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NHL Predictive Analysis – 25 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Monday, 25 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 25 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 25 February:

NHL_25Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25.5 wins / 51 points in the Eastern Conference and 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Also, a tie-breaker separates 8th and 9th place in the East while 1.5 wins separate the 7th through 11th seeds in the West.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 5 – of – 30 / 16.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20, including the two (Boston and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 20 teams10 in the both Conferences – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

And our last G20 PQC call is Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. Two more (for a total of three) of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call for a total of four. Nine teams cannot top an In the Curve (ITC) call. One team cannot beat a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call. And while Washington is the Conference’s current Tee Time (T2) call, we already know one more team will be at T2 come G20. (This is no change from yesterday.)

East_G20_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago still remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, one more (for a total of two) teams still have a shot of ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. One more will not outdo a Sharpening Skates (SS) call. Eleven teams are not going to be better than ITC. And we now know one team will now be a Tee Time (T2) call for G20, or eliminated from the 2013 Playoffs. (Again, this is no change from yesterday except that Dallas has now joined the list of teams who will not be eliminated from Playoff contention by G20.)

West_G20_PQC

G20’s :

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 25 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference and one T2 team in the East.

A total of five teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. One more cannot outdo a SS call. Twenty more cannot top an ITC call. One more will not be better than a DoC call, and three others are eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Tuesday, 25 February where we will potentially have more Chasing Stanley calls and definitely have some Tee Time action.

PQC calls for Buffalo, the New York Islanders, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in the East and Columbus and Dallas in the West come after games played on Tuesday, 26 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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