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Fantasy Drafting In A Lockout World


Aggravation! Fandom blasphemy. Pure, unadulterated bulls@#! This NHL Lockout crap is hacking me – and I assume you – off. Nevertheless, we need to stay mindful of a few things:

  1. Yes, there may be a Lockout/stoppage and games will be lost; but
  2. When they turn on the spigot, your fantasy team needs to be rarin’ to go.

So what can you do? Simple – draft a team that is ready to go right outta the chute with players who begin growing your stats categories right away. In that regard, your first round pick is crucial because you want to start building up a solid performance from the first puck drop. You also want to be mindful if you have an early 2nd round draft pick, which player is a hot starter off the bench so you can snag them to compliment your first round pick.

To help you along, here at OGA, we’re looking at your fantasy draft 1st Round possibilities as you prepare for your draft. This blog assumes you may be drafting with as many as 20 teams in your league. From that assumption, it looks at the top 20 scorers last season and how they performed in their first 10 games. Follow on blogs will do the same for the top 10 defensemen and top five goalies who may find their way into your 1st and/or 2nd round picks.

The Top 20

We did this very simply. We took the top 20 scorers from last year and only looked at their goals, assists, points and +/- in their first 10 games. Yes, the circumstances that produced their first 10 games’ stats may be vastly different this season. Some will be better, and some not so much. But it is as good a reference as any other to determine about where these players can be as the season kicks off.

One big note here. Players you know to have had surgeries and would have been starting the season late, such as a Gaborik (on this list), Kesler or Roy? That late date may wind up being the season opener anyway. And of course, maybe it won’t. But your odds after 15 September with a Lockout in effect are just as good to draft them as not.

Without further ado, here is how the top 20 scorers finished the season:

Image

What can we gather from the top performers? Over the course of the year:

They averaged 80 games played

One 60-, one 50-, and two 40-goal scorers are in the Top 20 (So as your draft trails off to 30-goal scorers, don’t get too upset)

Two 60- and eight 50-assist scorers are in the Top 20 (So 40-to-50 assist scorers are what you are looking for in this category)

Only three players scored over 90 points (You need to weigh your options of trading up in draft order – if you can – or using a large percentage of your Auction Draft budget to secure one of these three players)

Only two players had more than a +20, and another five were better than a +15 (So above +10 is not that bad, here)

For comparative analysis, and understanding that players become more tired, injured and otherwise worn down as the season progresses, in each 10 games played the Top 20 averaged:

Eight games played

Three goals, five assists, and eight points scored

And were almost a +1

And for their per-game average over 80 games, these players were at:

.4 goals, .6 assists, 1.015 points scored

And a +.1

Over the long haul of the season, all of these players were worth keeping despite any temporary slumps they may have suffered because, as a whole, they made up for it.

But our question here is all about the strong start. It is about setting a tone in your fantasy league that you are a force to be reckoned with no matter when the season begins. So right out of the box, how were these Top 20 in their first 10 games last year?

The Opening 10

There is an interesting difference in reviewing Games 1 – 10 for these players. In that regard, we provide you this chart:

Image

A few points about this chart. Firstly, in each category, a dark green box indicates the leading statistic for the group. A light green box indicates numbers above the opening 10-game average. A dark red box indicates the lowest statistic in that category. And on the far right, you will see our recommendations for what number in the draft to contemplate taking that player. (A ‘5’A or ‘5B’ means they are about equal in the fifth slot, so pick your favorite based on personal intangibles.)

In contrast to the season-long, 10-game average, you can see that these players display a bit of a difference as listed below:

+2 goals

+1 assist

+3 points

+.03 in +/-

In other words, earlier on, they scored more, but their +/- was virtually a wash from the end-of-season 10-game average. It is form the scoring that you can expect an early bump in your fantasy league standings from this group.

By the time you get to the end of the season, the per-game averages between the opening 10 games to the finish are very similar. Here are the differences:

+0.056 goals per game

-0.054 assists per game

+0.003 points per game

-0.042 +/- per game

Why, none of those numbers are significantly different. Exactly. That is why drafting good players who remain healthy is the most sure thing you can count on throughout the season – don’t trade or drop them in a short slump or you will regret it!

Some Opening 10 Individuality

Toronto’s Phil Kessel was the hottest October 2011 commodity to fantasy teams by more than double the average number of goals scored. We noted the team lost when he did not register a point. And that would be a general rule as the season progressed, too.

Buffalo’s Jason Pominville and Los Angeles’ Anze Kopitar joined Kessel as the only three players who either led or were above average in all four stats categories we analyzed here.

Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin slid from No.1 overall to No. 4 in this comparison, and Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos dropped from No.2 (with 60 goals) overall to No.10. Both of these players are going to be drafted in your first round, and by Yahoo!NHL’s draft tracking, they will go by the second pick. For the long haul, that is likely a good solution. Just know that they will not potentially start out as hot a commodity as a Kessel, Pominville and/or Kopitar might.

Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson in the only defenseman in this Top 20 group. While we will provide you analysis later on the Top 10 defensemen in their first 10 games, his nearly-a-point-per-game scoring average and +16 make him a likely pick no later than the end of Round 2. If you are the kind of fantasy manager that isn’t going to shoot for a goalie in Round 2 and you see Karlsson still up on the boards with none of these other Top 20 left, he is an intelligent snag.

Pittsburgh’s James Neal tends to draft anywhere from the Top 5 to just into the 2nd round depending on the character of your League.  Yahoo!NHL ranks him at No.15, and he drops from No.7 in scoring at season’s end to our recommended 19th pick in your draft. If hot off the bench is your goal, his eight goals in 10 games to open the season was outstanding. You likely don’t appreciate his Top 20-worst single assist. But remember the team was without Crosby, and even lost Malkin for a game early on, so Neal was relied upon early to pop the twine. Any way you slice it, he is a good late 1st round acquisition.

And New Jersey’s Ilya Kovalchuk started slow, the reason he is our recommended tail-gunner pick. While he began with less than half the points Kessel did and a Top 20-worst –9, that +/- was his lowest final total, and he finished the season with one more point in five less games than the Toronto star. He ranks at No.13 in the Yahoo!NHL order. Our 20th pick recommendation for the opening 10 games means if we continued to carry out our analysis, other players would have potentially had a better opening stats pack. But as a bottom line, he is a good late 1st round pick.

Summary

So there you have an analysis of the Top 20 scorers from the 2011-12 season in the first 10 games they played last year. There is a difference to how fast they start off from the first puck drop, a fact we thought you should see in order to determine how you draft in your opening fantasy league round. But remember their overall, per-game averages are not significantly different from game 10 to season’s end.

Later, we will bring you the Top 10 defensemen and Top 5 goalies which should help you round out your 1st and 2nd draft rounds…

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