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NHL Predictive Analysis – 28 February


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Thursday, 28 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 28 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 28 February:

NHL_28Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25.5 wins / 51 points in the Eastern Conference and about 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Also, tie-breakers separate the 8th through 9th places in both Conferences.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 4 – of – 30 / 13.3% of NHL clubs will be a CC call by G20, including Boston, Montreal and Chicago who have already reached that mark.

We also know 24 (up from 22) teams11 in both Conferences – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

We also have four (up from three) Eastern teams and one Western team that are at Tee Time (T2) eliminated as of G20.

And our last G20 PQC call is Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC And Stats Projections

Boston and Montreal are currently the East’s CS teams as of G20. Nine (down from 10) teams cannot top an In the Curve (ITC) call. And Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are the Conference’s Tee Time (T2) calls.

East_G20_PQC

Current statistical projections look like this in the East:

East_Proj_Stats

The current projections for stats out to the G48 mark indicate less than 35 goals / 75 points scored by Eastern Forwards this shortened season. Defensemen should end at no more than 20 goals / 40 points, but the goals projection is likely high with Erik Karlsson out for the season. And while the simple Goalie projection says more than 35 wins, that is both mathematically impossible and more accurately in the 20’s for a total.

Western Conference PQC And Stats Projections

Chicago still remains undefeated in regulation time and the West’s currently announced CS team as of G10. They will be joined by one more team who will end the G20 stretch as a CS call. Twelve other teams are not going to be better than ITC. And Columbus is the Western Conference’s Tee Time (T2) call at G20.

West_G20_PQC

Current statistical projections look like this in the West:

West_Proj_Stats

Projections for stats at the G48 mark indicate less than 30 goals / 60 points scored by Western Forwards and 15 goals / 40 points for Defensemen. The simple goalie projection calls for 39 wins but, as with the East, games remaining and reality indicate something in the 20’s for victories.

G20’s :

Thursday, 28 February 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – Based on their play through G20, both the New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Staples Centre, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Detroit Red Wings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL Based on their play through G20, the Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH Based on their play through G20, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 28 February.

A total of four teams are CS call at their Game 20. Twenty-one (down from 22) more cannot top an ITC call. And five (up from four) are now eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Friday, 1 March.

PQC calls for Edmonton, Minnesota and St. Louis in the West come after games played on Friday, 1 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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