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AHL Predictive Analysis – 30 November


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 30 November Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Friday, 30 November. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 30 November Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 30 November:

AHL_30Nov

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘TT’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or TT. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

All AHL teams reach their G20 call between 28 November for Rockford and St. John’s (see “G20’s” below for their Game 20 PQC call) and 9 December (Albany). Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 81 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs and for teams out West to earn 84.

After games on 30 November, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

EastG20

Following Friday night, three Eastern teams still have a chance at a Chasing Calder (CC) call, one more (down from two) cannot beat Sharpening Skates (SS), and another 11 (up from nine) cannot surpass In The Curve (ITC). As it states below, St. John’s remains an ITC team and is now joined by Hershey. We are already sure 13 (up from 12) teams will not be at Tee Time (TT) after 20 games. And we are still tracking that 12 of 15 Eastern Conference teams will be at G20 by the end of this weekend.

And on 30 November, Western Conference PQC status is below:

WestG20

At this point in the schedule, we already know one Western Conference team WILL be at CC by G20 with that call coming after tonight’s round of games. Only one other (down from three) also still has a chance to get there. No teams can attain a maximum of SS right now, while 12 (up from nine) others will not top ITC along with Rockford, Oklahoma City, Houston and Lake Erie. We will also drop our first Tee Time call for G20 after tonight’s games. Look for PQC calls on 11 of 15 Western teams by the end of this weekend, to include both our CC and TT teams mentioned above.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 30 November. Going into this weekend, one team already is at a Chasing Calder PQC call, three more either will or won’t be a CC by the time games conclude on Sunday, and one more has a chance to get there but we won’t know their status for another week. One Western team will be a Tee Time call tonight and for more are on the bubble for an early exit from Playoff contention. There are 21 games left on the AHL docket for this weekend and all of them count PQC-wise.

Below is a final rolling list of all G20 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics – we will drop the last, G10 PQC call for teams as they hit their G20).

G20’s:

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the St. John’s IceCaps continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Rockford IceHogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Hershey Bears continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Oklahoma City Barons and Houston Aeros continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the Lake Erie Monsters continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

G10’s:

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Charlotte Checkers and Chicago Wolves hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, DCU Center, Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Worcester Sharks hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Oklahoma City Barons hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Grand Rapids Griffins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Milwaukee Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Binghamton Senators and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 8 November 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Peoria Rivermen hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Friday, 9 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Manchester Monarchs hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Springfield Falcons hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Connecticut Whale are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Adirondack Phantoms hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Syracuse Crunch hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Toronto Marlies hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Abbotsford Heat of Sharpening Skates or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Times Union Center, Albany, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Albany Devils hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Providence Bruins hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Norfolk Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Portland Pirates hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the San Antonio Rampage hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Cedar Park Center, Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Texas Stars hold a PQC rating of Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from a 2013 Calder Cup Playoff seed

Your next update will be posted on Sunday, 2 December following games played through Saturday, 1 December with 10 Game 20 PQC calls.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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