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AHL Predictive Analysis – 9 November


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 9 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Friday, 9 November in advance of another upcoming 17 AHL games to close out this weekend. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 9 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 9 November:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games. (For example, my hometown Houston Aeros’ first PQC call will come after the game they play on 9 November, their Game 10.)

“What Do We Already Know?”

All teams reach the Game 10 (G10) mark for their first PQC calls by Saturday, 10 November.

After games on 9 November, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

As of Friday night, two teams earned a PQC call of (SS).The remaining 13 have or still can all potentially make an In The Curve (ITC) call, although one is in danger of something less than that mark. PQC calls for Adirondack, Bridgeport, Connecticut, Hershey, Manchester, Springfield and Syracuse are below. And we will be ready to pass along the final four G10 PQC calls for Albany, Norfolk, Portland and Providence on Sunday morning.

And on 9 November, the Western Conference PQC status is below:

One Western Conference team earned an SS mark for their G10 PQC call. All other, 14 teams have or still can all potentially make an In The Curve (ITC) call, although one is in danger of something less than that mark. PQC calls for Abbotsford, Hamilton and Toronto are below. The final two PQC calls in the Western Conference will be decided tonight in The Lone Star State for Texas and San Antonio and will be posted by Sunday morning.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 9 November. There will be no teams in the hunt for a potential Chasing Calder call at Game 10, and 28 (up from 27) teams we know will not be eliminated from the AHL playoffs come April over the course of the first 10 games’ analysis.

Here is a continuation of your rolling list of PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics):

Friday, 2 November 2012, Bradley Arena, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Lake Erie Monsters hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Mile One Centre, St, John’s, NL – Based on their play through Game 10, the St. John’s IceCaps hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, BMO Harris Bank Center, Rockford, IL – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rockford IceHogs hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Charlotte Checkers and Chicago Wolves hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, DCU Center, Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Worcester Sharks hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Oklahoma City Barons hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Grand Rapids Griffins and Houston Aeros hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Milwaukee Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Binghamton Senators and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 8 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Peoria Rivermen hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Friday, 9 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Manchester Monarchs hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Springfield Falcons hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the playoffs and the Connecticut Whale are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Dunkin’ Donuts Center, Providence, RI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Albany River Rats hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Adirondack Phantoms hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Hershey Bears hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Syracuse Crunch hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the playoffs and the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Toronto Marlies hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Abbotsford Heat of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the playoffs

Your next update will be posted on Sunday, 11 November following the games played Saturday night.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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