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NHL Predictive Analysis – 12 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Tuesday, 12 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 12 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 12 February:

NHL_12Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 28 wins / 56 points in the Eastern Conference and 26 wins / 52 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Currently, two wins separate projected 8th and 9th places in the East, while tie-breakers separate 8th and 9th place between the West’s 8th and 9th seeds.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know 25 – of – 30 / 83.3% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20.

We also know 10 teams – five in each Conference – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20. And our two Chasing Stanley’s (CS’s) and one Tee Time (T2) from the G10 stretch carry over into the playoffs unless they somehow meet the criteria for a Shot Off The Post (SotP) or incorrect call.

The first G20 PQC call will be Philadelphia on 23 February and the last will be Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. Eleven (down from 14) of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call. Of those 14, five (up from four) are already a lock not to fall to a T2 call by G20. And Washington remains a T2 call unless proven otherwise once Playoff time rolls around.

East_G20_PQC

Western Conference PQC and Stats

Chicago remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, 13 more teams still have a shot of earning a CS call. Of those 14, five (up from four) are already a lock not to fall to a T2 call by G20. One more team cannot beat an ITC call.

West_G20_PQC

G10’s:

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or average for NHL play.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or average for NHL play, and the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 12 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference and one T2 team in the East. All teams reached their G10 PQC call last night as Calgary hit their G10 mark.

A total of 28 teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. Only one cannot top an ITC call and one more is eliminated from the Playoffs.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Wednesday, 13 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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