AHL Predictive Analysis – 28 November

(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 28 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Wednesday, 28 November. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 28 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 28 November:

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

All AHL teams reach their G20 call beginning 28 November for Rockford and St. John’s (see “G20’s” below for their Game 20 PQC call) and 9 December (Albany). Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 85 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs.

After games on 28 November, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

After Wednesday night, three Eastern teams still have a chance at a Chasing Calder (CC) call, two more cannot beat Sharpening Skates (SS), and another nine cannot surpass In The Curve (ITC). As it states below, St. John’s remains an ITC team. We already know 12 teams will not be at Tee Time (TT) after 20 games. And of course, 12 of 15 Eastern Conference teams will be at G20 by the end of next weekend.

And on 28 November, Western Conference PQC status is below:

At this point in the schedule, we already know one Western Conference team WILL be at CC by G20 and another three still have a chance to get there. (All three of those with the opportunity need to win out through Game 20, however.) No teams can attain a maximum of SS right now, while nine others will not top ITC in a conference that looks to require 81 points to hold a Top Eight slot. We also already know one team will be at Tee Time come G20. Look for PQC calls on 11 of 15 Western teams by the end of next weekend, to include both our CC and TT teams mentioned above.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 28 November. Going into this weekend, 20 teams can still reach a Chasing Calder PQC call with 12 of them on the bubble not to drop any games or they fall somewhat shorter than that. There are 31 games on the AHL docket going into the U.S. Thanksgiving week and things are sure to change PQC-wise.

Below is a final rolling list of all G20 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics – we will drop the last, G10 PQC call for teams once they hit their G20).

G20’s:

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the St. John’s IceCaps continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rockford IceHogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

G10’s:

Friday, 2 November 2012, Bradley Arena, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Lake Erie Monsters hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Charlotte Checkers and Chicago Wolves hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, DCU Center, Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Worcester Sharks hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Oklahoma City Barons hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Grand Rapids Griffins and Houston Aeros hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Milwaukee Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Binghamton Senators and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 8 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Peoria Rivermen hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Friday, 9 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Manchester Monarchs hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Springfield Falcons hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Connecticut Whale are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Adirondack Phantoms hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Hershey Bears hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Syracuse Crunch hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Toronto Marlies hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Abbotsford Heat of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Times Union Center, Albany, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Albany Devils hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Providence Bruins hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Norfolk Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Portland Pirates hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the San Antonio Rampage hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Texas Stars hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Your next update will be posted on Thursday, 29 November following games played through Wednesday, 28 November with two Game 20 PQC calls.

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