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NHL Predictive Analysis – 17 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Friday, 17 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 17 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 17 February:

NHL_17Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26 wins / 52 points in both Conferences in order to qualify for the playoffs. Currently, as much as one OT/SOL separated the Eastern 8th and 9th seeds, while tie-breakers separate the Western 7th through 11th seeds.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Due to a substantial adjustment based on outcomes over the last two days, we know 13 – of – 30 / 43.3% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20, including the two (Boston and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 13 teams – six Eastern and seven Western – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

And overall, the first G20 PQC call will be Philadelphia on 23 February and the last will be Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. Six more (for a total of seven and down from eight) of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call. One team cannot beat a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, while six (up from five) cannot top In the Curve (ITC). And Washington remains a T2 call unless proven otherwise once Playoff time rolls around.

East_G20_PQC

Projected top stats for forwards, defensemen and goalies in the East are shown below to assist you with your Fantasy Hockey analysis:

East_Proj_Stats

As you can see for scoring, the projected average for goals scored remains under 40 now, with maximum projected points under 80. The best Save Percentage for goalies playing more than three games is Craig Anderson’s .948, play that gives the injury-riddled Senators a chance at victory every night.

Western Conference PQC and Stats

Chicago still remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, five (down from seven) more teams (for a total of six) still have a shot of ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. Two (down from three) more teams cannot beat an SS call, while seven (up from four) are not going to be better than ITC.

West_G20_PQC

Finally, here are the projected stats in the West:

West_Proj_Stats

Scoring in the West is a bit behind the Eastern pace. The projected average for goals scored is still under 35, with maximum projected points now under 70. And Pekka Rinne’s best, projected Save Percentage is .936.

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 17 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference and one T2 team in the East.

A total of 13 (down from 16) teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. Three (down from four) others cannot top an SS call. Thirteen (up from nine) more cannot top an ITC call and one other is eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Monday, 18 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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