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AHL Predictive Analysis – 7 December


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 7 December Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Friday, 7 December. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 7 December Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 7 December:

AHL_7Dec

Note our projected separation from 8th seed to 12th in the East is about two wins, and from 8th to 9th seed in the West is approximately 1.5 wins.

Here are notes to explain the chart:
1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.
2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.
3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.
4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses
5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games
6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points
7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall
8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

All Eastern Conference teams reach their G20 call with Albany’s 9 December game and all Western Conference teams reach the G20 mark tonight with Hamilton. Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 80 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs and for teams out West to earn 86.

After games on 7 December, Eastern Conference PQC status is below:

EastG20

Springfield and Syracuse will not be the only Eastern team that is Chasing Calder (CC) by G20. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton will remain the East’s only Sharpening Skates (SS). The same 11 teams will not surpass In The Curve (ITC) with one of them still potentially a Tee Time (T2) call. Providence joined Bridgeport, Connecticut, Norfolk, Adirondack, Manchester, Portland, Worcester, St. John’s and Hershey as the Eastern ITC teams Friday night.

And on 7 December, Western Conference PQC status is below:

WestG20

Abbotsford is the West’s only CC team, and Charlotte remains at the SS level at the G20 mark. Rochester joined Grand Rapids, Milwaukee, Texas, Chicago, Toronto, Rockford, Oklahoma City, Houston and Lake Erie at an ITC call Friday night. Hamilton is our last call in the West for G20 and they teeter between ITC and T2. After the 8 December final G20 calls, we roll our maximum PQC predictions for G30.

Summary

There it is – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 7 December. From on our analysis, four teams will already be IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and two–to–four more are OUT. All other teams have played about average to/through Game 20 with one in each Conference just shy of a CC call.

Below is a final rolling list of all G20 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics – we will drop the last, G10 PQC call for teams as they hit their G20).

G20’s:

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the St. John’s IceCaps continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Rockford IceHogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Hershey Bears continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 10, both the Oklahoma City Barons and Houston Aeros continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the Lake Erie Monsters continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the San Antonio Rampage are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Adirondack Phantoms continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Webster Bank Arena, Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Worcester Sharks continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Charlotte Checkers continue to hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or above average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Cumberland County Civic Center, Portland, ME – Based on their play through Game 20, the Portland Pirates continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Manchester Monarchs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Ricoh Coliseum, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through Game 20, the Toronto Marlies continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or above average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Chicago Wolves continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Abbotsford Heat are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Webster Bank Arena, Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Norfolk Admirals continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 2 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Springfield Falcons are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs while the Connecticut Whale continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play (interestingly, these two teams decided G10 standings in Springfield’s home arena)

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Syracuse Crunch are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Carver Arena, Peoria, Il – Based on their play through Game 20, the Texas Stars continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve while the Peoria Rivermen are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 6 December 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 20, the Grand Rapids Griffins continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 6 December 2012, BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 20, the Milwaukee Admirals continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 7 December 2012, Dunkin’ Donuts Center, Providence, RI – Based on their play through Game 20, the Providence Bruins continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 7 December 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, New York – Based on their play through Game 20, the Rochester Americans continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

G10’s:

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 10, the Binghamton Senators hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 9 November 2012, Bell Centre, Montreal, QC – Based on their play through Game 10, the Hamilton Bulldogs are In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 10 November 2012, Times Union Center, Albany, NY – Based on their play through Game 10, the Albany Devils hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 8 December to include Game 20 PQC calls for Binghamton and Hamilton.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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