Below is analysis for the WSH @ BOS 2012 NHL Playoff Game 2 dropping the puck on Saturday, 14 April. We will address the other games today before their starting time.
WSH @ BOS, 3p (ET) – BOS leads series 1-0
Our series call (and all others for Round 1) was for a BOS victory in five or six games. After the 1-0 OT win in Game 1, it looks like the Bruins have some competition from the Capitals.
By-Player analysis after Game 1 indicates who is having the most impact for their team in terms of total percentage of statistical output for the 16 categories we are watching:
- At LW, Ovechkin of WSH is leading Lucic of BOS in terms of both total statistical numbers and those numbers’ overall, statistical percentage of team output. Neither he nor Lucic have a point yet in this series, and his strength comes from his Hits alone. He may be in the positional lead, but until he starts scoring BOS can just stick to their current game plan for Ovie’s coverage.
- At C, Bergeron of BOS leads Laich of WSH in both total numbers and overall, statistical percentage. Of note here is that Kelly, with the game-winning OT goal, and Krejci also lead Laich in total numbers only, so the Bruins are dominating up the middle. Bergeron’s lead comes from SOG and Faceoff %, so expect adjustment in this category depending on play in Game 2.
- At RW, Brouwer of WSH leads Rolston of BOS in both of our measured categories. Brouwer’s lead comes from his TOI and hits and blocks, but it is not lost on us that Rolston got one of the helpers on the game winning goal.
- At D, Alzner of WSH outpaces Chara, BOS’ leading Defenseman, in both categories. While Alzner carries nearly 1% more of his entire team’s output, it comes primarily from his TOI and Shifts Per Game. Said another way, Chara’s numbers are almost a wash for 1:15 less ice time.
- In G, Thomas’ Win and Shutout for BOS gives him better statistical numbers than Holtby. If Holtby had won, the roles would be reversed here, especially in light of his 29 – 17 save advantage.
For teams as a whole, BOS leads the two clubs in statistical output. By-position, the leaders are:
- LW – WSH
- C – BOS
- RW – BOS; this position holds the largest discrepancy between the two clubs.
- D – BOS
- G – BOS
We said games between these two clubs should be close early on with BOS pulling ahead in the 3rd period. It took OT last time, but only 1:18 of it, so we were close to the mark. The statistical differences at Center, Defense and Goaltender are close enough that they could all swing in WSH’s favor today. The Caps must therefore: forget last Thursday’s loss; keep their intensity at LW; improve against the Bruin RW; and increase their output at C, D, and G. If they cannot do all of that, they will likely watch BOS put another victory up on the board.
Today’s analysis of OTT @ NYR, SJS @ STL and CHI @ PHX will all be posted before the 7pm ET puck drop begins…