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AHL Predictive Analysis – 2 December


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 2 December Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Sunday, 2 December. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 2 December Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 2 December:

AHL_2Dec

Note our projected separation from 8th seed to 10th in the East is one OT/SO loss, and from 8th seed through 11th seed in the West is approximately 1.5 wins.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

All AHL teams reach their G20 call between 28 November for Rockford and St. John’s (see “G20′s” below for their Game 20 PQC call) and 9 December (Albany). Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 80 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs and for teams out West to earn 84.

After games on 2 December, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

EastG20

Following Sunday night, we have a more clear G20 picture. Firstly, we can confirm that Springfield and Syracuse have both earned Chasing Calder (CC) calls and will, in our opinion, be IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs. One more team is also still in the CC hunt by their G20 call. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton remains the East’s only Sharpening Skates (SS) call, just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs. Another 11 teams cannot surpass In The Curve (ITC) with one of them potentially a Tee Time (T2) call if they do not continue to win through next week. Bridgeport, Connecticut and Norfolk have joined Adirondack, Manchester, Portland, Worcester, St. John’s and Hershey as ITC teams Sunday night. At this point we are still tracking that every Eastern team has a chance to obtain at least an ITC call by Game 20, but stand by – there will be three more PQC calls ‘back East’ on 7, 8 and 9 December.

And on 2 December, Western Conference PQC status is below:

WestG20

Abbotsford still remains the West’s first CC team this season at the G20 mark. As we reported yesterday, Charlotte is at the SS level, just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs. While 11 other Western teams can still reach the ITC mark (Texas joined Chicago, Toronto, Rockford, Oklahoma City, Houston and Lake Erie there Sunday night), one more team is on the bubble for a potential T2 call. Speaking of T2, or OUT of the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs, Peoria has now joined San Antonio out on the links come April. And four more PQC calls come from ‘out West’ by 8 December.

Summary

So above you have it – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 2 December. Based on our analysis, three teams are already IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and two more are OUT. By the time the last team reaches the G20 mark, one more team may be at a Chasing Calder call with two others at Tee Time. Everyone else lives on another day to scrap for a chance to make the playoffs.

Below is a final rolling list of all G20 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics – we will drop the last, G10 PQC call for teams as they hit their G20).

G20’s:

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the St. John’s IceCaps continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Rockford IceHogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Hershey Bears continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Oklahoma City Barons and Houston Aeros continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the Lake Erie Monsters continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the San Antonio Rampage are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Adirondack Phantoms continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Webster Bank Arena, Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Worcester Sharks continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Charlotte Checkers continue to hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or above average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Cumberland County Civic Center, Portland, ME – Based on their play through Game 20, the Portland Pirates continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Manchester Monarchs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Ricoh Coliseum, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through Game 20, the Toronto Marlies continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or above average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Chicago Wolves continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Abbotsford Heat are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Webster Bank Arena, Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Norfolk Admirals continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 2 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Springfield Falcons are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs while the Connecticut Whale continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play (interestingly, these two teams decided G10 standings in Springfield’s home arena)

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Syracuse Crunch are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Carver Arena, Peoria, Il – Based on their play through Game 20, the Texas Stars continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve while the Peoria Rivermen are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

G10’s:

Saturday, 3 November 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 10, the Rochester Americans hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 4 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, the Grand Rapids Griffins hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 10, the Milwaukee Admirals hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Binghamton Senators hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Times Union Center, Albany, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Albany Devils hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 10, the Providence Bruins hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Your next update will be posted on Thursday, 6 December following games played through Wednesday, 5 December with Game 20 PQC calls for Grand Rapids and Milwaukee.

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