Blueshirts Battered, Beaten

“…Try not!  Do…or do not.  There is no try.”  –Yoda, to Luke Skywalker

Down two games to none in their best-of-seven Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Boston Bruins, tonight was do-or-do-not time for the New York Rangers.  The Blueshirts did not, allowing two goals in the final frame to lose, 2-1, to the Bruins.  Boston now has a commanding 3-0 series lead.  What happened, and where do the Rangers go from here?

First, a look at what went right for the Rangers in Game Three:

• Henrik Lundqvist was again outstanding between the pipes, making key saves on two breakaways in the first period to buy time for his team to get their collective head screwed on straight.  Lundqvist was the Blueshirts’ best player tonight.
• New York gave up no power plays to Boston…though this was due more to referee error than actually playing a clean game.
• Derek Stepan won 64% of his faceoffs.
• Taylor Pyatt got a (small) piece of a Ryan McDonagh shot for his second goal of the playoffs.
• That’s about it.

What went wrong:

• Other than Stepan, no Ranger won more than 46% of his draws.  On home ice.  Overall, New York won an embarassing 38% of faceoffs.  On home ice (I know; I already said that.  It bears repeating).  Completely unacceptable, and it was a key element in the loss.
• Puck possession was a major problem for the Rangers, due in part to their inability to win faceoffs.
• The New York Rangers power play is now officially the worst I’ve ever seen in my 33 years of hockey fandom.  5.3% – that’s how often they’re scoring with the man advantage in these playoffs.  Tonight’s two adventures on the PP featured a complete lack of structure or puck support, as Ranger forwards seemingly took turns attempting 1-on-4 rushes into the Boston zone, with an infuriatingly predictable result.  At least the Charge of the Light Brigade inspired a memorable poem; the equally misguided New York power play will just get Assistant Coach Mike Sullivan fired.
• The Rangers forecheck – or lack thereof.
• The Rangers near-total inability to generate sustained pressure in the offensive zone.  New York only did this on a couple of shifts.  Those few shifts aside, it was very much a one-shot-at-the-net-and-done affair.
• An undisclosed injury to defenseman Anton Stralman.  Stralman had his head mashed into the end boards in the second period and seemed somewhat disoriented immediately afterward.  He did not return for the third period.
• An apparent injury to Chris Kreider, in the vicinity of his left eye.  Early in the third, B’s forward Tyler Seguin got the blade of his stick up under Kreider’s visor on the follow-through of a shot.  Kreider did not return to the game, and his status is unknown at the time of this writing.

Where do the Rangers go from here?

Putting a positive spin on things, the Blueshirts only have to win the next game.  And the next one.  And the next one.  And the next one.  If they fail to do exactly that, it’s tee time.  Can they do it?  Theoretically, yes.  Will they?  Not with that vomit-inducing power play, they won’t.  And not with Brad Richards, who played just 58 seconds in the third period of Game Three, mired in the worst funk of his career.  So barring a truly miraculous turnaround (or a truly inexplicable collapse by the Bruins), the Rangers are done.

Rangers Roll; B’s Knees?

While the New York Rangers were busy blowing out the Washington Capitals 5-0 last night, the Boston Bruins completed an NHL-history-making comeback:  Trailing Toronto 4-1 with 14:31 remaining in the third period, Boston scored three goals – including two in the final 1:22, after pulling goalie Tuukka Rask – to send the game to overtime, then delivered the coup de grace just 6:05 into the extra frame.  Now, the Rangers and Bruins face off in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.  How will that play out?  Here’s my two cents:

Going into this series, the biggest question mark has to be the Bruins’ blueline.  With Andrew Ference on crutches and Dennis Seidenberg leaving last night’s game with a mysterious lower-body injury after just 37 seconds of ice time, Boston is now facing a serious problem.  In Games Six and Seven, New York coach John Tortorella utilized new line combinations:  Hagelin-Stepan-Callahan, Zuccarello-Brassard-Nash, Pyatt-Boyle-Dorsett and Kreider-Richards-Asham.  In the deciding game of the Rangers-Caps series, scoring came from all four lines.  The Bruins’ depleted d-corps will have their hands full…and if Rick Nash breaks out, only a superhuman effort from Tuukka Rask will keep Boston in this series.

Beyond the blueline, the Bruins got past Toronto with just one line (Lucic-Krejci-Horton) firing on all cylinders.  That line tallied 11 goals and 18 assists, while all other B’s forwards combined produced just 5 goals and 11 helpers.  It’s a given that New York will put their top blueline tandem of Girardi and McDonagh up against Boston’s KHL line, so the Bruins will need much more from the likes of Jagr, Marchand, Bergeron and Seguin.

In addition to the above, two key matchups will be the Rangers’ putrid power play (7.1%) against the Bruins’ sub-par penalty kill (76.2%) and, even more important than special teams, the Battle of the Faceoff Circle:  Boston leads all playoff teams, winning 60.0% of their draws against Toronto, while the Rangers are struggling a bit at 49.2%.  If Boston can shore up their blueline and the Rangers can shut down the Bruins’ top line, this series will be decided at the faceoff dot.

Boston has two wild cards:  Jagr’s Butt and Wade Redden’s Revenge.  When Jaromir Jagr is firing on all cylinders, he’s still one of the best puck possession forwards in the game, utilizing his gluteus to the maximus to shield the puck from defenders and keep an offensive zone cycle going, which leads to tired defensemen and scoring chances.  Will Wade Redden exact revenge on the club that buried him in the minors for two long seasons?  Undoubtedly, his motivation factor will be high for this series.  Expect Redden to do what he didn’t do nearly enough to keep him in New York:  shoot the puck.

New York’s wild cards are Rick Nash and the Fourth Line (great name for a band, no?).  Nash is not playing poorly, but he’s definitely been snakebit thus far in the playoffs.  If he can score early in this series and rediscover his mojo, look out.  The new fourth line of Kreider-Richards-Asham was particularly impressive in Game Seven, with Kreider’s drop pass to Asham setting up the Rangers’ first goal (the eventual game-winner).  Aaron Asham scored two goals in the series against Washington, and continued success for the Blueshirts’ fourth line would be very bad news for the B’s.

Prediction:  The Bruins feed off their history-making Game Seven win over Toronto to take Game One against New York, but the Rangers’ four lines will overwhelm Boston’s undermanned blueline.  New York in six.

So how is OGA looking at this? Saturday, we provided predictive analyses indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all weekend games. The odds were not as good to us as they were Friday night. They said incorrectly:

The New York Islanders would win Game 6, which fell short in the OT period.

And the Washington Capitals would win Game 6 (although we said they would likely not)

Correctly, the odds predicted Detroit would win Game 7 against Anaheim, although we said the series would go to the Ducks. Anaheim was two goals short of a win, 1.5% of the total they netted in the regular season, underscoring how close things always are in the NHL.

The odds as we passed them are 5 – 2 / 71.4% for the two blogs.

What do they tell us about our two G7’s tonight? As you will see below, we had to delve a bit deeper on at least one call…

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston, 7pm Eastern on Monday, 13 May. Based on the Win/Loss pattern of both teams and whether teams with those records have won their next game since the 2006 Playoffs, the chances of winning Game 7 are 50/50 for both teams as shown below:

Of interest here is there are only two other instances of this pattern as historically mentioned above. One was a win and one was a loss each way. For Toronto, one was a win on the road and the other a road loss, meaning the same applies to home ice for Boston. Boston retains the slight edge for winning Game 1 in the series. How do we call this, then?

We said prior to Round 1 the stats indicated Toronto would win in six games. Looking at our original stats advantages for total output in 15 categories just for the Playoffs, here is who has what statistical advantage:

Toronto: LW, RW, Team Average, Total Team Skaters, Goalie and Total Team Numbers

Boston: C, D, Goals Scored Per Game

So this game will come down to three things: Goaltending, defense and line matchups.

The nod goes to Toronto’s Reimer in goal who has faced more shots against and still come up with as many wins as Rask. Rask has him in terms of goals against, but this is likely going to be a game like yesterday’s first period was played. Up and down the ice, fire a shot on goal, then back the other way. Reimer is likely Toronto’s best player on the ice right now.

The big question on defense is who makes the first mistake in front of their goaltender. I believe Boston is less likely to do it, so the issue for Toronto will be whether or not the mistake simply allows one more shot to hit Reimer or for the puck to go into the net.

And in terms of line matchups, Randy Carlyle needs to out duel Claude Julien’s changes like he did so well in Game 2 of this series. Carlyle has shown he can order it, and the Leafs’ players have shown their flexibility to make it happen.

As a bottom line here there is no clear-cut set of things to point to for this call. You can flip a coin. We will stick with our original prediction of Toronto as the series victor.

The New York Rangers at Washington 8pm Eastern on Monday, 13 May. Based on historical Win/Loss pattern as mentioned above that we have here, the chances of winning Game 7 are in the New York Rangers’ favor as shown below:

The significant note here is that there are only two, post-last-Lockout Playoff patterns that match the current Win/Loss of the Rangers going into G7. They happen to be from Boston in 2011 and Pittsburgh in 2009, both Cup-winning years for the two teams. They also happen to come from both teams’ Round 4 Stanley Cup victory. These are good omens for the Rangers. So we are going to leave it at that and go with our original call of the Rangers take Round 1 in seven games.

Summary

Tonight, we close out Round 1 action with two, potentially great, G7 matchups. This is for all the marbles to extend deeper into the post-season. Expect lots of great saves, hits and defense, making every goal that much more important.

And if the odds are correct above, Round 2 will look like this:

Eastern Conference: Ottawa @ Pittsburgh and The New York Rangers @ Toronto (a second straight Original Six matchup)

Western Conference: Detroit @ Chicago and San Jose @ Los Angeles

Excitement, no? The potential for another Original Six matchup? A ratings coup of Chicago/Detroit? The chance for an all-Canadian Eastern Conference final? And a potential Chicago/Los Angeles Western Conference final as well? What’s not to love here?

So how is OGA looking at this? Yesterday, we provided predictive analysis indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all four games played. The odds did not lie as they correctly led us to pick the winner of all four games. While we cannot guarantee that will continue to be the case, we are going to give you the odds for both Saturday and Sundays’ matchups below.

Note, too, our calls on series winners based on statistical comparison 30 April through 2 May are only batting .500 right now. Right or wrong, we follow up here. San Jose and Ottawa as Round 1 winners were not confirmed by stats comparison and were therefore wrong. We did, however, pick Chicago in five games and Los Angeles in six games which were on the money.

Still to go we have Anaheim in seven to close out the West, Pittsburgh over the Islanders and Toronto over Boston which will take more games than we thought, and the Rangers over Washington in seven.

As for this weekend’s games, let’s look at the odds based on whether or not past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series win their next game and who has the advantage for opening the series as the Game 1 winner…

What Is Ahead?

Pittsburgh at the New York Islanders 7pm Eastern on Saturday, 11 May. Based on the history mentioned above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the New York Islanders’ favor as shown below:

These teams play on back-to-back evenings with a chance Pittsburgh can close out the series against the odds tonight. But they are going to face a tenacious Islanders team to do it. Our bet is, against our original call, a Game 7. The Penguins should pull that one out, however, as the odds above indicate the series win is in their favor based on the Game 1 winner percentage.

Washington at the New York Rangers 4:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Based on history, above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Capitals’ favor as shown below:

Washington also holds the series-winning advantage for a Game 1 victory. The Capitals closing out the series would not uphold our Rangers’ – win – in – seven prediction, however. We say if the odds are wrong, it is here where the Rangers should reasonably be expected to pull out a win and force a G7.

The New York Islanders at Pittsburgh 7pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. We will update this call on Sunday morning, 12 May based on Saturday’s outcome.

Boston at Toronto 7:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Bruins’ favor as shown below:

As with Washington, the odds of winning in Round 1 go to Boston for the Game 1 win. This would also go against our prediction of a Toronto victory, likely stats-tainted by the Bruins’ performance down the stretch. We would argue that the best Maple Leaf on the ice throughout the series has been James Reimer – a trend which needs to continue for our original prediction to come true.

Detroit at Anaheim 10pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 7 are in the Red Wings’ favor as shown below:

This, as you would expect from a G7, holds a conflicted ending when compared to the odds. Anaheim is still the odds-on favorite based on the G1 series win. This game is being played in the Ducks’ barn and we can expect a good show from the home team.

Summary

So tonight, the game odds say the Islanders win on Saturday night and Washington, Boston and Detroit on Sunday with the Penguins/Islanders Sunday call still TBD. We will see if the historical odds come through or we are looking at something closer to what we claimed would happen before the Round 1 series began.

As we said yesterday, the best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

So how is OGA looking at this? On 30 April and 1 and 2 May, we provided predictive analysis for all Round 1 matchups. Our picks gave you predicted winners based on their statistical advantages this season.

I’ll say it. I absolutely got San Jose versus Vancouver wrong. Stating the Canucks would win in seven games and the Sharks coaching staff would be dismissed was exactly wrong. And the stats for goaltending in the regular season had nothing to do with post-season play. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The stats told me to tell you Chicago over Minnesota in five games. THAT was on the money.

And the stats led me to believe Montreal would take Ottawa in six games. I did say the Senators lead in goalie and defenseman statistical categories and that Carey Price was who to watch in this game. That is where this series was won by Ottawa and lost by Montreal.

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston 7pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Based on the records both teams bring into this game and where past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners in their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Toronto’s favor 100% to Boston’s 69%. For Toronto to carry that through to the end of the series, we would have to go to the seventh game. There is only one instance of a team getting to Game 7 with a record of L-W-L-L-W-W as the Maple Leafs would have to do, but that was a win for that team. Overall, however, the Game 1 winner – Boston – takes Round 1 67.9% of the time. That would go against our call of Toronto taking this series.

New York Rangers at Washington 7:30pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Going again to past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners for their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Washington’s favor 100% to New York’s 60%. We said this series would go to a Game 7 with the Rangers pulling it out. But as with Boston, the Game 1 winner takes Round 1 67.9% of the time which would tip toward the Capitals. That would go against our call for the Rangers taking this series. But we see a split in the next two games and then you can flip a coin for the G7.

Anaheim at Detroit 8pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. The past histories since the 2006 Playoffs indicate the chances of winning Game 6 lean in Detroit’s favor 100% to Anaheim’s 50%. That’s OK. We said Anaheim takes this series in seven games and are sticking by that call.

St. Louis at Los Angeles 10pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. And comparing this game once more to history as mentioned above, the edge for winning Game 6 goes to Los Angeles 50% to St. Louis’ 14.3%. We said this series would go to the Kings in six games which would be tonight. It will be a tough fight, however, as this Blues team won’t just fold up tent and mail it in.

Summary

So tonight, we are saying Toronto, Washington, Detroit and Los Angeles have a better chance odds-wise of winning which would only close out the Blues/Kings series.

The best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

The New York Rangers, Three Games In

RWC is a day late this week, as I wanted to write about the Rangers after seeing their performance in Game Three of their playoff series against the Washington Capitals.  After watching the Blueshirts slip past the Caps to secure a critical 4-3 win at Madison Square Garden last night (Washington leads the series, 2-1), I’m left with the following thoughts:

• Wwwwwhhhhheeeeeewwwwww.  That was much too close for comfort.  Ten more seconds on the clock, and Washington might very well have sent the game into overtime.
• The Rangers looked confident and in full control on only one shift – the shift in which Derek Stepan scored the game-winning goal.  From the time the puck entered the offensive zone, the momentum shifted to the Rangers and quickly rose to a crescendo.  Every once in a while, you just know what’s about to happen; so it was with Stepan’s goal.
• The other 59:30, however, New York looked nervous, uncomfortable.  Too many players tried to do too much.  Too many times, blue-on-blue collisions were narrowly avoided.  Too many passes were either in skates or just out of reach.  For too much of the game, the Rangers looked like every team did at the beginning of the season:  disjointed, out of sync, harried.  Though the Capitals can claim some credit for that, the majority of the Blueshirts’ problem lies between their own ears.  Were I John Tortorella, my pep talk prior to Game Four would be short and sweet:  “Guys, you’re not thinkers, you’re hockey players.  So stop thinkin’ and just play hockey.”
• Full credit to New York, though:  Despite their uneven, unconfident performance, they beat a loose, confident Capitals team.  That in itself speaks volumes about the Rangers’ potential and causes the Blueshirt Faithful to wonder what these guys could do if they were healthy and confident.
• Speaking of health…the return of Marc Staal was a huge morale booster for the Rangers, even if his performance was about what you would expect from a guy who hasn’t played in two months and suddenly finds himself in a do-or-die playoff game.  On the downside, Darroll Powe left the game with what can only be a concussion.  His loss is a significant blow to New York’s penalty kill, which finally stopped the bleeding last night, limiting Washington to just one shot on goal in three power play attempts.  As long as Powe is out, expect the PK pairings to be Hagelin-Boyle and Callahan-Stepan.  If Ryane Clowe can go, he’ll take Powe’s spot in the lineup Wednesday; if not, Chris Kreider should suit up.
• Since coming over from Columbus at the trade deadline, Derick Brassard has been reborn.  He looks like the kid who put up 10-15-25 in 31 games before losing the rest of his rookie season to a shoulder injury.  I’ve followed the Blue Jackets closely since Brass was a rookie, and he’s now playing with more confidence and flash than at any time since 08-09.
• John Moore continues to impress, except when handling the puck behind his own net.  His puck handling/decision making behind King Henrik hasn’t cost the Rangers yet, but if he continues to turn the puck over in those situations, it’s going to bite the Blueshirts eventually.
• The Rangers hit yet another post Monday night.  This time, Brad Richards was the unlucky sniper.  In a series in which two of three games have been decided by a single goal, this business of hitting the post, rather than the back of the net, is a real problem.  It’s a statistical anomaly, sure…but in a seven game series, statistical anomalies can kill you.
• Monday’s Game Three win was do-or-die for the Rangers.  They passed that test (barely), but face another do-or-die situation Wednesday night.  If the Blueshirts can skate away with another W, they’ll head back to Washington with momentum in a tied series.  If they take Game Five (and with it, a 3-2 series lead), I’m confident the Rangers will advance.  Right now, however, New York needs a three-game win streak.  They have one.  A chance at two comes tomorrow night.

So how does OGA do this? On 1 May, we provided one half of the Eastern Conference’s predictive analysis for Round 1. Here we give you the calls for the last two Eastern Conference series that launch tonight. Call it the Eastern Middles if you will as we take on No. 2 Montreal versus No. 7 Ottawa and No. 3 Washington versus No. 6 the New York Rangers. So we wind up Round 1 predictions tonight.

And don’t forget –it’s the chase for “3.” The first team to it wins the vast majority of the time.

No. 2 Montreal Versus No. 7 Ottawa

I pick Montreal over Ottawa in 6 games. Here is the Montreal versus Ottawa Chart:

As you can see, the Canadiens overmatch the Senators in seven of 10 categories. The big question here is in the numbers, are we seeing the Montreal which went streaky good and streaky mediocre, or are we seeing the effects of a Senators team who persevered through many lost games to injury? Be that as it may, we pick the Canadiens based on the numbers as follows:

Of note going into the Playoffs:

1. The Canadiens are the only team in the playoffs not to hold the lead in terms of both Goalies and Defense. Carey Price is the one to watch for Montreal here.
2. In terms of total statistical output, Phillips and Methot of Ottawa make a better pair than Montreal’s Subban and Georges in terms of each team’s top pair. And Ottawa gets a slight edge going on down into the defensive depth. Could it be size does in deed matter here?
3. Les Canadiens’ Pacioretty, Prust and Eller gave more to their team across the 15 stats categories than the top LW and C for Ottawa.
4. Make no mistake – Chris Neil holds the highest total stats rating of any single player in the East’s list of playoff teams. And if Ottawa was going to knock out Montreal, he will have to be even better.
5. But in overall average for the men out in front of the goaltender, total team average, goals per game, and the regular season series, Montreal pushes ahead.
6. And Ottawa played a tad better down the pike.
7. But Montreal edges out Ottawa in the end. In six games.

No. 3 Washington Versus No. 6 New York Rangers

I say the New York Rangers defeat Washington in 7 games. This is the closest statistical pairing of any playoff matchup. My notes here:

1. The Capitals lead in goal and on defense and LW. Note here it is the TEAM goaltending rating versus any one against Lundqvist and King Henrik could potentially carry games all on his own. (Who to watch: Holtby/Lundqvist in goal and Carlson and Ovechkin from Washington.)
2. The Rangers’ top four Centers and lead RW are strong enough to also carry the stats average for skaters as well. (Who to watch: Stepan, Boyle, Richards, Brassard and Callahan.)
3. Washington’s Goals Per Game and Last 10 games as .850 Hockey lead the two clubs.
4. But total team average and the series between these two teams at 2-to-1 even things out between the clubs.
5. We have a draw here. Statistically. So it comes down to intangibles. We don’t really have any. It’s a feeling then, and that feeling is in favor of the Rangers.

So How Does The Rest Play Out?

If the above all happens as the stats tell us it will, Round 2 will be:

New York Rangers at Pittsburgh, and

Toronto at Montreal

Kinda makes you go Hmmmm… Doesn’t it? We will see. Periodic updates come as the Round continues…

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Not one bit past weeding out the 14 teams who are hitting the links early.

So how does OGA do this? On 30 April, we provided the Western Conference’s predictive analysis for Round 1. Here we give you the calls for the two Eastern Conference series that launch tonight. Call it the Eastern Bookends if you will as we take on No. 1 Pittsburgh versus No. 9 New York Islanders and No. 4 Boston versus No. 5 Toronto. We will wind up Round 1 predictions Thursday night with the East’s middle two seedings.

And don’t forget – statistically speaking – it’s the chase for “3.” The first team to it wins the vast majority of the time.

No. 1 Pittsburgh Versus No. 8 the New York Islanders

I pick Pittsburgh over New York in 4 games. Here is the Pittsburgh versus New York Chart:

As you can see, the Penguins overmatch the Islanders all 10 categories, a larger margin than anything in the West by a full 20%. Of note going into the Playoffs:

1. Pittsburgh is better at all 15 of our statistical categories that the Islanders. (Who to watch: Fleury, Kunitz, Crosby (when he returns), Dupuis and Orpik for Pittsburgh. While his numbers do not make him the top RW, also keep an eye on Iginla for the Pens.)
2. In order, the closest the Islanders come to matching Pittsburgh position-wise are Centermen, LW/D, RW and Goalie.
   1. Tavares’ numbers are better than Crosby’s due to his absence for injury. But they are also better than any other Penguins’ Center, making Johnny T the best one on the ice tonight. After Tavares, all other Centers pretty much equal out until Crosby returns.
   2. At LW, the Isles’ Matt Martin is on top, and Matt Moulson is even better than James Neal due to games lost for injury by Neal. After that, the depth players at LW are better than whatever the Islanders can ice. It is the third pairing on D for the Penguins which stands taller than the Isles’.
   3. The Pens top three RW’s have stats packs that outshine the same players from Long Island.
   4. And the greatest overall gap comes in between the pipes. It is important to note here that the Islanders’ Nabokov – as good as he was for them down the stretch – is only equivalent to the Penguins’ Vokoun statistically. (Who to watch, however, for the Islanders: Tavares, Streit and Nabokov.)
   5. Pittsburgh was .800 down the Last 10 game stretch and only relinquished one loss in five games to the Islanders in the regular season with a +8 goal differential.
   6. In short, the only ways New York pulls out a victory is by Penguins’ error combined with Nabokov standing on his head.

No. 4 Boston Versus No. 5 Toronto

Despite the dominance you read below, I say Toronto takes down Boston in 6 games. Here is the Bruins versus Maple Leafs Chart:

Probably quite surprisingly, Toronto’s statistical measurements are better than Boston’s in nine of 10 categories. My notes here:

1. Toronto’s stats lead at every player position. (Who to watch: Reimer, Fraser, Kulemin, Komarov/Kadri and Kessel for the Leafs.)
2. Boston has been a bit discombobulated going down the regular season stretch. Yes, there were injuries. And yes, there were some trades. But I heard some sportscasters say they think Boston can just turn on the jets beginning tonight and take out the Leafs.
3. IF Rask is the kind of goalie – the better-than-Reimer goalie – he is, then Boston can turn this around. IF more than Chara intimidates the Leafs, then Boston can win. IF Lucic, Bergeron, Marchand, Sequin and Jagr can collectively dominate, then Boston can outplay Toronto. And IF Toronto gets consumed by their rabid press, then Boston can propel forward.
4. But IF Toronto takes Game 1, the questions about the Bruins negative, season ending momentum will grow within and consume them.
5. Yes, Boston won the series 3 – 1. But the Bruins played .400 Hockey to close the regular season and have to overcome that ngative tendancy (is lessmentum a word?)

So How Does The Rest Play Out?

We will talk the remainder of the East and how these predictions will affect the overall, potential Round 2 matchups. For tonight, enjoy three more Game 1 contests – may they be as exciting as last night’s triple-header.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Not one bit past weeding out the 14 teams who are hitting the links early.

So how does OGA do this? If you read the 29 April version of “Right Wing Conspiracy”, you got Big Tex’s calls for the post-season. I am going about this just a bit differently.

Tonight, I give you my predictions rising like a Phoenix (not like a Coyote this season) up out the statistics from this season. For 30 April, and since they lead off with the opening night games, I work over the Western Conference for you. For 1 May, I will have the Eastern Conference calls.

And remember – statistically speaking – it’s the chase for “3.” The first team to it wins the vast majority of the time.

No. 1 Chicago Versus No. 8 Minnesota

I pick Chicago over Minny in 5 games. Here is the Chicago versus Minnesota Chart:

As you can see, the Blackhawks outdistanced the Wild in seven of 10 categories. Of note going into the Playoffs:

1. Chicago out distances Minnesota in terms of goalie and defensive performance. So why/how does it stretch to six games? Ray Emery is not the backup in Game 1 tonight. The ‘Hawks have 31 flavors of confidence in Corey Crawford, but if there is an issue and he is pulled, Carter Hutton is coming in with one game, one loss, and three GA’s. Crawford has a target on his jersey for some close contact tonight. (Who to watch: Emery/Crawford and Seabrook for Chicago)
2. And if Crawford is pulled, the team will fall back on more team defense and, correspondingly, less scoring. With Jonathan Toews as the West’s second-highest rated offensive player in terms of total contribution in 15 different statistical categories, the ‘Hawks also get the statistical nod at the Center position even down one Centerman (Dave Bolland). But Minnesota carries both the LW and RW positions, even without Jason Pominville. (Who to watch: Parise and Clutterbuck/Setoguchi for Minnesota)
3. The overall statistical output of the forwards and defensemen combined also goes to Minnesota.
4. The combination of all players is a stats advantage to Chicago which, based on the above obviously comes from the inclusion of the Crawford/Emery duo – without the duo, the advantage is a little suspect.
5. But Chicago pulls this out also based on their ability to score more than Minnesota, the fact they only had one SO loss against the Wild in three meetings this year and for more momentum off of a better, Last 10 games of the season. It’s just going to take some OT to get it done in a closer-than-expected series in the box scores.

No. 2 Anaheim Versus No. 7 Detroit

Anaheim takes down Detroit in 7 games. Here is the Ducks versus Red Wings Chart:

Anaheim bests Detroit in six of 10 categories. My notes here:

1. As with Chicago, Anaheim has the best numbers in terms of goalie and defensive performance. (Who to watch: Hiller/Fasth and Souray/Beauchemin for Chicago)
2. The exact same stats performance lead at Center and not at LW or RW Chicago had is the lack of advantage for the Ducks against Detroit. (Who to watch: Zetterberg and Franzen for Detroit and Getzlaf for Chicago)
3. But the overall statistical output of the forwards and defensemen combined rests in Anaheim’s favor. Their Goals (Scored) Per Game and Team Total stats numbers are also a plus for Anaheim.
4. This series goes seven games, however, because of a couple of other factors. Firstly, the Ducks only won one of the three contests against Detroit. Also, the Red Wings come into the playoffs with the best close-out winning streak (four games) in the West. And there is always the Red Wing pride to contend with.
5. You can always flip a coin for a Game 7. But you can usually count on the best goaltender, and the defensive play in front of him, to carry that last game. And those numbers belong to the Ducks.

No. 3 Vancouver Versus No. 6 San Jose

Vancouver ousts San Jose in 7 games. The Canucks versus Sharks Chart looks like this:

Vancouver is better than San Jose by a scant five of nine categories. (No one gets the nod for the Last 10 games as both were just about equal.) Notes:

1. Vancouver gets the nod for the best goalie and defensive performance stats. Here Schneider and Niemi are neck-in-neck. But if you have to go to the Number 2 netminder, it’s hands down for Luongo. (Who to watch: Luongo and Edler for Vancouver)
2. As with the other top seeds, Vancouver only tops the list for one position. It happens to be at RW in terms of total statistical output while San Jose holds court at Center and LW. (Who to watch: Marleau and Couture for San Jose and Burrows for Vancouver)
3. San Jose also leads in terms of overall skater average by a SLIM margin.
4. Goals Per Game and Total Team stats – based in large measure on goaltending figures – rests with Vancouver.
5. But interestingly, the Canucks did not take a single game from the Sharks all season, pulling one point in six for the standings. It could be the Sharks had the Canucks number in the shortened regular season.
6. I still like Vancouver, however, in a long series based on either goaltender in net or team defense. And I predict with the loss, next season may see a new coach in San Jose.

No. 4 St. Louis Versus No. 5 Los Angeles

It’s Los Angeles over St. Louis in 6 games. The Canucks versus Sharks Chart looks like this:

The reigning Stanley Cup champions are ahead of the Blues in six of 10 categories. Here are the notes of the breakdown:

1. Los Angeles gets the nod for the best goalie and defensive corps. Goalie is a bit tenuous here – this is neither last year’s Quick nor Elliott/Halak, regular-season duo. So the Goalie call is based on team goaltending. And it seems Voynov and Doughty are the top defensemen in this contest, stats-wise. But the Blues have four defenders (Polak, Jackman, Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk) who are relatively interchangeable. So a slim nod here goes to L.A.
2. Unlike the other top seeds, the Blues statistically carry two of three forward positions with better numbers at LW and Center. One reason is David Backes who is the highest rated forward in the West in terms of the combined, 15 stats categories compared. This helps carry over to the highest averages for those skating forward of the crease. (Who to watch: Sobotka for St. Louis and Brown for Los Angeles)
3. St. Louis – largely on the back of a seemingly transformed Brian Elliott – hold the second best Last 10 games winning percentage behind Chicago and the second best winning streak (three games) behind Detroit. So momentum is on their side.
4. But Goals Per Game, total team stats and a 2 – 0 – 1 series advantage help push the Kings over the top here. St. Louis needs one more year to outdo a team like L.A.

So How Does The Rest Play Out?

If the above come true, Round 2 will be:

Los Angeles at Chicago, and

Vancouver at Anaheim

I will run the numbers later this week and tell you how that plays out. Tonight, enjoy the opening 2013 Playoff games and come back tomorrow for my Eastern Conference picks.

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The 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs:  Were Realignment Foes Right?

During the haggling between the NHL, NHLPA and the owners over realignment for next season, the biggest controversy by far concerned the unbalanced conferences.  With sixteen teams in the East and only fourteen in the West – and eight teams from each conference making the playoffs – one group would seem to have a decided advantage over the other, in terms of qualifying for the postseason.  Simple math indicates 50% of Eastern Conference clubs will make the playoffs, compared to 57% of Western clubs.  How might that disparity play out?  Let’s move this season to next, and see how it looks:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Division D no.1 Pittsburgh (72 pts.) vs. Wild Card no.2 Ottawa (56)

Division C no.1  Montreal (63) vs. Wild Card no.1  Detroit (56)

Division C no.2 Boston (62) vs. Division C no.3 Toronto (57)

Division D no.2 Washington (57) vs. Division D no.3 NY Rangers (56)

In this scenario, Detroit – late of the Western Conference - has replaced the New York Islanders.  Both the Isles and the Columbus Blue Jackets (Western Conference refugees, as well) finish with 55 points and miss the playoffs.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Division B no.1 Chicago (77 pts.) vs. Wild Card no.2 Winnipeg (51)

Division A no.1 Anaheim (66) vs. Wild Card no. 1 San Jose (57)

Division A no.2 Los Angeles (59) vs. Division A no.3 Vancouver (59)

Division B no.2 St. Louis (60) vs. Division B no.3 Minnesota (55)

This is where the train leaves the rails:  Winnipeg, with 51 points, gets an invitation to The Dance, while the Islanders and Blue Jackets, each with 55 points, stay home.  Extrapolating over an 82-game season, it would take 96 points to secure a playoff seed in the East, compared to just 88 in the West.  That’s a HUGE difference, folks.

Given that the NHL has no intention of moving either Detroit or Columbus back into the Western Conference, how can they correct for this disparity?  Two potential solutions come to mind:  1.  Changing the playoff format, or 2.  Expansion.

CHANGING THE PLAYOFF FORMAT

Where playoff formats are concerned, the most equitable is also the most radical:  Eliminate both division and conference playoffs.  The four division winners are seeded 1-4, the next best twelve teams are 5-16.  As a reward for winning their respective divisions, 1-4 get to select their first round opponents.  The remaining clubs are matched up as closely as possible to normal order, i.e., 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, etc.  After the first round, all teams are re-seeded and play proceeds accordingly.  The +/- of this format is fairly straightforward:

• Format ensures top sixteen teams make the playoffs every year, eliminating controversy. (+)
• Significant advantage (reward) goes to division winners by allowing them to pick their first round opponents. (+)
• High potential for increased travel during playoffs, as cross-continental matchups (i.e., Vancouver vs. Florida) could occur in any/every round. (-)
• Playoff travel will be spread more evenly between Eastern and Western conferences. (+)
• Format allows potential for two teams from same division to meet in the Stanley Cup Finals.  (from an American TV ratings perspective, + if it’s Rangers-Penguins, – if it’s Senators-Maple Leafs)

EXPANSION

The NHL’s unbalanced realignment has led to much speculation on the possibility of an expansion to 32 teams.  To this end, Quebec City and Seattle seem to be frontrunners, with a second Toronto team running third.  Kansas City, with its NHL-ready arena, is always part of the conversation, as well.  The biggest question, however, is the status of the Phoenix Coyotes:  Will they stay or will they go?

If the Coyotes move, Seattle would seem a logical destination, as well as one which would allow them to remain in the same division.  Though Kansas City’s name pops up every time a team starts talking relocation, KC will likely always be the guy your girlfriend flirts with to make you jealous, though she has no intention of seriously dating him.  Why not?  Because he’s totally like a big brother to her, that’s why.  Also, his 31st-ranked TV market just doesn’t turn her on.

Television is a significant consideration in both expansion and the potential relocation of the Coyotes.  Though the Thrashers’ move to Winnipeg improved the NHL’s bottom line in the short-term, losing a presence in America’s 8th-ranked TV market could hurt when it comes time to renew the league’s television contract.  Phoenix is ranked 12th, and losing that market without a comparable replacement would be a bitter pill for the NHL to swallow.  For this reason alone, 14th-ranked Seattle is a much more desirable destination than either Quebec City or Toronto.

On the other hand, Houston, the no.10 TV market in America, is a very attractive darkhorse candidate for either relocation or expansion.  The AHL Aeros, who are leaving for Des Moines after the playoffs, averaged 6793 fans per game this season, good for 7th in the league.  According to this spreadsheet, Houston would seem to have the financial resources to support an NHL franchise.  A second team in Texas would fit nicely into the Western Conference’s Division B, where they would benefit from an instant rivalry with the Dallas Stars.  At this point, all Houston lacks is an NHL-level ownership group.

An expansion team in Quebec City seems to be inevitable at this point.  While the league’s bottom line will benefit greatly from the second coming of the Nordiques, the downside is that either Detroit or Columbus will again have to go West.  The Red Wings, with their long-established and loyal fan base, would weather such a move better than the Blue Jackets, but Detroit owner Mike Ilitch undoubtedly has more pull with the league office than his counterpart in Columbus.

The NHL will have 32 teams in the not-too-distant future; bank on it.  Quebec City is a virtual lock for an expansion franchise, which would send either Detroit or Columbus back to the Western Conference.  If the Coyotes move, they’ll either end up in Seattle or Houston.  If Phoenix stays put, the 32nd team in the NHL will either be on Puget Sound or the Houston Ship Channel.  Either way, The Great Game grows, and that’s a good thing.