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AHL Predictive Analysis – 20 January


(If you regularly read this AHL analysis, start under the title “The 20 January Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your AHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for AHL games ending Sunday, 20 January. What are we showing here? Where the AHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the AHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 76 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC call changes, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 20 January Chart

Here are the two Conferences after games completed on 20 January:

AHL_20Jan

Note our projected Eastern Conference separation from 8th to 11th seed is tie-breakers and 8th to 10th seed in the Western Conferences is two wins.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. AHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘AHL Stnd’ indicates current team AHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard AHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CC’ = Chasing Calder, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

The final G40 call is on Friday, 1 February when Chicago plays its 40th game. Current projections in the Eastern Conference are for teams needing 80 standings points to make the Calder Cup playoffs. In the West, it currently looks like 86 points are required.

After games on 20 January, the Eastern Conference G40 PQC status is our goal. Here is where it stands right now:

EastG40

Projected at G40 in the East, Portland, Binghamton, Springfield and Syracuse are our Chasing Calder (CC) calls. Seven more teams cannot beat In The Curve (ITC). St. John’s, Adirondack and Connecticut are the Eastern Tee Time (T2) squads and will be joined by one more T2 squad soon.

And as of 20 January, Western Conference G40 PQC status is below:

WestG40

Texas, Toronto, Abbotsford and Charlotte all hold CC calls for G40, and will be joined by one more team soon. One team cannot be better than a Sharpening Skates (SS) call. Six other teams still cannot beat ITC. Hamilton, San Antonio and Peoria will remain the Conference’s T2 calls at G40.

Summary

This is the updated AHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 20 January. From our analysis, nine teams are already IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs and seven more are OUT. The remaining teams rank between a DoC or SS call by G40.

Below is a final rolling list of new G40 PQC calls on down to old G20’s. New G40 entries, or G20/30 CC and T2 calls when they hit the G30 mark, will stand in bold font after today. Everyone’s original CC or T2 call remains below for reference.

G40’s:

Sunday, 20 January 2013, Webster Bank Arena – Bridgeport, CT – Based on their play through Game 40, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Sunday, 20 January 2013, Carver Arena – Peoria, IL – Based on their play through Game 40, the Houston Aeros continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 19 January 2013, Verizon Wireless Arena – Manchester, NH – Based on their play through Game 40, the Manchester Monarchs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 19 January 2013, Cumberland County Civic Center – Portland, ME – Based on their play through Game 40, the Portland Pirates are the eighth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 19 January 2013, DCU Center – Worcester, MA – Based on their play through Game 40, the Worcester Sharks continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 19 January 2013, Norfolk Scope – Norfolk, VA – Based on their play through Game 30, the St. John’s Icecaps are the sixth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 19 January 2013, Cox Convention Center – Oklahoma City, OK – Based on their play through Game 40, the Oklahoma City Barons continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Saturday, 19 January 2013, BMO Harris Bank Center – Rockford, IL – Based on their play through Game 40, the Rockford Ice Hogs continue to hold a PQC rating of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 18 January 2013, Giant Center, Hershey, PA – Based on their play through Game 40, both the Hershey Bears and Lake Erie Monsters continue to hold PQC ratings of In The Curve, or average for League play

Friday, 18 January 2013, Allstate Arena – Rosemont, IL – Based on their play through Game 40, the Texas Stars are the seventh AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

G30’s:

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH– Based on their play through Game 30, the Hamilton Bulldogs are the fifth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 29 December 2012, Androscoggin Bank Colisee – Lewiston, ME – Based on their play through Game 30, the Adirondack Phantoms are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Friday, 28 December 2012, Van Andel Arena – Grand Rapids, MI – Based on their play through Game 30, the Toronto Marlies are the sixth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 27 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum – Hartford, CT– Based on their play through Game 30, the Connecticut Whale are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Friday, 21 December 2012, Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC – Based on their play through Game 30, the Charlotte Checkers are the fifth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

G20’s:

Saturday, 8 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Binghamton Senators are the fourth AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Carver Arena, Peoria, Il – Based on their play through Game 20, the Peoria Rivermen are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, Broome Country Veterans Memorial Arena, Binghamton, NY – Based on their play through Game 20, the Syracuse Crunch are the third AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 2 December 2012, XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Hartford, CT – Based on their play through Game 20, the Springfield Falcons are the second AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Centre, Abbotsford, BC – Based on their play through Game 20, the Abbotsford Heat are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Chasing Calder, or IN the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 1 December 2012, Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH – Based on their play through Game 20, the San Antonio Rampage are the first AHL team to receive a PQC call of Tee Time, or ELIMINATED FROM the 2013 Calder Cup Playoffs

Your next update will be posted after games played on Friday, 25 January.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an AHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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