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NHL Predictive Analysis – 4 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Monday, 4 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 4 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 4 February:

NHL_4Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 24 wins / 48 points in the Eastern Conference, and 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference, to qualify for the playoffs. Of note, tie-breakers are all that separate the Eastern Conference’s 8th and 9th seeds and, relatively, the West’s 6th through 8th and 9th and 10th seeds.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Dallas and Phoenix sport the first G10 calls from their games played on Monday, 4 February below. The final G10 call is on Monday, 11 February when Calgary plays its 10th game against Minnesota. Here are a couple of other notes:

And we already know 26 – of – 30 / 86.7% of NHL clubs cannot be CC teams by G10.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

From the chart below, you can see several things. Firstly, only one Eastern team still has a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call. Two more cannot surpass a call of Sharpening Skates (SS), or just shy of making the Playoffs this season. Eleven teams cannot be better than In The Curve (ITC). And one team flirts with elimination not able to surpass a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call. And the 12 teams listed won’t be eliminated come the G10 mark. Buffalo, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Washington all receive their G10 calls tonight with the potential for some Tee Time (T2) calls occurring.

East_G10_PQC

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies in the East are:

East_Proj_Stats

While no one is currently projected to score 50 – in – 50, it is still theoretically possible for Thomas Vanek and Steven Stamkos to both surpass 100 points on the shortened season.

Western Conference PQC and Stats

In the West, we are still standing pat with the same three CC’s, one SS, and 11 ITC calls we sported yesterday. And the same 13 teams as listed that won’t be eliminated by the G10 mark. Dallas and Phoenix reached their G10 mark with their PQC calls listed below in the “G10” section. Chicago, Columbus and San Jose all reach the G10 mark tonight with at least one CS call coming.

West_G10_PQC

Finally, projected stats in the West are:

West_Proj_Stats

Nobody is currently projected to score neither 50 goals in 50 games nor more than 100 points in the West during this shortened season.

G10’s:

Monday, 4 February 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – Based on their play through G10, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve or average for NHL play

Monday, 4 February 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G10, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve or average for NHL play

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 4 February. We already know two teams in the West are ITC calls, tonight we might have both CS and T2 calls, and a total of 25 teams won’t be eliminated from the Playoffs by Game 10. We also know, however, that 26 teams / 86.7% of the NHL cannot reach a call of Chasing Stanley at that same mark.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Tuesday, 5 February with nine G10 calls coming.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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