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AHL Predictive Analysis – 11 January


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 11 January Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Friday, 11 January. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 11 January Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 11 January:

AHL_11Jan

Note our projected separation from 8th to 9th seed in the Eastern Conferences is less than one win and from 8th to 9th seed in the Western Conferences is a tie breaker call.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

The final G40 call is on Friday, 1 February when Chicago plays its 40th game. Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 81 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs. In the West, it currently looks like 85 points are required.

After games on 11 January, the Eastern Conference G40 PQC status is our goal. Here is where it stands right now:

EastG40

Projected at G40, Binghamton, Springfield and Syracuse remain our Chasing Calder (CC) calls. Another four (down one) teams can reach a CC call. Six more teams (up one) cannot beat In The Curve (ITC). And Adirondack and Connecticut remain the current T2 squads in the East.

And as of 11 January, Western Conference G40 PQC status is below:

WestG40

Toronto, Abbotsford and Charlotte can be joined by as many as three more teams (down three) with a CC call for G40. One team can max out at a Sharpening Skates (SS) call. Four teams (up two) cannot beat ITC. And Hamilton, San Antonio and Peoria remain the Conference’s T2 calls at G40.

Summary

This is the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 11 January. From our analysis, six teams are already IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and five more are OUT. The remaining teams rank between at an ITC or SS call by G30.

Below is a final rolling list of new G30 PQC calls and old G20’s. New G40 entries, or G20/30 CC and T2 calls when they hit the G30 mark, will stand in bold font after today. Everyone’s original CC or T2 call remain below for reference.

G30’s:

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH– Based on their play through Game 30, the Hamilton Bulldogs are the fifth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Androscoggin Bank Colisee – Lewiston, ME – Based on their play through Game 30, the Adirondack Phantoms are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Friday, 28 December 2012, Van Andel Arena – Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 30, the Toronto Marlies are the sixth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 27 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum – Hartford, CT– Based on their play through Game 30, the Connecticut Whale are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Friday, 21 December 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 30, the Charlotte Checkers are the fifth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

G20’s:

Saturday, 8 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Binghamton Senators are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Carver Arena, Peoria, Il – Based on their play through Game 20, the Peoria Rivermen are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Syracuse Crunch are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Springfield Falcons are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Abbotsford Heat are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the San Antonio Rampage are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 12 January.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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