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NHL Predictive Analysis – 10 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Sunday, 10 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 10 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 10 February:

NHL_10Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Eastern Conference and 26 wins / 52 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Currently, 2.5 wins separates projected 8th through 10th places in the East, tie-breakers separate 8th and 9th place and two wins are the difference between the West’s 8th through 11th seeds.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We have 29 PQC calls below, to include two (up from one) Chasing Stanley’s (CS’s), two Dusting Off Clubs (DoC’s) and one Tee Time (T2). The final G10 call is on Monday, 11 February when Calgary plays its 10th game against Minnesota.

We know 28 – of – 30 / 93.3% of NHL clubs are not CC teams at G10.

We turn our attention to the Game 20 (G20) timeframe for the Eastern Conference beginning below, and follow with the same emphasis in the Western Conference after Calgary’s game on Monday night, 11 February.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

From the chart below, you can see several things. For starters, Boston joins Chicago as a CS team, the only one in the Eastern Conference at G10. Fourteen of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call as we reset things for the G11 – G20 stretch. (It should be noted four teams are within 1.5 losses of dropping out of the chance for a CS call by G20.) And based on the G20 criteria, four teams join Boston in the not-going-to-be-eliminated-by-Game-20 club. One team – Washington – remains a T2 call with us until proven otherwise come Playoff time.

East_G20_PQC

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies are below to assist you with your Fantasy Hockey analysis:

East_Proj_Stats

Tonight, we finally dip below the possibility of a 100 point season for any player in the Eastern Conference for the first time since the season began.

Western Conference PQC and Stats

Chicago is the lone Western team designated as CS. Thirteen teams will not beat an ITC call. Columbus is the Western DoC team. And no Western Conference teams will be a T2 call at G10. The final Western G10 PQC call is Calgary on Monday night. As of Monday night, we direct our analysis toward G20 as in the East tonight.

West_G10_PQC

Finally, here are the projected stats in the West:

West_Proj_Stats

Nobody is currently projected to score more than 100 points in the West during this shortened season.

G10’s:

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 10 February 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G10, the Los Angeles Kings are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Saturday, 9 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G10, the Carolina Hurricanes are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Friday, 8 February 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G10, the Anaheim Ducks are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – Based on their play through G10, both the Vancouver Canucks and Minnesota Wild are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G10, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G10, both the Detroit Red Wings and St. Louis Blues are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MN – Based on their play through G10, the Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G10, the Florida Panthers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G10, both the New York Rangers and New York Islanders are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G10, both the New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Thursday, 7 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Montreal Canadiens are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Wednesday, 6 February 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G10, the Edmonton Oilers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Wednesday, 6 February 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – Based on their play through G10, the Colorado Avalanche are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or average for NHL play.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G10, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G10, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G10, the Columbus Blue Jackets are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Monday, 4 February 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G10, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Monday, 4 February 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – Based on their play through G10, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or average for NHL play

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 10 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference, one DoC team in each Conference, and one T2 team in the East. The final G10 PQC call is made tonight as Calgary hits their G10 mark.

A total of 29 teams won’t be eliminated from the Playoffs by Game 10, and we also know 28 teams / 93.3% of the NHL cannot reach a call of Chasing Stanley at that same mark.

The first G20 PQC call will be Philadelphia on 23 February.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Monday, 11 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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