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AHL Predictive Analysis – 4 November


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 4 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Sunday, 4 November in order to prepare you for the upcoming 29 game AHL weekend. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 4 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 4 November:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games. (For example, my hometown Houston Aeros’ first PQC call will come after the game they play on 4 November, their Game 10.)

“What Do We Already Know?”

All teams reach the Game 10 (G10) mark for their first PQC calls by Sunday, 14 November.

After games on 4 November, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

As of Sunday night, only three (down from five) teams retain a chance at a Sharpening Skates call by G10.The remaining 12 can all potentially make an In The Curve call. (We now know nine have, up from seven.) Also, 13 teams (up from 12 last night with the addition of Wilkes-Barrie/Scranton) now will not receive a Tee Time, or playoff elimination call, by G10. And we will be ready to pass along the G10 PQC calls for Binghamton and Wilkes-Barrie/Scranton on Thursday morning.

And on 4 November, the Western Conference PQC status is below:

There remains only one Western Conference team that can still reach the Sharpening Skates mark. All other, 14 teams have a shot at an In The Curve call, although three are in danger of something less than that mark. No new teams have joined the un-eliminated group of 13 as of tonight. (We know there are three more teams who will receive an ITC call than the ones listed below.) And we will be ready to pass along the G10 PQC call for Milwaukee on Thursday morning.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 4 November. There are no teams in the hunt for a potential Chasing Calder call at Game 10, and 26 (up from 25) teams we know will not be eliminated from the AHL playoffs come April over the course of the first 10 games’ analysis.

Here is a continuation of your rolling list of PQC calls:

Friday, 2 November 2012, Bradley Arena, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Lake Erie Monsters hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Mile One Centre, St, John’s, NL – Based on their play through Game 10, the St. John’s IceCaps hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, BMO Harris Bank Center, Rockford, IL – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rockford IceHogs hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Charlotte Checkers and Chicago Wolves hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, DCU Center, Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Worcester Sharks hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Oklahoma City Barons hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Grand Rapids Griffins and Houston Aeros hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or just about average for League play

Your next update will be posted on Thursday, 8 November following the games played Wednesday night.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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