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NHL Predictive Analysis – 31 March

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Sunday, 31 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 31 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 31 March:

NHL_31Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25 wins / 50 points in the Eastern Conferences and 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 7th and 8th place is tie-breakers in the Eastern Conference. In the West, the difference between 8th and 9th place is 1.5 wins. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included five adjustments from our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 11 – of – 30 / 36.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 11 teams – five Eastern and six Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know six Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30.

Eastern Conference PQC

By G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s CS teams with two more who could possibly join them. Five cannot do better than In The Curve (ITC). And Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are all at T2. Of particular note, the difference between Winnipeg in the 3rd seed and Carolina in today’s 8th seed is right about one OT/SO loss.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Chicago and Anaheim remain the West’s current CS teams five more who could theoretically meet that requirement. One cannot be better than Sharpening Skates (SS). Two cannot surpass an ITC call. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the T2 calls by G40.

West_G40_PQC

G30’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 31 March.

A total of five teams are already a CS call by Game 30 with six more total who could possibly join them. Eight others’ maximum cannot beat either a SS or ITC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

The first G40 calls will come from Winnipeg in the East on Saturday, 6 April and Nashville, 7 April. Four Western teams will close out the G40 stretch on Friday, 12 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Monday, 1 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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NHL Predictive Analysis – 30 March

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Saturday, 30 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 30 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 30 March:

NHL_30Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25 wins / 50 points in the Eastern Conferences and 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 7th and 8th place is tie-breakers in the Eastern Conference. In the West, the difference between 8th and 9th place is one win. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included 11 adjustments from our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 11 – of – 30 / 36.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40 (down from 14 / 46.7% since the last report).

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 11 teams – five (up from four) Eastern and six Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know six Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30.

Eastern Conference PQC

By G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s CS teams with two (down from three) more who could possibly join them. Five (up from four) cannot do better than In The Curve (ITC). And Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are all at T2. Of particular note, the difference between Winnipeg in the 3rd seed and Carolina in today’s 8th seed is right about one OT/SO loss.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Chicago and Anaheim remain the West’s current CS teams five (down from seven) more who could theoretically meet that requirement. One cannot be better than Sharpening Skates (SS). Two (up from one) cannot surpass an ITC call. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the T2 calls by G40.

West_G40_PQC

G30’s:

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 30 March.

A total of five teams are already a CS call by Game 30 with nine more total who could possibly join them. Five others’ maximum cannot beat either a SS or ITC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

The first G40 calls will come from Winnipeg in the East on Saturday, 6 April and Nashville, 7 April. Four Western teams will close out the G40 stretch on Friday, 12 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Sunday, 31 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

NHL Predictive Analysis – 29 March

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Friday, 29 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 29 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 29 March:

NHL_29Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25.5 wins / 51 points in the Eastern Conferences and 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 7th and 8th place is 1.5 wins in both Conferences. Eighth to 9th place in the East is one OT/SO loss, and one win in the West. And as an addition from here to the end of the season, we added a column to show the daily difference in projected standings where eight adjustments occurred since our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 14 – of – 30 / 46.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 10 teams – four Eastern and six Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know six Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30.

Eastern Conference PQC

By G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s CS teams with three more who could possibly join them. Four (up from three) cannot do better than In The Curve (ITC). And Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are all at T2.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Chicago and Anaheim remain the West’s current CS teams seven more who could theoretically meet that requirement. One cannot surpass an ITC call. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the T2 calls by G40.

West_G40_PQC

G30’s:

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, ABBased on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 29 March.

A total of five teams are already a CS call by Game 30 with nine more total who could possibly join them. Five others’ maximum cannot beat either a SS or ITC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

The first G40 calls will come from Winnipeg in the East on Saturday, 6 April and Nashville, 7 April. Four Western teams will close out the G40 stretch on Friday, 12 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 30 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

NHL Predictive Analysis – 28 March

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Thursday, 28 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 28 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 28 March:

NHL_28Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Eastern Conferences and 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 7th and 8th place is tie-breakers in the East. The difference between 7th and 8th place in the West is projected is one OT/SO loss. And as an addition from here to the end of the season, we added a column to show the daily difference in projected standings where six adjustments occurred since our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 14 – of – 30 / 46.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 10 (up from nine) teams – four Eastern and six Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know six Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30.

Eastern Conference PQC

By G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s CS teams with three more who could possibly join them. One (down from two) other will not be better than Sharpening Skates (SS) and three (up from two) In The Curve (ITC). And Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are all at T2.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Chicago and Anaheim remain the West’s current CS teams seven more who could theoretically meet that requirement. One cannot surpass an ITC call. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the T2 calls by G40.

West_G40_PQC

G30’s:

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, ABBased on their play through G30, the St. Louis Blues remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, while the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 28 March.

A total of five teams are already a CS call by Game 30 with nine more total who could possibly join them. Five others’ maximum cannot beat either a SS or ITC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

The first G40 calls will come from Winnipeg in the East on Saturday, 6 April and Nashville, 7 April. Four Western teams will close out the G40 stretch on Friday, 12 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 28 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

NHL Predictive Analysis – 27 March

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 27 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 27 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 27 March:

NHL_27Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 52 points in the Eastern Conferences and 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 7th and 8th place in is about 1.5 wins in the East. The difference between 8th and 10 th place in the West is projected as two wins. And as an addition from here to the end of the season, we added a column to show the daily difference in projected standings where 14 adjustments occurred since our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 14 – of – 30 / 46.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another nine teams – four Eastern and five Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know six Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30.

Eastern Conference PQC

By G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s CS teams with three more who could possibly join them. Two others each will not be better than Sharpening Skates (SS) and In The Curve (ITC). And Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are all at T2.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Chicago and Anaheim remain the West’s current CS teams seven more who could theoretically meet that requirement. One cannot surpass an ITC call. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the T2 calls by G40.

West_G40_PQC

G30’s:

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, ABBased on their play through G30, the St. Louis Blues remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, while the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Xcel Energy Center, Saint Paul, MN – Based on their play through G30, both the Minnesota Wild and San Jose Sharks remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 21 March 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G30, both the Dallas Stars and Los Angeles Kings remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 21 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G30, the Vancouver Canucks remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 21 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Carolina Hurricanes remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 21 March 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G30, the New York Rangers remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G30, the Detroit Red Wings remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G30, the Phoenix Coyotes are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 NHL Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – Based on their play through G30, the Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Nassau, NY – Based on their play through G30, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G30, the New Jersey Devils remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 27 March.

A total of five teams are already a CS call by Game 30 with nine more total who could possibly join them. Five others’ maximum cannot beat either a SS or ITC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 28 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

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