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AHL Predictive Analysis – 18 December


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 18 December Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Tuesday, 18 December. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

Note here that the chart standings are from early in the season, which gains more and more accuracy as each game plays out. We have found with the NHL PQC calls that those projected standings do not gain true clarity until every team has at least one OT/SO loss and/or beginning right around the Game 20 mark. So expect more accuracy by mid-December.

The 18 December Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 18 December:

AHL_19Dec

Note our projected separation from 8th to 11th seed in the Eastern Conference is about one OT/SO loss while the West’s spread for 8th through 12th projected seeds is tie-breaker to about three wins.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

St. John’s will be the Eastern Conference’s first team to reach the G30 mark on 21 December. San Antonio does likewise for the West on that same date. The G30’s are final on 5 January with Albany’s 30th game. Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 79 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs. Teams out West need to earn 86.

After games on 18 December, the Eastern Conference G30 PQC status is below:

EastG30

At G30, there are currently four teams who can join Binghamton, Springfield and Syracuse in the Chasing Calder (CC) category. One more can be as high as Sharpening Skates (SS). Seven more will not beat an In The Curve (ITC) call.

And on 18 December, Western Conference G30 PQC status is below:

WestG30

Abbotsford remains the West’s only current CC team, with seven others still holding a shot at CC by G30. At G20, Charlotte was just off that mark at the SS level – we already know one team cannot beat an SS call by G30. Four teams cannot beat an ITC call while San Antonio and Peoria remain the Western Conference’s two Tee Time (T2) calls for G30.

Summary

There it is – the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 18 December. From on our analysis, four teams are already IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and two more are OUT. A maximum of 15 teams could be a CC call by G30. Equally, a total of 18 teams could be at T2 by G30. So the truth there lies somewhere to be determined and in the middle of the two extremes, especially when we know 12 teams will not be eliminated by G30.

Below is a final rolling list of all G20 PQC calls (new entries are in Bold Italics – we will drop the last, G20 PQC call for teams as they hit their G30).

G20’s:

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the St. John’s IceCaps continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Rockford IceHogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Hershey Bears continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 20, both the Oklahoma City Barons and Houston Aeros continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 30 November 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the Lake Erie Monsters continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the San Antonio Rampage are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Glens Falls Civic Center, Glens Falls, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Adirondack Phantoms continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Webster Bank Arena, Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Worcester Sharks continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Charlotte Checkers hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or above average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Cumberland County Civic Center, Portland, ME – Based on their play through Game 20, the Portland Pirates continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Manchester Monarchs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Ricoh Coliseum, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through Game 20, the Toronto Marlies continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or above average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Allstate Arena, Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 20, the Chicago Wolves continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Abbotsford Heat are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Webster Bank Arena, Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, both the Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Norfolk Admirals continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 2 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Springfield Falcons are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs while the Connecticut Whale continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play (interestingly, these two teams decided G10 standings in Springfield’s home arena)

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Syracuse Crunch are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Carver Arena, Peoria, Il – Based on their play through Game 20, the Texas Stars continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve while the Peoria Rivermen are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 6 December 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 20, the Grand Rapids Griffins continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 6 December 2012, BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 20, the Milwaukee Admirals continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 7 December 2012, Dunkin’ Donuts Center, Providence, RI – Based on their play through Game 20, the Providence Bruins continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 7 December 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, New York – Based on their play through Game 20, the Rochester Americans continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 8 December 2012, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 20, the Hamilton Bulldogs are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of OUT of the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 8 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Binghamton Senators are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 9 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Albany Devils continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Your next update will be posted after games played on Wednesday, 19 December which includes early Game 30 PQC projections for both Conferences.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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