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NHL Predictive Analysis – 5 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Tuesday, 5 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 5 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 5 February:

NHL_5Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 24 wins / 48 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. Of note, tie-breakers are all that separate the Eastern Conference’s 7th and 11th seeds and the West’s 8th through 11th seeds.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

What a difference one night makes! We have 11 PQC calls below, to include one Chasing Stanley (CS), two Dusting Off Clubs (DoC’s) and one Tee Time (T2). The final G10 call is on Monday, 11 February when Calgary plays its 10th game against Minnesota. Here are a couple of other notes:

And we already know 27 – of – 30 / 90% of NHL clubs cannot be CC teams by G10.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

From the chart below, you can see several things. Firstly, only one Eastern team still has a shot at a CS call. One (down from two) more cannot surpass a call of Sharpening Skates (SS), or just shy of making the Playoffs this season. Eleven teams cannot be better than In The Curve (ITC). And Buffalo is at a DoC call. Washington becomes the first team to receive a T2 call and is effectively eliminated from a Playoff seed this season. And Florida and Philadelphia join the ranks of the other 14 (up from 12) teams listed who won’t be eliminated come the G10 mark.

East_G10_PQC

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies in the East are:

East_Proj_Stats

As you can see, we still barely cling to the possibility of any Eastern players surpassing 100 points on the shortened season.

Western Conference PQC and Stats

In the West, Chicago has become the first NHL team designated as CS while one more team (down from a total of three) still holds a chance of earning a CS call. Twelve (up from 11) teams cannot beat an ITC call. Columbus joins Buffalo in the DoC column. And Los Angeles joins a total of 14 (up from 13) teams listed that won’t be eliminated by the G10 mark. Colorado and Edmonton reach the G10 mark tonight with at least one CS call coming.

West_G10_PQC

Finally, projected stats in the West are:

West_Proj_Stats

Nobody is currently projected to score more than 100 points in the West during this shortened season.

G10’s:

Monday, 4 February 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – Based on their play through G10, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Monday, 4 February 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G10, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G10, the Columbus Blue Jackets are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G10, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G10, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or average for NHL play.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 5 February. We already know we have one CS team in the West, one DoC team in each Conference, and one T2 team in the East. Seven more teams are ITC calls, and we have two more PAC calls coming tonight. A total of 28 teams won’t be eliminated from the Playoffs by Game 10. We also know, however, that 27 teams / 90% of the NHL cannot reach a call of Chasing Stanley at that same mark.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Wednesday, 6 February with two more G10 calls coming.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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