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AHL Predictive Analysis – 1 November


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 1 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Thursday, 1 November in order to prepare you for the upcoming 29 game AHL weekend. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they were after the games that night.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. We provide the PQC calls explained below as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As they do so, the standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation. And once we make a call of IN (Chasing Calder) or OUT (Tee Time), we stick by it unless a BAD CALL (Shot Off The Post) notification is made.

Additionally, we also give you projected standings based on team play. Note here that the chart is from early in the season, but we gain more and more accuracy as every game plays out. Remember, however, that projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark.

The 1 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 1 November:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games. (For example, my hometown Houston Aeros’ first PQC call will come after the game they play on 4 November, their Game 10.)

“What Do We Already Know?”

All teams reach the Game 10 (G10) mark for their first PQC calls by Sunday, 11 November.

After games on 1 November, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

Three teams can still possibly receive a Chasing Calder call by Game 10. Another two cannot beat a Sharpening Skates call. The remaining 10 can all potentially make an In The Curve call. (We already know one has.) And it looks like only two Eastern teams will reach and receive their G10 calls this weekend as St. John’s gets to Game 10 on Saturday and Worcester on Sunday.

And on 1 November, the Western Conference PQC status is below:

In the very competitive Western Conference, one team can still reach the Sharpening Skates mark. All other, 14 teams have a shot at an In The Curve call. (We already know seven are going to be ITC.) More Western teams will reach the G10 mark this weekend than in the East. On Friday, 2 Nov it’s Lake Erie for the first G10 call of the season. On Saturday, Rochester and Rockford do likewise. And on Sunday, Charlotte, Chicago, Grand Rapids, Houston and Oklahoma City reach G10 giving us calls on 1/3 of the AHL.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 1 November. There are only three (down from seven) teams in the hunt for a potential Chasing Calder call, and 17 (up from 12) teams we know will not be eliminated from the AHL playoffs come April over the course of the first 10 games’ analysis. Your next update will be posted on Saturday, 3 November following the games played Friday night.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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