD 1 (New York leads series 1 – 0; Lundqvist defeats Brodeur; NYR goals from Anisimov, Gaborik (2) and Hagelin; NJD goal from Zajac; 52 PIMs)

Tue, 31 January NYR 3 @ NJD 4 SO (Series tied 1 – 1; Brodeur defeats Biron; NJD goals from Parise, Kovalchuk [plus the SO game winner] and Clarkson; NYR goals from Stralman, Boyle and Del Zotto; 12 PIMs)

Tue, 7 February NJD 1 @ NYR 0 (New Jersey leads series 2 – 1; Brodeur defeats Lundqvist; NJD goal from Clarkson; 34 PIMs)

Tue, 27 February NJD 0 @ NYR 2 (Series tied 2 – 2; Lundqvist defeats Brodeur; NYR goals from Hagelin and Callahan; 44 PIMs)

Tue, 6 March NYR 1 @ NJD 4 (New Jersey leads series 3 – 2; Brodeur defeats Lundqvist; NJD goals from Kovalchuk, Clarkson, Carter and Elias; NYR goal from Stepan; 32 PIMs)

Mon, 19 March NJD 2 @ NYR 4 (Series tied 3 – 3; Lundqvist defeats Brodeur; NYR goals from Dubinsky, Girardi, Zuccarello and Stepan; NJD goals from Elias and Sykora; 56 PIMs)

Key Notes: The regular season series ended in a tie with both teams 2 – 1 at home as in the PHX versus LAK series; Lundqvist is 3 – 2 versus Brodeur with Brodeur starting every game in this series for NJD; leading NYR goal scorers are Gaborik and Hagelin (2); leading NJD goal scorer was Clarkson (3); and the series ran a significant average of 38.33 PIMs per game with all but one game including fighting majors.

NYR vs NJD Combined CTSA

After the defeat of BOS and OTT, NYR and NJD both are the next most likely Eastern Conference teams to compete for the Stanley Cup. It was just about a dead heat, however, with NYR holding a less – than – .1 point advantage. Both teams had the same number of statistical calls over or under averages except NYR held the dreaded #1 Conference seed. (NYR – 1.5; NJD –1)

Special teams show as a mixed bag. In the Playoffs only, NJD has the best PP and worst PK while NYR is within average limits. The Rangers hold that average when combining regular season and Playoff numbers. Predictably, NJD is above average / below Hi norm on the PP and below average / above Lo norm on the PK. (NYR – 1.5; NJD –2)

NYR is below both average and norm for Playoff Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak – they have only once produced two consecutive Playoff victories. NJD is only below average in terms of their Longest Winning Streak in the Playoffs. Both teams are right at average in combining regular season and Playoff numbers for these stats. (NYR – 1.5; NJD –2)

Both teams’ Playoff Average Losing Streak and Longest Losing Streak are all but tied. They also are both right on average for these numbers when combined with the regular season. (NYR – 1.5; NJD –2.5)

NJD holds the advantage in terms of Playoff Home and Road records. The Devils’ Home record is the best (.800) of the four remaining Playoff teams while the Rangers’ Road record is the worst (.500). The two are much closer and right in line with averages when combining regular season and Playoff numbers, however. And if you add up the percentages head-to-head, this series requires a Game 7 for a winner to be decided. History suggests Game 6 is th end for Round 3 matchups, however. At a Game 6, NJD is in the lead. (NYR – 2; NJD –2.5)

There have only been two teams to win a series with a L,W,W,W,W pattern since the Lockout. One team lost their first, Round 3 game following the above for an historical 0% chance of a Devils’ Game 1 win. Overall, only two teams have carried a W/L pattern like that forward in the playoffs and they bat a .500. Nobody has produced a W/L pattern like the Rangers in any post-Lockout series, so no call can be made with that reference. In relative terms, NYR has played about eight games in a 15-day span to five games in 10 days for NJD. Fatigue is going to play a factor in Game 1 and beyond. Both teams get a minor minus in this category. [For post-Lockout comparison purposes, teams with an 8-6 record like NYR carries into Round 3 are 0-2, losing in four and five games. Teams with NJD’s 8-4 record going into the 3^rd Round are 3-4 with CHI ’10 winning the Stanley Cup Championship] (NYR – 3.5; NJD –3)

Interestingly, both NYR and NJD’s records in their Last 10 Games are the same as they were to close out the regular season. These numbers put NYR below average in terms of both W’s and L’s in their Last 10, and NJD above average in both categories in terms of combined regular season and Playoff averages. The same goes for their current Winning Streaks. (NYR – 5; NJD –4.5)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

• NJD leads both clubs at the Left Wing position in terms of the highest, by-game statistical average. Both the Devils’ Zack Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk top the Rangers’ LW leader, Brandon Prust in this category. And while New Jersey’s ranking would be the highest at that position for teams still in the playoffs, they do not lose points based on our Ten Pound Bag Theory – combined regular season and Playoff averages are just that. On average. (NYR – 5; NJD –4.5)
• At Center, NJD also has an overall by-game statistical advantage. NYR’s Brian Boyle and Brad Richards are overall leaders at this position in front of the Devils’ Patrick Elias. But after the Rangers’ two leaders, the overall statistical contributions by the rest of NJD’s Pivots give them the Playoff advantage. As with the LW position, however, combined stats for ‘both seasons’ renders the two      clubs right at average. (NYR – 5; NJD –4.5)
• Statistically speaking, the single most dominant player coming into this matchup is New York’s Right Wing Ryan Callahan. Hot on his heels in NJD’s leading statistical player, RW David Clarkson. While Clarkson lead all scorers in these teams’ regular season series, he still is a notch under Callahan in terms of total output. But both teams are right on average in combined regular season/Playoff      numbers. (NYR – 5; NJD –4.5)
• In order, the top four Defensemen in this series statistically speaking are NYR’s Dan Girardi, NJD’s Marek Zidlicky, NYR’s Michael Del Zotto and NJD’s Andy Greene. Those four are followed by the Rangers’ Staal and McDonagh. Overall, this position runs decidedly in New York’s favor. But as with the other skaters’ stats, the two teams come out about average when looking at regular season and Playoff totals. (NYR – 5; NJD –4.5)
• And at the Goalie position on a per-game basis, the Devils’ Martin Brodeur leads the Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist on the strength of his Winning and Saves Percentages. The difference between the two players is slight. But again, when you take into account the “two seasons’ ” numbers, both teams remain at average. (NYR – 5; NJD –4.5)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages through Round 2, NYR has a slight point lead in terms of total combined, by-game stats. (NYR – 5; NJD –5)

Both teams’ grade out at a ‘Low C’ average. But the Rangers’ overall grade is above average / below Hi norm for a slight hit. (NYR – 5.5; NJD –5)

Summary

This series is just about as close as the PHX versus LAK call. How does this one fall out?

NYR wins this series if:

1. Lundqvist is going to have to be just about perfect four times. That could drag this out to a third, consecutive 7-gamer.
2. They, like the LAK’s, can produce some scoring in this round. They need to channel those 28 times in the regular season they scored four or more goals. And the one time they did it against OTT in the Playoffs. They must BE who they have been for less than 1/3 of this season.
3. Hope NJD doesn’t figure out how to overcome the Rangers’ blocking machine.

The Devils win by solving Lundqvist and the sea of blocked shots. It is both that simple and that difficult.

It pains us to have to say this at OGA because we were Rangers fans long before On Goal Analysis (no offense intended, NJites). Our analytical side, however, cannot help but say the numbers and patterns drift just a bit more to the West side of the Hudson River. Since we are forced to make a call, we have to say NJD wins the series in six, close games.

If the Rangers win, it is likely to go seven games and they will get there on heart and perseverance, a good story in anybody’s book.

While some may sound the death knell after Game 1, you can lose that one and still go all the way to Stanley Cup victory just like BOS, ANA or CAR did. The tell in this series, as we indicated in our posting about PHX versus LAK, will be who wins Game 2 as they are undefeated progressing from Round 3 on to Round 4 since the Lockout.

So in our mind, it will be NJD taking on the LAK for the Stanley Cup Final. Let’s see how right we were as Round 3 kicks off….

The Schedule

The teams’ 2012 Series

Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; and Goal Differential.

We also provide CTSA on team performance as a combined average from regular season and through Round 2 of the Playoffs in terms of: Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; odds of Wins and Losses of Round 2, Game 1 and the series as a whole from historical patterns; Round 1 Closing Win Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value. We combine these numbers because Playoff figures are inflated by as much as 1.5 times taken by themselves when compared to the regular season and depending on the category.

After a long layoff for both teams, what does our pattern analysis say about this series?

PHX vs LAK

This is being billed as another, potential “1 – 0 Series” because both teams average less than two goals per game against so far through the Playoffs and that is how all matchups between these opponents ended in the regular season. Or CTSA for goaltenders also indicates PHX and LAK (respectively) produce the best, per-game statistical rating in goal. So the difference will likely come down to a combination of team scoring ability and a crucial mistake in the crease each time these teams play. We said in our Round 2 previews that for LAK to continue on in the playoffs, Quick had to be durn near perfect for four games and they had to find a higher scoring gear for their top players, both of which they did in addition to keeping their defensive game strong. For PHX, we said to beat NSH they had to ‘Mike Smith them to death’ and find another gear for Shane Doan which both happened. So what happens beginning tonight? Nothing less than the onset of a perfect storm.

Schedule

Sun, 13 May, 8p (ET) LAK at PHX [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Tue, 15 May, 9p (ET) LAK at PHX [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Thur, 17 May, 9p (ET) PHX at LAK [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Sun, 20 May, 3p (ET) PHX at LAK [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Tue, 22 May, 9p (ET) LAK at PHX [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Thur, 24 May, 9p (ET) PHX at LAK [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Sat, 26 May, 8p (ET) LAK at PHX [TBD, CBC, RDS – if required]

2012 Series

Thur, 20 October LAK 2 @ PHX 0 (Los Angeles leads series 1 – 0; Quick defeats Smith; LAK goals from Brown and Clifford; 22 PIMs)

Sat, 29 October LAK 2 @ PHX 3 OT (Series tied 1 – 1; Smith defeats Quick; PHX goals from Vrbata (2) and Langkow; LAK goals from Richards and Kopitar; 16 PIMs)

Mon, 26 December PHX 3 @ LAK 4 (Los Angeles leads series 2 – 1; Quick defeats LaBarbera (and McElhinney); LAK goals from Scuderi, Richardson, Mitchell and Brown; PHX goals from Torres (2) and Langkow; 10 PIMs)

Thur, 5 January PHX 0 @ LAK 1 OT (Los Angeles leads series 3 – 1; Quick defeats Smith; LAK goal from Doughty; 4 PIMs)

Thur, 16 February PHX 1 @ LAK 0 (Los Angeles leads series 3 – 2; Smith defeats Quick; PHX goal from Vrbata; 62 PIMs)

Tue, 21 February LAK 4 @ PHX 5 SO (Series tied 3 – 3; Smith defeats Quick; PHX goals from Vrbata (2) and Doan (2) [plus Boedker with the SO winner]; LAK goals from Doughty, Loktionov, Brown and Williams; 23 PIMs)

Key Notes: The regular season series ended in a tie with both teams 2 – 1 at home; Quick won three of six starts, but only two of those were against Smith; Smith won three against Quick, including the last two contests they played back in February; leading PHX goal scorer was Vrbata (5); leading LAK goal scorer was Brown (3); and the series ran modest PIMs at 22.83 per game but with some fighting majors issued.

PHX vs LAK Combined CTSA

Coming in with post-season numbers, PHX would have been the most likely of the two teams to continue on to the Stanley Cup Finals with VAN, DET, NSH, STL and SJS knocked out. Using those Regular Season Wins, Losses, Points, Conference Seed, Goals For, Goals Against and Goal Differential as measured against previous Stanley Cup winners, PHX is the leading team between the two. (PHX –1; LAK –2)

On special teams, the current PP leader is PHX by just about double and LAK leads in the PK by almost 5%. The combined regular season and playoffs numbers only see LAK as below average but above the Lo norm. (PHX – 1; LAK –2.5)

The Kings have dominated in the ‘W’ column despite their PP woes. That means in terms of the Playoff Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak they are right on par while PHX is below average / above the Lo norm. Combining regular season performance with playoff output only nets us PHX at below average / above the Lo norm for Longest Winning Streak, however. (PHX – 1.5; LAK –2.5)

Both teams are perfectly tied in terms of regular season Average Losing Streak. The same goes for Longest Losing Streak at above both average and norm with a “1.” (Note here that no team advancing to Round 3 has dropped more than two games in a row.) For the Playoffs, both clubs are right at average in these categories. (PHX – 1.5; LAK –2.5)

With only one loss so far since mid-April, the LAK are obviously crushing the opposition in terms of Playoff Home and Away records where they beat every team except NJD’s .800 Home record. If you can win 3 – of – 4 at Home and everything on the Road, who can beat you, right? But combining both regular season and Playoff numbers show both teams are right on par with averages in both categories. (PHX – 1.5; LAK –2.5)

For Los Angeles, more post-Lockout teams (13) have carried a 4 – 0 sweep into their next round than any other W/L pattern for teams remaining in the Playoff picture. This includes the last four Stanley Cup Champions and the ’09 and ’08 runners up. Teams carrying a sweep into Round 3 went 2 – 2 in Game 1 of that series and have a .539 chance of winning their next game overall. (PHX – 2; LAK –2.5)

And for Phoenix, no teams have carried a W,W,L,W,W record into the Round 3 and overall teams were 1 – 4 / .200 in their next game after winning a series with that pattern. (PHX – 2.5; LAK –2.5) [For comparison purposes, post-Lockout only PIT '08 went into Round 3 with an 8 - 1 record like LAK and they lost in the Cup Final that year; teams with PHX's 8 - 3 record entering the 3rd Round went 3 - 5 BOS winning the Stanley Cup in '11 and CAR in '06.]

PHX’s 7 – 3 record in their last 10 Playoff games is above average. The two-game W streak they are riding sits at average. When combined with their regular season numbers, their three losses over the last 10 games is above average / below Hi norm. (PHX – 3; LAK –2.5)

The LAK’s .750 record in four Home games coupled with a perfect Road record and five straight wins may give them the best, combined playoff W/L percentage of the four remaining teams. But the average of their regular season and Playoff numbers leaves them just like PHX. (PHX – 3; LAK –3)

When you play out these teams’ Home versus Away winning streaks, you get your first team to four wins with the LAK after Game 6. Note here that the average number of games Stanley Cup Winning Teams (SCWTs) have played in Round 3 since the Lockout is 5.7 games, so advantage goes to LAK here. (PHX – 3.5; LAK –3)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

• PHX leads both clubs at the LW position in terms of the highest, by-game statistical averages. While LAK’s Dustin Penner leads in terms of individual, by-game stats and the overall Playoff percentage of his team’s total effort, the rest of his LW teammates do not quite add up to PHX’s trio of Korpikoski, Pyatt and Whitney who, combined, lead every stats category. Both teams’ average, by-game output is right on par for Playoff teams, however, so no decrement occurs here. (PHX – 3.5; LAK –3)
• The same circumstances at LW repeat themselves at the Center position. Martin Hanzal of PHX is the leader in terms of the individual and overall Playoff percentage numbers. But in stacking all Pivots in this matchup together, next come the LAK’s Richards and Kopitar. For the regular season and Playoff combined average, no decrement occurs here either as both teams are on par. (PHX – 3.5; LAK –3)
• THE most dominant player coming into this matchup is RW Dustin Brown of the LAK. Hands down for everyone skating in front of the goal crease and evidenced by the fact he was the leader after his last series in six stats categories. Shane Doan is the PHX standout at LW, best player on his team and third best forward or defenseman in the contest. But both teams are right on average in combined regular season/Playoff numbers. (PHX – 3.5; LAK –3)
• It is close, but LAK’s Willie Mitchell leads the top, team Defenseman in this contest, just in front of Derek Morris of PHX. The difference is not individual statistical output, but in terms of how much of their stats pack contributes to their team’s overall statistical output. Doughty of LAK is at #3 while Klesla of PHX is in fourth slot. The Playoff averages for the entire defensive corps on both clubs gives Phoenix the above average and Hi norm lead, but combined with the regular season turns out on average as with the three forward positions. (PHX – 3.5; LAK –3)
• At the Goalie position and on a per-game basis, you might not believe it but Mike Smith of PHX has the better numbers in terms of Save % (he has faced more shots), Goals Against Average % and Shootouts. The advantage Quick of LAK has comes in terms of Winning % and TOI where less games played equals less fatigue. The combined, full-season averages give an above average but below Hi norm rating to PHX, however. And when you take into account our Ten Pound Bag Theory, that gives a hit to the Coyotes. (PHX – 4; LAK –3)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages through Round 2, PHX has a slight point lead in terms of total combined, by-game stats. As at the end of Round 1, PHX continues to produce the highest team, by-game stats average in the Playoffs. (PHX – 4; LAK –3.5)

PHX’s current overall team grade is a ‘Low C,’ both for the Playoffs and in a combined average with the regular season. The LAK’s are a ‘High D’ in both categories, but their combined numbers are below average / above Lo norm. (PHX – 4; LAK –4)

Summary

This series is as close as it gets. When we said that going into Round 2 for PHX against NSH, it ended in a 4 – 1 series victory for the Coyotes and contrary to our pre-series call. So how do we settle this one?

PHX wins this series by doing three things: Mike Smith continues to be Mike Smith; Dustin Brown gets shut down; and team defense kicks things up another notch. Throw in goals by Vrbata, Vermette, Doan and Whitney with continued helpers from Yandle and this team sees the Finals.

How is LAK going to land in the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since Gretzky faced the Canadiens in 1993? Start with Quick. Add a pinch more of Brown with a healthy dose of Richards, Kopitar and Carter. And stir in some ever-improving Doughty, Mitchell and Penner, to boot. In effect, kick it up just one more notch.

We say LAK wins the series in six games as just a bit too much for PHX to handle. The tell for this outcome will be the Game 2 winner – all Cup Finalists since the Lockout have won Game 2 of Round 3, the only 100% W/L pattern we have in this Round.

Up next will be NYR versus NJD….

The Schedule

The 2012 Series

Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; and Goal Differential.

We also provide CTSA on tem performance from Round 1 of the Playoffs in terms of: Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; odds of Wins and Losses of Round 2, Game 1 and the series as a whole from historical patterns; Round 1 Closing Win Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value.

How does our analysis call this series?

PHI vs NJD

This is being billed as the 1 – 0 series because everyone believes that is how the games will end. Sure, a defensive / lack of prolific scoring style of game might ensue. But what does our pattern analysis show?

Schedule

Sun, 29 April, 3p (ET) NJD at PHI [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Tue, 1 May, 7:30p (ET) NJD at PHI [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Thur, 3 May, 7:30p (ET) PHI at NJD [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Sun, 6 May, 7:30p (ET) PHI at NJD [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Tue, 8 May, TBD NJD at PHI [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Thur, 10 May, TBD PHI at NJD [TBD, CBC, RDS – if required]

Sat, 12 May, TBD NJD at PHI [TBD, CBC, RDS – if required]

2012 Series

Sat, 8 October PHI 3 @ NJD 0 (Philadelphia leads series 1 – 0; Bryzgalov defeats Brodeur; PHI goals from Giroux, Read and Simmonds; 56 PIMs)

Thur, 3 November NJD 4 @ PHI 3 SO (Series tied 1 – 1; Hedberg defeats Bobrovsky; NJD goals from Parise, Henrique and Clarkson; PHI goals from Rinaldo, Giroux and Talbot; 22 PIMs)

Sat, 21 January PHI 4 @ NJD 1 (Philadelphia leads series 2 – 1; Bryzgalov defeats Brodeur; PHI goals from Read, Hartnell (2) and Simmonds; NJD goal from Ponikarovsky; 76 PIMs)

Sat, 4 February NJD 6 @ PHI 4 (Series tied 2 – 2; Hedberg defeats Bobrovsky and (Bryzgalov); NJD goals from Foster (2), Kovalchuk, Zubrus, Parise and Ponikarovsky; PHI goals from Simmonds, Jagr, Giroux and Voracek; 50 PIMs)

Sun, 11 March PHI 1 @ NJD 4 (New Jersey leads series 3 – 2; Brodeur defeats Bobrovsky; NJD goals from Elias, Volchenkov, Kovalchuk and Parise; PHI goal from Giroux; 28 PIMs)

Tue, 13 March NJD 0 @ PHI 3 (Series tied 3 – 3; Bryzgalov defeats Brodeur; PHI goals from Couturier, Voracek and Briere; 28 PIMs)

Key Notes: This is the only intra-divisional matchup in Round 2; the regular season series ended in a tie; Bryzgalov won three of four starts; leading NJD goal scorer was Parise (3); leading PHI goal scorer was Giroux (4); and the series ran the most average PIMs at 43.3 per game with multiple fighting majors and misconducts issued.

PHI vs NJD CTSA

Using Regular Season Wins, Losses, Points, Conference Seed, Goals For, Goals Against and Goal Differential as measured against previous Stanley Cup winners, PHI is the leading team between the two. This is primarily due to NJD’s Goals Against which are above both average and the norm. (PHI 0; NJD –1)

In the double-edged sword neighborhood, PHI’s Round 1 series with PIT made them look great on the PP – the best of remaining Playoff teams – and second worst on the PK. NJD was the worst PK team.  (PHI – 1; NJD –2)

The Flyers’ Average Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak are right at normal following Round 1. NJD’s numbers are tied as the lowest on both counts with several other teams. PHI’s Average Losing Streak and Longest Losing Streak in the playoffs are both below average and the norm. NJD’s Longest Losing Streak is below average/norm but their Average Losing Streak is normal for the Playoffs (PHI – 3; NJD – 5)

Playoff Home and Away records for the clubs are all .667 except for NJD’s Road record which stands at .500. If you play out those numbers, it suggests PHI wins this series in six games. (PHI – 3; NJD – 5)

No post-Lockout team has carried the Round 1 Win/Loss pattern each of these teams sport going into Round 2. So you have to say the historical odds of either team winning this first Round 2 game are at .500. Overall, no team has carried NJD’s pattern on to the Stanley Cup either. PHI’s pattern resulted in a loss for DAL in Round 3 of 2008 and win for DET in the same round and year. That adds up to a .500 chance for PHI to continue on to the Finals. These patterns, therefore, are not a helpful tool for predictive analysis at this time. (PHI – 3; NJD – 5)

After dropping Games 4 and 5 to PIT, PHI closed out their Round 1 series with a series clenching Game 6 victory for a one-game winning streak. After going down 3 – 2 in the series, NJD came back to win both Game 6 and Game 7 in OT. The two-game winning streak is right at average to close out Round 1 series. (PHI – 4; NJD –5)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

• PHI leads both clubs at every position in terms of overall, by-game statistical averages. PHI leaders by position are: LW – Hartnell; C – Rinaldo; RW – Giroux and D – Grossman. The Flyers’ combined Goalie numbers and individual numbers for Bryzgalov over Brodeur also give them the nudge at that position. The C and G positions are both above average and the norm, working against their overall comparison based on our Ten Pound Bag Theory. (PHI – 6; NJD –5)
• NJD leads in terms of individual stats packs for LW where Parise is dominant. NJD’s Defense corps rates the lowest by-game statistical average of remaining Playoff teams. (PHI – 6; NJD –6)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages, Round 1 performance gives PHI a substantial point lead in terms of total combined, by-game stats. PHI, in fact, produces the highest team, by-game stats average through Round 1.

The telling difference between these two teams is in their base overall grade. PHI is one of only two teams with a grade of “B” (NSH is the other). NJD, like several other teams, nets a “Low C.” (PHI – 6; NJD –6.5)

Summary

This series is as close in terms of the negative takeaways as any of the four Round 2 matchups get. A slight nudge goes to the Flyers, with a lot of their advantage coming from Round 1 offense and negatives from their Playoff-opening Special Teams play.

How does PHI win this series? They need to find a new gear in Goal. One that is strongly confident instead of sometimes sieve-like. They need to keep their explosive offense going as well. And add a spoonful more of defense this series to boot.

How does NJD land in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since before the Lockout? Stellar, shutdown defense and goaltending will erode the offensive confidence the Flyers carry into this series. That absence of scoring at will can create enough dis-ease that they question themselves. Ratcheting up Parise a notch, and Kovalchuk and Elias a couple of gears will also make the biggest of differences in game outcomes.

Our overall call is PHI winning the series in six games. The tell for this outcome will be one win in New Jersey out of the opening four games.

The Schedule

The 2012 Series

Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; and Goal Differential.

We also provide CTSA on tem performance from Round 1 of the Playoffs in terms of: Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; odds of Wins and Losses of Round 2, Game 1 and the series as a whole from historical patterns; Round 1 Closing Win Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value.

How does our analysis call this series?

STL vs LAK

This is being billed as the 1 – 0 series because everyone believes that is how the games will end. Sure, a defensive / lack of prolific scoring style of game might ensue. But what does our pattern analysis show?

Schedule

Sat, 28 April, 7:30p (ET) LAK at STL [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Mon, 30 April, 9p (ET) LAK at STL [CNBC, TSN, RDSI]

Thur, 3 May, 10p (ET) STL at LAK [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Sun, 6 May, 3p (ET) STL at LAK [NBC, TSN, RDS]

Tue, 8 May, TBD LAK at STL [CNBC, TSN, RDSI – if required]

Thur, 10 May, TBD STL at LAK [TBD, TSN, RDS – if required]

Sat, 12 May, TBD LAK at STL [TBD, TSN, RDS – if required]

2012 Series

Tue, 18 October  STL 0 @ LAK 5 (Los Angeles leads series 1 – 0; Quick defeats Halak (and Elliott); LAK goals from Gagne (2), Stoll, Brown and Kopitar; 16 PIMs)

Tue, 22 November LAK 3 @ STL 2 (Los Angeles leads series 2 – 0; Bernier defeats Halak; LAK goals from Kopitar, Richards and Mitchell; STL goals from Steen and Sobotka; 34 PIMs)

Fri, 3 February LAK 0 @ STL 1 (Los Angeles leads series 2 – 1; Quick defeats Elliott; STL goal from Langenbrunner; 4 PIMs)

Thur, 22 March STL 0 @ LAK 1 SO (Los Angeles leads series 2 – 0; Quick defeats Elliott; LAK SO winning goal from Carter; 20 PIMs)

Key Notes: Los Angeles was the king of this series with Quick defeating both Blues’ goalies and winning in both buildings; leading LAK goal scorer was Gagne (2); STL scored three total goals, all from different players; and the series ran an average of 18.5 PIMs per game with four fighting majors issued.

STL vs LAK CTSA

Using Regular Season Wins, Losses, Points, Conference Seed, Goals For, Goals Against and Goal Differential as measured against previous Stanley Cup winners, STL is just barely the most dominant team of the two and the best qualified (along with NSH) in terms of pattern analysis to advance toward winning The Stanley Cup since VAN was knocked out by LAK. (STL – 1.5; LAK –2)

Specialty Teams stats for the two teams’ PKs are relatively close and above the average of teams still in the Playoffs. STL’s PP is about three times better than LAK’s per the statistical package. (STL – 1.5; LAK –2.5)

The Blues’ Average Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak are fueled by coming back from a Game 1 loss to SJS with four straight wins, the only Round 1 team to advance off of that pattern of wins. That works against them when you subscribe to our Ten Pound Bag Theory. The LAK’s numbers for these two categories fall right within averages. (STL – 3.5; LAK – 2.5)

Both teams’ Average Losing Streaks and Longest Losing Streaks are at one game so are a wash. (STL – 3.5; LAK – 2.5)

The Home and Road records of both teams are an interesting study. The LAK are perfect at home and STL is perfect on the Road. STL’s Home record is better than the Kings’ Road performance, however. When you play out these averages, STL comes out ahead in Game 7. (STL – 4.5; LAK –3.5)

Historical odds generated from Round 1 Win/Loss patterns by both teams indicates STL has a 1.0 chance of winning Game 1 of Round 2 while LAK’s odds are at .500. Overall, STL gets a .500 chance of winning the entire series while the Kings only bat a .333. (STL – 4.5; LAK –4)

STL closed out their Round 1 series with four straight wins, giving them potential momentum to continue in the ‘W’ column. The LAK won Game 5 after their only loss to last year’s Western Conference finalist. There is less potential momentum for the Kings there, but confidence should still abound from their series effort. (STL – 5.5; LAK –5)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

• STL leads both clubs at the LW, C and D positions. The Blues’ LW ranking is the highest at that position for all teams still in contention where McDonald, Sobotka, Steen and Perron all statistically outplay any LAK Left Winger. At C, Berglund is the leader of the pack, followed by the top 4 King Centermen. It is only in overall statistical average that STL prevails here. While the Kings’ Mitchell is the top performing Dman, the next four Defenders in terms of stats packs are all STL players who carry the highest by-game average of all defensive corps still in the post-season. (STL – 6; LAK –5)
• Los Angeles leads in terms of stats packs for RW and G. The Kings’ RWs overall average stands as the highest by-game statistical average of all current Playoff teams. The primary reason was the dominance of Brown over the Canucks, a player who will be keyed upon by the Blues for shutdown. And Quick’s performance outpaced the Blues’ effort based primarily on SOG against, Saves and the      lone Shutout between the two clubs. (STL – 6; LAK –6)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages, the LAK lead STL by a couple of points in total combined by-game stats. It should be noted here that these two teams have the highest averages next to PHI of the remaining eight Playoff teams.

The telling difference between these two teams is in their base overall grade. STL rates a “High C” while the LAK net a “Low C.” The nudge has a lot to do with STL’s stats in their four consecutive wins to close out their series, to include their goal scoring average. The LAK are not devoid of scoring capability, just hampered in actual output. (STL – 6; LAK –6.5)

Summary

This series is as statistically close as any of the four Round 2 matchups. A nudge goes to the Blues based on how they came into the Playoffs and closed out their Round 1 matchup. There is just more potential capability there than for the Kings. Sometimes potential is not enough, but in this case, it looks to be just barely so.

How does STL win this series? Keeping the SOG against low with strong defense and Elliott (and/or Halak) coming across as a stone wall would do it. But they will need to add some timely goals from their talented forwards and off of the blue line on the PP as in Round 1 to guarantee a trip to the Western finals.

How does LAK pull off an upset? If they cannot score, they cannot win. So Quick must be durn near perfect four times. Follow that with needing the likes of Brown, Williams, Kopitar, Richards and Carter needing to find a new, higher scoring gear that has not been present in dominating fashion for most of the season.

Our overall call is STL winning the series in seven games. The tell for this outcome will be one win in Los Angeles.

Sunday, 29 April will be our final Round 2 preview blog ahead of NJD at PHI…

The Schedule

The 2012 Series

Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; and Goal Differential.

We also provide CTSA on tem performance from Round 1 of the playoffs in terms of: Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; odds of Wins and Losses of Round 2, Game 1 and the series as a whole from historical patterns; Round 1 Closing Win Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value.

How does our analysis call this series?

NYR vs WSH

What? AGAIN!? This is the third of four possible years these two teams could meet in the playoffs since The Lockout. And the Capitals vanquished the Rangers in the previous two series. So what are we in store for this season?

Schedule

Sat, 28 April, 3p (ET) WSH at NYR [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Mon, 30 April, 7:30p (ET) WSH at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Wed, 2 May, 7:30p (ET) NYR at WSH [NBCSN, CBC, RDS]

Sat, 5 May, 12:30p (ET) NYR at WSH [NBC, CBC, RDS]

Mon, 7 May, 7:30p (ET) WSH at NYR [NBCSN, CBC, RDS – if required]

Wed, 9 May, TBD NYR at WSH [TBD, CBC, RDS – if required]

Sat, 12 May, TBD WSH at NYR [TBD, CBC, RDSI – if required]

2012 Series

Fri, 25 November NYR 6 @ WSH 3 (New York leads series 1 – 0; Lundqvist defeats Neuvirth; NYR goals from Gaborik, Anisimov, Fedotenko (2), Boyle and Richards; WSH goals from Brouwer, Carlson and Ovechkin; 18 PIMs)

Wed, 28 December NYR 1 @ WSH 4 (Series tied 1 – 1; Vokoun defeats Biron; WSH goals from Johansson, Brouwer and Semin (2); NYR goal from Dubinsky; 14 PIMs)

Sun, 12 February WSH 2 @ NYR 3 (New York leads series 2 – 1; Lundqvist defeats Neuvirth; NYR goals from Callahan, McDonagh and Prust; WSH goals from Semin and Carlson; 8 PIMs)

Sat, 7 April WSH 4 @ NYR 1 (Series tied 2 – 2; Holtby defeats Lundqvist; WSH goals from Ovechkin, Perrault, Carlson and Backstrom; NYR goal from Boyle; 16 PIMs)

Key Notes: This series wound up a split; Lundqvist went 2 – 1 playing three different goalies with his single loss to Holtby closing out the regular season; both teams split wins in each other’s building; leading NYR goal scorers in this series are Fedotenko and Boyle (2); leading WSH goal scorers are Carlson and Semin (3); and the series ran an average of 14 PIMs per game with no majors issued.

NYR vs WSH CTSA

Using Regular Season Wins, Losses, Points, Conference Seed, Goals For, Goals Against and Goal Differential as measured against previous Stanley Cup winners, NYR is the most dominant team of the two and the best qualified (along with NJD) in terms of pattern analysis to advance toward winning The Stanley Cup since BOS was knocked out by WSH. (NYR – 1; WSH –3.5)

Specialty Teams stats rank NYR and WSH as pretty similar in terms of statistical effort. WSH gets the nod, however, as they are .2% better on the PP and 6.7% better/second only to PHX on the PK. (NYR – 1.5; WSH –3.5)

Both teams’ Average Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak are equal. Both are also below the average for teams still in Playoff contention. (NYR – 3.5; WSH – 5.5)

WSH’s Average Losing Streak and Longest Losing Streak is also better than NYR’s. (NYR – 4.5; WSH –5.5)

Both teams have a better Home record than their opponent’s Road record. That said, WSH’s Home Record and NYR’s Road record hold the better Winning percentage. These numbers indicate the series has potential for a long, see-saw battle with NYR prevailing in another Game 7. (NYR – 5; WSH –6)

There is no data indicating if either team has a high probability of winning Game 1 of Round 2. This is because no other, similar Win/Loss pattern exists for teams winning Round 1 since the Lockout. Also, no team with NYR’s W/L pattern has won subsequent Playoff series since 2006, so there is no overall indication of success from their Round 1 performance. For WSH, twice their pattern resulted in losses in the Round 3 and once a Stanley Cup victory (for the 2006 Hurricanes). So the Caps have a .333 probability of going on to the Finals against no data for NYR. (NYR – 5; WSH –6)

NYR closed out their Round 1 series having to take Games 6 and 7 back-to-back. A two-game closeout streak is low average. WSH went into BOS and won Game 7 in OT – their one game closeout streak is the Lo number for half of the teams remaining in play. (NYR – 5.5; WSH –7)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

• WSH leads both clubs at the LW, C and G positions. LW and C fall in the Lo/average range and their Goalie is in the Hi/average range for Playoff teams still on the docket. Leading players here in terms of by-game statistics are Ovechkin at LW and Holtby in goal. If NYR’s Boyle is still out, Backstrom is the dominant Centerman in this contest. And Holtby’s lead over Lundqvist comes from more SOG against, Saves and corresponding TOI. (NYR –5.5; WSH –8.5)
• NYR leads in terms of stats packs for RW and D. RW stands as Hi/average while Defense is Lo/ average on a by-game basis when compared to all other current Playoff teams. The Ranger’s Callahan leads Brouwer at RW, and Girardi and McDonagh both lead WSH’s top Defenseman (Carlson) in terms of both by-game and overall team percentage of statistical contribution. (NYR – 6.5; WSH –8.5)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages, NYR leads WSH by a scant .573 points in total combined by-game stats.

Both teams also net an overall statistical grade of “Low C” with NYR toting a 2.943 grade points lead over WSH. Of note here is the Capital’s combined statistical grade is the lowest of the remaining teams.  (NYR – 6.5; WSH –9.5)

Summary

Between these two clubs, historical team statistics and their Round 1 performance indicate NYR should come out ahead. Their advantages really come down to Home and Away Win/Loss percentages and overall, by-position/by-game statistical averages. The margins of error are very close, however, indicating a tough-fought series is ahead.

How does NYR ensure a series victory? Firstly, they must ignore the history of their last two Playoff series with WSH and how the Caps dominated them in MSG to close out the season. Unfortunately, Lundqvist is going to have to be close to perfect again for the Blue Shirts to earn each victory. If they get Boyle and his energy back in this series, that will definitely be a game-changer. And the Rangers’ top performing Dmen need to continue hitting, blocking shots and scoring the odd point.

How does WSH pull off an upset? As we stated in their Round 1 analysis with BOS, if Holtby is the next coming of Ken Dryden, this is likely their series. Also, Ovechkin, who comes in leading all LW’s in statistical output, needs to find his happy place somewhere between his O and d. They will also need Backstrom and Hendricks to kick it up a notch, especially to exploit the absence of Boyle for as long as that goes.

Our overall call is NYR winning the series in seven games. The tell for this outcome will come on 12 May.

Up later is our blog for the Saturday contest between STL and LAK…

VAN vs. LAK –2

STL vs. SJS –1

PHX vs. CHI –1

NSH vs. DET –1

In the Eastern Conference, we were only 50% on winners, correctly selecting NYR and NJD to win their series and missing on BOS and PIT. Of note with the Penguins, our preview of that matchup called for PHI in five or six games, or PIT if it went to a Game 7. But since we said if you held us to it, we would say PIT in seven, we call that a loss. The difference in games is:

NYR vs. OTT 0

BOS vs. WSH –1

FLA vs. NJD 0

PIT vs. PHI –1

Overall, that makes us 6 – of – 8 / 75% and an average of .875 games off of the mark in calling final games.

That all done, we are now staring at the first Game 1 for Round 2 tonight in the PHX versus NSH matchup. For this review, we use the same formula provided for Round 1 in terms of analyzing the following:

The Schedule

The 2012 Series

And finally, Comparative Team Stat Analysis (CTSA) against the Hi, Average and Lo of the previous six, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Champions including: Wins; Losses; Points; Conference Seed; Goals For; Goals Against; Goal Differential; Power Play %; Penalty Kill %; Winning Streak; Longest Winning Streak; Losing Streak; Longest Losing Streak; Home and Away Winning %; Wins and Losses in their Last 10 games played; Closing Game Streak; Average Output Per Game by position; and a total Team Point Value.

How does our analysis call this series?

PHX vs NSH

Both Western Conference series consist of multiple time zone distances between home arenas which contribute to player fatigue. Both NSH and PHX will feel that jetlag each first game played in Music City, U.S.A. But different, relative playing hours are not all that there is to this matchup. So what does our analysis say?

Schedule

Fri, 27 April, 9p (ET) NSH at PHX [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Sun, 29 April, 8p (ET) NSH at PHX [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Wed, 2 May, 9p (ET) PHX at NSH [CNBC, TSN, RDSI]

Fri, 4 May, 7:30p (ET) PHX at NSH [NBCSN, TSN, RDS]

Mon, 7 May, 10p (ET) NSH at PHX [NBCSN, TSN, RDS – if required]

Wed, 9 May, TBD PHX at NSH [TBD, TSN, RDSI – if required]

Fri, 11 May, TBD NSH at PHX [TBD, TSN, RDS – if required]

2012 Series

Thur, 13 October PHX 5 @ NSH 2 (Phoenix leads series 1 – 0; LaBarbera defeats Rinne; PHX goals from Schlemko, Whitney, Korpikoski, Boedker and Doan; NSH goals from Suter and Wilson; 10 PIMs)

Thur, 3 November NSH 3 @ PHX 0 (Series tied 1 – 1; Rinne defeats LaBarbera; NSH goals from Blum, Halischuk and Hornqvist; 10 PIMs)

Tue, 6 December PHX 3 @ NSH 2 (Phoenix leads series 2 – 1; Rinne defeats LaBarbera; PHX goals from Pyatt, Whitney and Yandle; NSH goals from Hillen and Weber; 12 PIMs)

Mon, 12 March NSH 5 @ PHX 4 SO (Series tied 2 – 2; Smith defeats Rinne; NSH goals from Erat, Fisher, Bouillon and Smith; PHX goals from Langkow, Yandle, Ekman-Larsson and Torres; 6 PIMs)

Key Notes: This series wound up an interesting tie; Rinne went 2 – 2 playing LaBarbera three times and losing the nly game he played against Smith in a SO; in every game, the visiting team was the victor; leading PHX goal scorer in this series is Whitney (2); true to form, NSH had 11 different goal scorers all with only one goal, and 12 if you count A.Kostitsyn’s SO game winner; and the series ran an average of 9.5 PIMs per game with no majors issued, indicating we are in for a lot of up–and–down the ice rushes and strong goal tending play.

PHX vs NSH CTSA

Different from our last post for Round 1 is analysis of Playoff, vice Regular Season, Streaks, Next Win or Loss and By-Position stats packs as detailed below.

Using Regular Season Wins, Losses, Points, Conference Seed, Goals For, Goals Against and Goal Differential as measured against previous Stanley Cup winners, NSH is the dominant team between the two and the best qualified team in terms of pattern analysis to advance toward winning The Stanley Cup since VAN was knocked out by the LAK. (PHX – 1; NSH –.5)

Specialty Teams stats rank NSH with the lowest PP of the remaining Playoff teams and PHX with the highest PK. Remembering our Ten Pound Bag Theory about playing effort, these are negative occurrences for both teams which likely will correct as they play more games in the post-season. For the moment, however, they work against the averages. (PHX – 2; NSH –1.5)

PHX’s Winning Streak and Longest Winning Streak averages are both among the lowest of Playoff teams while NSH’s are right about average. (PHX – 4; NSH –1.5)

The Average Losing Streak and Longest Losing Streak for both teams are equal at 1.0 for all numbers. This category is therefore a wash. (PHX – 4; NSH –1.5)

In terms of Winning % both Home and Away, PHX’s Home % is the lowest for teams still in the Playoffs and both teams have the same road record following the 1^st Round. These numbers by themselves indicate NSH coming out on top of PHX by the end of Game 6. (PHX – 5; NSH –1.5)

In measuring both teams’ Round 1 Wins/Loss pattern against all other, similarly patterned teams, PHX has a 1.0 chance of a win for Game 1 of Round 2 while NSH’s probability is only a .667. Overall, neither team’s Round 1 pattern equals that of previous, post-Lockout Stanley Cup Winning Teams (SCWTs). (PHX – 6; NSH –3.5)

PHX ended their series with a Game 6 win after dropping Game 5 for a one-game winning streak. This is below the Round 1 average. NSH is right within the average having won their last three games straight. (PHX – 7; NSH –3.5)

In terms of the average, by–position output per player in 16 statistical categories, the comparison breaks down as follows:

• PHX leads      both clubs at the LW position and is above average/below the Hi number.      All three of their LW’s lead NSH’s on a per-game statistical basis and      boast Whitney with two Regular Season goals against the Predators. NSH’s      LW corps boasts the lowest per-game totals of all teams still in      contention (PHX – 8; NSH –4)
• NSH’s      Centermen barely lead PHX in the pivot category as an overall group. The      top, per-game player is PHX’s Hanzal. But Legwand and Fisher from NSH both      provided a higher percentage of per-game statistical output for their      team. (PHX – 8.5; NSH –4)
• PHX leads in      terms of stats packs for RW and D as well. The Coyotes’ Doan is the leader      at RW over NSH’s Radulov by a good margin. PHX’s Defense as a whole carry      the best numbers, but the Predator’s Weber is the most prolific defenseman      on the ice in this contest and trails only the LAK’s Mitchell in overall      stats pack through Round 1. (PHX – 9; NSH –4)
• You wouldn’t      necessarily guess it, but PHX’s Smith leads Rinne in combined, by-game      statistics based on a larger stats pack for the one more contest he has      faced and the lone Shutout garnered between the two clubs. (PHX – 9; NSH –4.5)

If you add up the by–position, per–game averages, PHX leads NSH at every position except Center with an by-game lead of 5.855 points.

NSH garners an overall statistical grade of “Low B” and the second highest of all teams still in the hunt. PHX draws a “High C” grade.

Summary

Between these two clubs, historical team statistics and their Round 1 performance indicate NSH should come out ahead. This is despite PHX’s statistical lead at every position except Center. Why? Because NSH’s effort is a by-committee game as evidenced by 11 regulation goals in the Regular Season series with the ‘Yotes all scored by different players.

How does NSH ensure they win this series? Continue to play that all–for–one… game they play so well. And it will not hurt for Radulov to continue to improve stats on the Wing and Rinne to stand on his head, again.

How does PHX pull off an upset? Three things: Mike Smith them to death; find another gear for Doan that has him rise above the NSH check; and pressure the Predator blueline to launch more hurried and less accurate SOG.

Our overall call is NSH wins the series in six games. The tell for this outcome is stealing at least one game of the first two in Glendale.

Up later are our blogs for the two Saturday contests…

CHI @ PHX, 10p (ET) – PHX leads series 1-0

Our series call (and all others for Round 1) calls for a PHX victory in seven games. The Game 1 OT outcome indicates another tight rivalry ensues in this series.

We now turn to our by-player, Game 1 analysis of who is having the most impact for their team in terms of total percentage of statistical output for the 16 categories we are watching:

• At LW, Whitney of PHX leads CHI’s Bickell in total statistical numbers. Bickell is the leader in the overall, statistical percentage of team output between the two players, however. This pair of players are so close, the difference for Whitney is TOI in total numbers and SOG for Bickell in overall percentage.
• At C, Hanzal of PHX with the GWG is out playing Kane of CHI in both categories we cover. Hanzal’s GWG in OT, Shooting % and combined 11 Hits and Blocks are the source of the difference. Hanzal will be keyed upon by CHI’s players in Game 2.
• At RW, Doan of PHX is just ahead of CHI’s Hossa in both of our measured categories. Doan’s TOI, Shifts Per Game, Faceoff % and Hits are the difference here.
• At D, Seabrook of CHI leads PHX’s Ekman-Larsson at the Defenseman position in both categories by a decent margin. Seabrook’s one Goal, +/- and six Hits put him out front.
• In G, Smith’s OT Win and Save % for PHX give him better statistical numbers than CHI’s Crawford.

For teams as a whole, PHX’s stats pack barely leads CHI’s. By-position, the leaders are:

• LW – PHX; this position holds the largest discrepancy between the two clubs.
• C – CHI
• RW – CHI
• D – PHX
• G – PHX

STL obviously leads the team stats categories overall 3 – 2. But unlike with SJS in Game 1, PHX’s win comes from the Center position where CHI was dominant overall. This series remains close, and it will take the Coyote’s defensive skill and dominance in goal to win Game 2.

SJS @ STL, 7:30p (ET) – SJS leads series 1-0

Our series call (and all others for Round 1) was for a STL victory in six games. The Game 1 outcome in the 2nd OT indicates a tight rivalry ensues in this series.

We now turn to our by-player, Game 1 analysis of who is having the most impact for their team in terms of total percentage of statistical output for the 16 categories we are watching:

• At LW, Steen of STL leads SJS’ Marleau in both total statistical numbers and those numbers’ overall, statistical percentage of team output. The difference here is Steen’s Assist, SOG, TOI and Shifts Per Game.
• At C, Berglund of STL is out playing Thornton of SJS by a significant margin in both categories we cover. Berglund’s two Goals, +/-, SOG, TOI and Shifts Per Game are the difference.
• At RW, Pavelski of SJS is just ahead of STL’s Oshie in both of our measured categories. Pavelski’s +/- SOG and TOI are the difference.
• At D, Shattenkirk of STL leads SJS’ Boyle at the Defenseman position in both categories. The SOG, Hits and Blocks are the categories Shattenkirk leads in because Boyle has more Points, a better +/- and more TOI.
• In G, Niemi’s Win and Save % for SJS gives him better statistical numbers than STL’s Halak.

What is interesting about all of the individual leaders above is that the distance between each teams’ leaders is small and the team who ‘won’ three position leaders to two failed to take home the Win.

For teams as a whole, STL’s stats pack barely leads the SJS’ despite losing the game. By-position, the leaders are:

• LW – STL
• C – STL
• RW – SJS; this position holds the largest discrepancy between the two clubs.
• D – STL
• G – SJS

With STL leading the team stats categories overall 3 – 2 and losing the game, it might be interesting to note the two that SJS dominated is where th win came from – Havlat at RW for SJS had the game winning goal and Niemi had eight more saves than Halak and the win. All in all, this series is so close statistically speaking that victory is likely to swing the other way in Game 2 and remain a seesaw battle throughout the series at this, sustained pace.

Today’s final analysis of CHI @ PHX will all be posted before their opening faceoffs…

OTT @ NYR, 7p (ET) – NYR leads series 1-0

Our series call (and all others for Round 1) was for a NYR victory in six or seven games. The Rangers were the dominant victor.

By-Player analysis after Game 1 indicates who is having the most impact for their team in terms of total percentage of statistical output for the 16 categories we are watching:

• At LW, Michalek of OTT leads Hagelin of NYR in both total statistical numbers and those numbers’ overall, statistical percentage of team output. Both players have one goal from Game 1. Michalek’s statistical lead comes from TOI and Shifts Per Game. The bigger issue is that the Nos. 2 and 3 LWs are both statistically more dominant tha the Rangers’ No. 2.
• At C, Boyle of NYR is out playing Spezza of OTT in total numbers and by a full 2% of total team output. Boyle’s +/-, Shooting %, and Hits and Blocks put him ahead. It also does not hurt Boyle’s one goal is thegame winner.
• At RW, Callahan of NYR is just ahead of OTT’s Alfredsson in both of our measured categories. Callahan’s +/- and Hits are what put him in front.
• At D, Kuba of OTT outpaces NYR’s Girardi as the leading Defenseman in both categories. Kuba’s SOG and Shifts Per Game are the difference here.
• In G, Lundqvist’s Win and Save % for NYR gives him better statistical numbers than OTT’s Anderson.

For teams as a whole, OTT’s stats pack barely leads the NYR’s. By-position, the leaders are:

• LW – OTT
• C – NYR
• RW – NYR; this position holds the largest discrepancy between the two clubs.
• D – OTT
• G – NYR

Despite the Game 1 score, this is still a close series. If the Rangers cannot find the net for three or more in any game, OTT could be that contest’s victor.

Today’s analysis of SJS @ STL and CHI @ PHX will all be posted before their opening faceoffs…

WSH @ BOS, 3p (ET) – BOS leads series 1-0

Our series call (and all others for Round 1) was for a BOS victory in five or six games. After the 1-0 OT win in Game 1, it looks like the Bruins have some competition from the Capitals.

By-Player analysis after Game 1 indicates who is having the most impact for their team in terms of total percentage of statistical output for the 16 categories we are watching:

• At LW, Ovechkin of WSH is leading Lucic of BOS in terms of both total statistical numbers and those numbers’ overall, statistical percentage of team output. Neither he nor Lucic have a point yet in this series, and his strength comes from his Hits alone. He may be in the positional lead, but until he starts scoring BOS can just stick to their current game plan for Ovie’s coverage.
• At C, Bergeron of BOS leads Laich of WSH in both total numbers and overall, statistical percentage. Of note here is that Kelly, with the game-winning OT goal, and Krejci also lead Laich in total numbers only, so the Bruins are dominating up the middle. Bergeron’s lead comes from SOG and Faceoff %, so expect adjustment in this category depending on play in Game 2.
• At RW, Brouwer of WSH leads Rolston of BOS in both of our measured categories. Brouwer’s lead comes from his TOI and hits and blocks, but it is not lost on us that Rolston got one of the helpers on the game winning goal.
• At D, Alzner of WSH outpaces Chara, BOS’ leading Defenseman, in both categories. While Alzner carries nearly 1% more of his entire team’s output, it comes primarily from his TOI and Shifts Per Game. Said another way, Chara’s numbers are almost a wash for 1:15 less ice time.
• In G, Thomas’ Win and Shutout for BOS gives him better statistical numbers than Holtby. If Holtby had won, the roles would be reversed here, especially in light of his 29 – 17 save advantage.

For teams as a whole, BOS leads the two clubs in statistical output. By-position, the leaders are:

• LW – WSH
• C – BOS
• RW – BOS; this position holds the largest discrepancy between the two clubs.
• D – BOS
• G – BOS

We said games between these two clubs should be close early on with BOS pulling ahead in the 3rd period. It took OT last time, but only 1:18 of it, so we were close to the mark. The statistical differences at Center, Defense and Goaltender are close enough that they could all swing in WSH’s favor today. The Caps must therefore: forget last Thursday’s loss; keep their intensity at LW; improve against the Bruin RW; and increase their output at C, D, and G. If they cannot do all of that, they will likely watch BOS put another victory up on the board.

Today’s analysis of OTT @ NYR, SJS @ STL and CHI @ PHX will all be posted before the 7pm ET puck drop begins…