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OGA’s Monday Hockey Notes For 17 October


You know how the W’s and L’s fell out over the last week. And by now, you know how your team in the Hockey pool has performed (or not).

On Goal Analysis is here to provide you notes about how teams have played against their Game 10 fatigue factors (see https://ongoalanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/oga-believes%e2%80%a6/ ). We also will discuss some teams in terms of their goal scoring profiles where they hold some notable pattern.

Fatigue Notes – Back East

Bruins fans likely do not comprehend the Cup Hangover and their 2-3 record right now. With all other things equal, fatigue factors said the five games they already played were Pick ‘ems against PHI, COL and CHI, a W advantage against TBL and a W disadvantage against CAR. In other words, they should be 2-2-1 instead of 2-3. Fear not, Boston fans. The next game against CAR is a Pick ‘em, and they are at the W advantage versus TOR, SJS and MTL.

Buffalo is 3-1 in the standings with two projected Pick ‘ems in Europe to open the season, a W advantage against CAR and a W disadvantage at PIT. When they should have been 1-2-1 by projection, they are about 1.5 games ahead of the fatigue factors prediction at this point.

Your Carolina Hurricanes first five games included a Pick ‘em versus TBL and a W advantage versus BOS. At WSH, NJD and BUF, the ‘Canes were at a projected disadvantage. So despite the fact I do not like Staal as a Center on my fantasy team with a –8, their 2-2-1 record puts them one W ahead of fatigue projections.

Florida was projected with one disadvantage against NYI and advantages against PIT and TBL. The win over NYI was offset by the loss at PIT,so they are a wash right now.

Montreal was projected at a W disadvantage in Games 1 and 2 and a W advantage in Games 3 and 4, or a 2-2 record. In a fit of unpredictability they: lost Game 1 as expected; won Game 2 against the prediction; dropped Game 3 when they were at the advantage; and lost Game 4 in a SO when they should have won. However, the Habs’ 1-2-1 record only has them about 1/2 game behind the overall prediction.

New Jersey was projected at a W advantage versus PHI, CAR and LAK and a disadvantage against NSH. They are 2-2 against the fatigue factors, but 3-1 in the standings just like they should be overall.

You know the New York Islanders are 3-1. Fatigue factors indicated before Game 1 that over these four games, they would have a Win advantage for two plus were at ‘Pick ‘em’ games for the two against TBL and the NYR. So the Islanders are right about where they should be.

All three of the Rangers’ opening games were Pick ‘ems, so they should be at a relative 1-1-1. Their 0-1-2 start is only 1/2 game behind. You cannot tell Torts that, and you shouldn’t. The Rangers need to be more spectacular to get in the W column for the Rangers’ fan base.

Fretting about Ottawa being 1-4? They were predicted to be at a fatigue W disadvantage and drop contests against DET, TOR and WSH which they did. They were, however, at a W advantage against MIN and COL and lost to the Avalanche. So right now, they are behind by one W.

The Flyers initial four games’ predictions were a Pick ‘em at BOS, a W disadvantage at NJD, and a W advantage versus VAN and LAK. They won the Pick’em by one goal in Boston, defeated New Jersey, and got 1.5 wins out of the VAN and LAK games. At 3-0-1, Philly is one full game ahead of schedule.

Pittsburgh was a concern going into the season with the most difficult fatigue factor predictions through Game 10 in their Conference. With their first four contests at a W disadvantage, Game 5 a Pick ‘em and Game 6 a W advantage, they should be 1-4-1. At 3-1-2, they are overachieving at 2.5 wins above prediction and are the first Eastern team to meet their minimum range  of forecast wins.

Tampa Bay at 1-2-2 had a pre-season projection of two W disadvantages and three Pick ‘ems, or the equivalent of a 1-3-1 record. So the Eastern Conference finalists are not stinking the place out – they are actually about 1/2 game ahead of fatigue projections.

Toronto at 3-0 is right on track with a projected W advantage against MTL, OTT and CGY. This calculated advantage runs through their next two contests against COL and WPG before they are at a disadvantage on their four-game road trip to BOS, MTL, PHI and NYR. Winning the next two and pulling down one or two from that road trip is your actual indication that the team is ahead of pace this season.

The Capitals at 4-0? But what about the three games they won in an OT/SO? In Washington’s first four games, they were projected at a W advantage against CAR and OTT and for a Pick ‘em matchup against both TBL and PIT. If you win Pick ‘ems about 50% of the time, the Caps are only 1/2 a game ahead right now, so manage your fan expectations here.

And finally back East, Winnipeg has yet to prevail in a game. Our fatigue factor predications included one W advantage (versus MTL), a W disadvantage (at CHI) and a Pick ‘em (at PHX). By the predictions, the 0-3 Jets should be 1-1-1, so are about 1.5 games behind. Can they prevail tonight versus a PIT team without Malkin and Crosby when they have the W advantage? Against a wounded Penguins team or not, they need the W to build that confidence that will pull down some W’s over their remaining seven games.

Goal Scoring Rhythms Back East

While it is indeed very early in the season, some goal scoring rhythms come to the forefront and may explain part of your favorite team’s issues.

Buffalo charges hard out of the gate, outscoring the opposition 6-1 in the first 15 minutes of the game. There is potential danger in their being out-scored 3-1 in the final five minutes of regulation, but Coach Ruff is no doubt on top of that subject. While Vanek has scored all of his goals in the 1st and 2nd periods, the only person credited with 3rd period markers is Stafford.

Carolina’s looming goal scoring rhythm issue comes in final 15 minutes of the game where opponents have had the upper hand 8-3.

Montreal’s only note is in the 10:00 – 14:59 stretch of the 3rd period where Moen, Pacioretty, Gionta and Desharnai have scored and opponents have not.

Like Buffalo, the New York Islanders outscore foes in the first 15 minutes of games. Their margin is 5-1, just one goal off from the Sabres’ pace.

When you have not let up many goals like the Rangers, your margins of error are small. For New York, it is being outscored 3-0 in the first 15 minutes of games and playing catch-up the rest of the contest.

For Ottawa, it’s all opponents through the first five minutes of the 3rd period (17-5). In the final 15 minutes, however, they outscore the opposition a more respectable 8-3.

Philadelphia has outscored or matched adversaries in all but the final five minutes of the 2nd period and in OT. But in both cases, they were only outdone 1-0.

Tampa Bay’s worries are in the first 25 minutes of each contest where they are overmatched 11-5.

Is Toronto a flash in the pan? While the opposition has outscored them 2-0 over the first 10 minutes of play, they are equal to or better than all comers from the final 10 minutes of the 1st through the leading 10 minutes of the 3rd. Kessel has four of his five goals stretched out over the final five minutes of each period of play.

And Winnipeg’s worries are almost all game long. They have only succeeded in not being outscored or matched in the final five minutes of the 2d period.

Fatigue Notes – Out West

The 3-1 Anaheim Ducks were predicted right on the mark with a split of the two Pick ‘em games in Europe. And after last night’s goal scoring prowess by the top line coming to life, Ducks fans are ready for more.

Calgary at 1-3 got you Flames’ fans down? The win against MTL and loss against PIT are reversed from our projections. But their fatigue factor has them at a matching 1-3 through the opening four games. We need to see how they will do over the next six games where they have the fatigue advantage in every contest to judge them against the competition.

Chicago was assessed to be at a W disadvantage in DAL, an advantage at home versus DAL and WPG, and in a Pick ‘em game versus BOS. Those predictions are on the mark with the BOS game going to the shootout for a one goal decision. The ‘Hawks are right on track.

Colorado. WOW! you say. A projected win, Pick ‘em and three consecutive losses is all wrong compared to a 4-1 record. We called the fatigue factors straight up for what they were, but this team is playing 2.5 games above itself. And still, there is that nagging little winning rhythm fact that they have alternated making, then not making, the playoffs each year since the Lockout. If the rhythm stays intact, you will see the Avs playing in late April and possibly beyond. (COL joins two other Western teams in meeting their projected wins range floor already this season.)

Columbus fans are not happy at 0-4-1 despite how close the games were. Our own prediction had them as a Pick ‘em, W disadvantage, Pick ‘em, W advantage and Pick ‘em to open the season, or about a 2-2-1 start, so count them as a two game deficit against the fatigue factors.

Dallas was projected with three W advantage games and the W disadvantage contest for Game 2 at CHI. ‘Nough said on those picks. Game 5 against CBJ was a Pick ‘em matchup that DAL won by more than one goal so stands as a No Call for OGA. So the Stars are right on track and fans will take that one, too as Dallas is one of the three Western teams to hit or surpass their wins range floor so far this season.

Detroit, as the ‘Wings often do, are playing above expectations. With a projected W advantage versus OTT and VAN and W disadvantage at COL and MIN, they have won all four contests and are two games above prediction. They are the last of the three Western teams who have met their projected minimum wins range already and could, playing as they are now, easily meet the range ceiling of seven wins by Game 10.

Edmonton’s first three games consisted of two W advantage and one Pick’em games for a projected 2-0-1 record. At 1-1-1, the loss to VAN is what puts them behind about one game at this time.

Los Angeles opened the season with two Pick ‘em games they split in Europe and two projected losses they split at NJD and PHI. For a 1-2-1 projection, their 2-1-1 in the standings has them one full game ahead.

Minnesota shot out the gate right on the predicted mark with a W advantage versus CBJ and W disadvantages at NYI and OTT. Versus EDM, the game was a Pick ‘em and SO win over EDM, and then they lost the W advantage game against DET in OT on a 4-on-3 PP. But at 2-1-2 in the standings, they are 1/2 game ahead of projections.

We snickered after Nashville opened the season with two wins against our predicted two W disadvantaged games, saying, “…They’ll probably drop the next two….” Sorry to jinx you, Predators. But compared to the fatigue factor assessments, Nashville sits 1/2 game ahead of schedule at 2-1-1 in the standings.

Are Coyotes fans howlin’ at their 2-1-1 record? They should be. Common fatigue factors pegged them at 0-3-1 right now. Two games above projection indicates Game 1 may have been more of an anomaly than a rule. With four of their next six games as a W advantage and the other two as Pick ‘ems, you could conceivably see the ‘Yotes with their best 10-game start since the Lockout.

The Sharks’ assessed as at a W advantage for Game 1 and 3 and a disadvantage for Game 2. Their loss to STL stands as the marker putting them one game behind prediction. Hopefully players can get the flu bug run through rather quickly and the team can get back to playing above expectations as they are at the disadvantage in five of their next seven contests.

St. Louis’ Game 1 and 2 were projected as wins, and Games 3 – 5 losses. Their actual 2-3 record is on target against pre-season fatigue factor analysis.

And finally in the West, it seems the Canucks are suffering just a bit from the Cup Hangover like BOS at 2-2-1 after Game 5. But our pre-season fatigue factors called for them to be at 1-3-1 right now. So count Vancouver among the teams playing above projected outcomes against their fatigue factors.

Goal Scoring Rhythms, Western Style

Here is the Western Conference and how is falls out on the goal scoring rhythm charts

Anaheim is outscored 3-0 in the middle of the 2nd period and 2-0 in the last 10 minutes of games.

Calgary’s woes start as the 2nd period opens where they are outscored 10-2 through the first five minutes in the 3rd. Glenncross has scored in every five-minute segment of the 1st period except for the 10:00 to 14:59 stretch.

Is Colorado dominating their opponents? Well, if outscoring them 4-1 in the 1st period and 11-4 from the 10 minute mark of the 2nd until the game is over is domination, the answer is yes.

Columbus fans should note that the ‘Jackets are battling hard. Their collective scoring by period is 2-4, 5-5 and 3-4 in order. They are just about a goal or two away from a win every time.

While Dallas has barely been outscored 5-4 in the 3rd period of play, they double up their opponents 8-4 from mid-way of the 1st through the 2nd period.

Detroit has played opponents evenly through the first five minutes of the 2nd period. But over the following 20 minutes, they have outscored foes 8-0 and hold their own to close out games.

Edmonton plays a relatively even, back and forth scoring rhythm against opponents throughout games save a 3-0 goal spike in the last half of the 1st period. And of note, possibly overmatching older players
with those young legs, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has scored in every period, but all within the last 10 minutes or less.

For Phoenix, the scoring note is Shane Doan who has confined his markers to the last 10 minutes of the 2nd and 3rd periods.

San Jose? Simply put, the 3rd period score is Sharks 0, Everybody Else 5.

For St. Louis, it seems Jason Arnott is the man to watch in the last half of the 3rd period. Except for one assist in the 1st period against CGY, all other points have closed out games.

Vancouver being outscored 8-4 in the 1st period of games is counter-weighted by its 8-3 scoring differential for 15 minutes beginning in the last five of the 2nd.

And A Final Note…

There are three Black and Blue (B&B) Schedule contests on the plate this week (see the OGA Blog post at https://ongoalanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/the-2011-12-nhl-black-blue-schedule/ ).

Florida is at Tampa Bay for Game 2 of the pairing tonight at 7:30pm Eastern on the SUN Network in Florida. This should be broadcast with more emphasis on the word ‘broad(ly)’ as Game 2’s are quite entertaining. If the B&B theory holds up, Tampa Bay will win by one goal in OT/a SO with more penalty minutes than Saturday’s total of 54.

Dallas closes out their B&B pair at Columbus on Tuesday night at 7pm Eastern. Columbus needs this win, and will have to do it without an injured Jeff Carter. Theory says Columbus wins in OT/SO with more than 22 PIMs on the night.

Chicago and Colorado run a B&B pairing at COL on 20 October (9pm Eastern) and at Chicago on 22 October (8:30pm Eastern). Based on the Avalanche’s play lately and the fact it is against the Cup Champs from two years ago, this should be a dandy of a series.

And finally, the BUF at TBL B&B begins on 22 October at 7pm Eastern before continuing in Buffalo the next week.

Summary

Against the fatigue factors, here’s who is ahead of the model:

East: BUF, CAR, PHI, PIT, TBL and WSH

West: COL, DAL, LAK, MIN, NSH, PHX and VAN

Currently breaking even against projections are:

East: FLA, NJD, NYI and TOR

West: ANA, CGY, CHI, DAL and STL

And behind the curve against fatigue factors are:

East: BOS, MTL, NYR, OTT and WPG

West: CBJ, EDM and SJS.

And scoring rhythms of note are:

1st period leaders:

East: BUF, NYI, PHI and TOR

West: COL

1st period trailers:

East: NYR, OTT, TBL and WPG

West: VAN

2nd period leaders:

East: TOR

West: DAL and DET

2nd period trailers:

East: OTT

West: ANA and CGY

3rd period leaders:

East: MTL, OTT and PHI

West: COL and VAN

3rd period trailers:

East: BUF, CAR and WPG

West: ANA, CGY and SJS

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