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AHL Predictive Analysis – 5 January


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 5 January Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Saturday, 5 January. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 5 January Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 5 January:

AHL_5Jan

Note our projected separation from 8th to 10th seed in the Eastern Conferences is one OT/SO loss and from 8th to 10th seed in the Western Conferences is 1.5 wins.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

All G30’s in the Western Conference are complete, so now we turn our attentions to G40 calls. The final G40 call is on Friday, 1 February when Chicago plays its 40th game. Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 79 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs. In the West, it currently looks like 85 points are required.

After games on 5 January, the Eastern Conference G40 PQC status is our goal. Here is where it stands right now:

EastG40

Projected at G40, Binghamton, Springfield and Syracuse remain our Chasing Calder (CC) calls. Another seven teams can reach a CC call but need games to play out to G40 because four of them could just as easily rate a Tee Time (T2) call. Two more teams are not better than a Sharpening Skates (SS) call. One cannot beat In The Curve (ITC). And Adirondack and Connecticut remain the current T2 squads in the East. (Note that in addition to our CC squads, we also know Bridgeport, Portland and Worcester will not be eliminated by their 40th game.)

And as of 5 January, Western Conference G40 PQC status is below:

WestG40

Toronto, Abbotsford and Charlotte can be joined by as many as seven more teams with a CC call for G40. Of the new, potential CC teams, three of them could just as easily rate a Tee Time (T2) call. Two teams cannot beat ITC. And while Hamilton, San Antonio and Peoria remain the Conference’s T2 calls at G40, four more teams can just as readily fall to a T2 call. (Note here also that Lake Erie joined the other seven teams who won’t be eliminated by G40 before last night’s contests.)

Summary

This is the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 5 January. From our analysis, six teams are already IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and five more are OUT. The remaining teams rank between at an ITC or SS call by G30.

Below is a final rolling list of new G30 PQC calls and old G20’s. New G40 entries, or G20/30 CC and T2 calls when they hit the G30 mark, will stand in bold font after today. Everyone’s original CC or T2 call remain below for reference.

G30’s:

Friday, 21 December 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 30, the Charlotte Checkers are the fifth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Friday, 21 December 2012, Copps Coliseum, Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 30, the St. John’s IceCaps continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 22 December 2012, BMO Harris Bank Center – Rockford, IL – Based on their play through Game 30, the Rockford IceHogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 22 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 30, the Lake Erie Monsters continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 26 December 2012, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 30, the Hershey Bears continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Wednesday, 26 December 2012, Verizon Wireless Arena – Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 30, the Manchester Monarchs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 27 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum – Hartford, CT– Based on their play through Game 30, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, while the Connecticut Whale are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 27 December 2012, Cedar Park Center – Cedar Park, TX – Based on their play through Game 30, the Texas Stars continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 28 December 2012, Van Andel Arena – Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 30, the Toronto Marlies are the sixth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Friday, 28 December 2012, BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 30, the Milwaukee Admirals continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 28 December 2012, Cox Convention Center – Oklahoma City, OK – Based on their play through Game 30, the Oklahoma City Barons continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 28 December 2012, Toyota Center, Houston, TX – Based on their play through Game 30, the Houston Aeros continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Androscoggin Bank Colisee – Lewiston, MEBased on their play through Game 30, the Portland Pirates continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play and the Adirondack Phantoms are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 29 December 2012, DCU Center – Worcester, MA– Based on their play through Game 30, the Worcester Sharks continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, New York – Based on their play through Game 30, the Rochester Americans continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza, Wilkes-Barre, PA – Based on their play through Game 30, the Wilkes-Bury/Scranton Penguins continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH– Based on their play through Game 30, the Hamilton Bulldogs are the fifth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 30 December 2012, MassMutual Center – Springfield, MA – Based on their play through Game 30, the Norfolk Admirals continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Monday, 31 December 2012, Van Andel Arena, Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 30, the Grand Rapids Griffins hold a PQC rating of Sharpening Skates, or just short of IN the 2013 Calder Cup playoffs

Wednesday, 2 January 2013, Cumberland County Civic Center – Portland, ME – Based on their play through Game 30, the Providence Bruins continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Thursday, 3 January 2013, BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, WI – Based on their play through Game 30, the Chicago Wolves continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 5 January 2012, Copps Coliseum – Hamilton, ON – Based on their play through Game 30, the Albany Devils continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

G20’s:

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the San Antonio Rampage are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Abbotsford Heat are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Springfield Falcons are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Syracuse Crunch are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Carver Arena, Peoria, Il – Based on their play through Game 20, the Peoria Rivermen are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 8 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Binghamton Senators are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Your next update will be posted after games played on Sunday, 6 January.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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