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AHL Predictive Analysis – 17 November


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 17 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Saturday, 17 November. (Our apologies or the technical difficulties that preempted reports on 16 November.) What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 17 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 17 November:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

All AHL teams reach their G20 call between 28 November (Rockford and St. John’s) and 9 December (Albany). It looks like teams will need 82 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs.

After games on 17 November, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

After Saturday night, six teams (down from 14) still have a chance at a Chasing Calder (CC) call, although it should be noted one OT/SO loss by two teams drops all of them to a maximum of Sharpening Skates (SS). At present, five teams cannot best a SS call and four team cannot surpass an ITC call once G20 rolls around. And right now, three teams are not in the running for a Tee Time (elimination) call.

And on 17 November, the Western Conference PQC status is below:

Final Game 10 adjustments to the PQC indicate six teams (down from 10) still have a chance at a CC, with any loss between now and G20 dropping two teams to at or below a maximum of SS. Three teams already cannot surpass an SS, and six more already cannot beat an ITC call at G20. We already know the five teams indicated will not be at Tee Time come G20.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 17 November. Going into this weekend, 12 teams can still reach a Chasing Calder PQC call (down from 20) with four of them on the bubble not to drop any games or they fall somewhat shorter than that. There are still five games on the AHL docket on the Sunday before U.S. Thanksgiving week and things can still change PQC-wise.

Below is a final rolling list of all G10 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics – we will drop the last, G10 PQC call for teams once they hit their G20):

Friday, 2 November 2012, Bradley Arena, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Lake Erie Monsters hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Mile One Centre, St, John’s, NL – Based on their play through Game 10, the St. John’s IceCaps hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, BMO Harris Bank Center, Rockford, IL – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rockford IceHogs hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Charlotte Checkers and Chicago Wolves hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, DCU Center, Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Worcester Sharks hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Oklahoma City Barons hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Grand Rapids Griffins and Houston Aeros hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Milwaukee Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Binghamton Senators and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 8 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Peoria Rivermen hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Friday, 9 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Manchester Monarchs hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Springfield Falcons hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Connecticut Whale are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Adirondack Phantoms hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Hershey Bears hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Syracuse Crunch hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Toronto Marlies hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Abbotsford Heat of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Times Union Center, Albany, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Albany Devils hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Providence Bruins hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Norfolk Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Portland Pirates hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the San Antonio Rampage hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Texas Stars hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Your next update will be posted on Sunday, 18 November following games played through then.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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