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NHL Predictive Analysis – 21 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) update for NHL games ending Thursday, 21 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 21 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 21 February:

NHL_21Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27 wins / 54 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. Also, 1.5 wins separate the 8th and 9th seeds in both Conferences.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 7 – of – 30 / 23.3% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20, including the two (Boston and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 16 (up from 15) teams – eight Eastern and eight Western – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20. Three Eastern and three Western teams are within one win of also making the non-eliminated list for G20 at this time.

And overall, the first G20 PQC call will be Philadelphia on 23 February and the last will be Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC and Stats

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. Three (down from four) more of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call for a total of four. One (down from two) teams cannot beat a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, while eight (up from seven) cannot top In the Curve (ITC). While Washington is the Conference’s current Tee Time (T2) call, one more team will be at T2 at G20.

East_G20_PQC

The top forward, defense and goalie stats are below:

East_Proj_Stats

We are looking here at less than 35 goals and 75 points for the scoring maximum out of the East. And while the maximum number of wins indicate a bit more than 30, we are likely looking at the high 20’s on the goaltender side of the coin.

Western Conference PQC and Stats

Chicago still remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, three more teams still have a shot of ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. Ten teams are not going to be better than ITC. And we now know one team will now be a Tee Time (T2) call for G20, or eliminated from the 2013 Playoffs.

West_G20_PQC

Top Western stats are below:

West_Proj_Stats

Here we are likely at less than 35 goals and 70 points for the scoring maximum out of the East. And while Viktor Fasth’s projected number of wins indicate a bit more at 40 indicates that he has not lost a game he has started – there will be a bit of a projection drop off before the season is out.

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 21 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference and one T2 team in the East.

A total of seven (down from nine) teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. Two others cannot top an SS call. Eighteen (up from 17) more cannot top an ITC call and three (up from two) are eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 21 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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