Uncategorized

NHL Predictive Analysis – 23 January


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The 23 January Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 23 January. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here several times a week as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s march to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 21, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 23 January Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 23 January:

NHL_23Jan

Projections for separation between 8th and lower seeds will not be generated with a large measure of accuracy until approximately Game 10 and each team has generated at least one OT/SO loss.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

The first Game 10 (G10) calls will be Dallas and Phoenix on Monday, 4 February. Final G10 call is on Monday, 11 February when Calgary plays its 10th game against Minnesota. Here are a couple of other notes:

Reference Win, Loss or OTL streaks… If the 1994-5 season is a model to compare this shortened season to, only two teams began that season with an 0-3 record and none worse than that. Philadelphia went on to the playoffs while Florida did not. Philadelphia just repeated their 0 – 3 start Tuesday night. The New York Rangers, Calgary and Phoenix avoided an 0-3 start last night. Keep an eye on Carolina and Los Angeles tonight to see how they fare.

We will refrain from G10 predictions until at least G5. Once we have hit the G5 mark for all teams, we will run a PQC projection graphic for each conference. However, we already know one third of teams in the East and a bit more than that in the West already cannot be CC teams by Game 10.

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies in the East are:

East_Proj_Stats

Those stats in the West are:

West_Proj_Stats

For the projected statistics, as with projected standings, we need between five and 10 games for a more accurate picture here. But the projected (“Projec”) numbers are beginning to trend downward toward a more realistic, final projection.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 23 January. Analysis of final team outcomes begin once they reach the G5 mark.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 24 January.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Advertisements

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 27 other followers

%d bloggers like this: