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NHL Predictive Analysis – 8 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Friday, 8 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last games played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 8 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 8 February:

NHL_8Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. Of note, one OT/SOL is all that separates the projected 7th and 8th places in the East, and tie-breakers are all that separate the West’s 7th and 8th seeds.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We have 26 PQC calls below, to include one Chasing Stanley (CS), two Dusting Off Clubs (DoC’s) and one Tee Time (T2). The final G10 call is on Monday, 11 February when Calgary plays its 10th game against Minnesota. Here are a couple of other notes:

And we already know 28 – of – 30 / 93.3% of NHL clubs cannot be CC teams by G10.

We will turn our attention toward the Game 20 (G20) timeframe for the Eastern Conference beginning with games on Sunday, 10 February, and follow with the same emphasis in the Western Conference after Calgary’s game on Monday, 11 February.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

There is no change in the Eastern Conference from games played on Thursday, 7 February. (From the chart below, you can see several things. Firstly, only one Eastern team still has a shot at a CS call. Twelve teams are not better than In The Curve (ITC). And Buffalo remains the East’s DoC call. Washington will be the NHL’s only T2 call at G10 and is effectively eliminated from a Playoff seed this season. Also, 14 total teams are not eliminated at the G10 mark. And finally, look for the last two PQC calls from Boston and Carolina after games played today.) And for reference, the average PQC in the East is lower than the PQC measured against, so we continue to estimate the final Wins/points required downward as we continue on toward G20.

East_G10_PQC

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies in the East are not changed from yesterday’s Predictive Analysis:

East_Proj_Stats

As you can see, we still barely cling to the possibility of any Eastern players surpassing 100 points on the shortened season.

Western Conference PQC and Stats

In the West, Chicago is still the only Western and NHL team designated as CS. Thirteen (up from twelve) teams cannot beat an ITC call. Columbus is the Western DoC team. No teams in the Western Conference will be a T2 call at G10. The final Western G10 PQC calls are Los Angeles on Sunday night, and Calgary on Monday night. And as in the East, the average PQC in the West is lower than the PQC measured against, just to a lesser extent. We continue to estimate the final Wins/points required downward as we continue on toward G20 here as well.

West_G10_PQC

Finally, projected stats in the West have a few, minor adjustments from the 7 February Predictive Analysis numbers:

West_Proj_Stats

Nobody is currently projected to score more than 100 points in the West during this shortened season.

G10’s:

Friday, 8 February 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G10, the Anaheim Ducks are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – Based on their play through G10, both the Vancouver Canucks and Minnesota Wild are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G10, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G10, both the Detroit Red Wings and St. Louis Blues are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MN – Based on their play through G10, the Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G10, the Florida Panthers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G10, both the New York Rangers and New York Islanders are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G10, both the New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Montreal Canadiens are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Wednesday, 6 February 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G10, the Edmonton Oilers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Wednesday, 6 February 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – Based on their play through G10, the Colorado Avalanche are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or average for NHL play.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G10, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G10, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G10, the Columbus Blue Jackets are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Monday, 4 February 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G10, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Monday, 4 February 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – Based on their play through G10, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 8 February. We already know we have one CS team in the West, one DoC team in each Conference, and one T2 team in the East. One more team’s ITC call is made, and we have 2 more PQC calls coming Saturday tonight. A total of 29 (up from 28) teams won’t be eliminated from the Playoffs by Game 10. Plus, we also know that 28 teams / 93.3% of the NHL cannot reach a call of Chasing Stanley at that same mark.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 9 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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