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NHL Predictive Analysis – 29 January


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The 29 January Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Tuesday, 29 January. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 21, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 29 January Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 29 January:

NHL_29Jan

Projections will continue to gain more accuracy as teams cross the Game 10 (G10) mark and experience their first OT/SOL. However, you can begin to see that we will have some close competition in the 6th through 10th seeds for the final two positions.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

The first G10 calls will be Dallas and Phoenix on Monday, 4 February. The final G10 call is on Monday, 11 February when Calgary plays its 10th game against Minnesota. Here are a couple of other notes:

And we already know 21 – of – 30 NHL clubs cannot be CC teams by G10.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

We equalled or surpassed the G5 mark for the Eastern Conference so have the initial G10 PQC calls firming up. From the chart below, you can see several things. Firstly, only five of the Eastern teams still have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call. The other 10 cannot be better than In The Curve (ITC). And seven teams as listed won’t be eliminated come the G10 mark.

East_G10_PQC

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies in the East are:

East_Proj_Stats

Western Conference PQC and Stats

We equal or surpass the G5 mark for the Western Conference on Thursday, so initial G10 PQC calls are still firming up. At this point, however, we already know six teams won’t be eliminated come G10.

The projected stats in the West are:

West_Proj_Stats

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 29 January. We already know a total of 13 teams won’t be eliminated from the Playoffs by Game 10. We also know, however, that 21 teams / 70% of the NHL cannot reach a call of Chasing Stanley at that same mark.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Wednesday, 30 January.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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