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NHL Predictive Analysis – 6 March


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 6 March and all through Game 20. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 6 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 6 March:

NHL_6Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. The difference between projected 8th and 9th through 9th places in the East is three wins with 9th through 11th place separated by tie-breakers. Also, tie-breakers separate the 7th through 10th places in the West.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 4 – of – 30 / 13.3% of NHL clubs are Chasing Stanley at G20, including Boston, Montreal and Chicago who have already reached that mark.

We also know another 21 teams – nine in the Eastern Conference and 12 in the Western Conference – will not be eliminated from playoff contention at G20.

We also have four Eastern teams and one Western team that are at Tee Time (T2) eliminated as of G20.

And our final G20 PQC call was Boston on 5 March who earned their CS call in the G10 stretch.

Eastern Conference PQC

Both the G20 and G30 assessments are shown below for both Conferences. Boston and Montreal end the Game 20 stretch as the East’s Chasing Stanley (CS) teams. Nine other teams are an In the Curve (ITC). And Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are the Conference’s Tee Time (T2) calls.

Heading into G30 as an early look, nine teams have a shot at a CS call, two cannot be better than ITC and our same four from the G20 timeframe remain as T2 calls.

East_G20-30_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago (still undefeated) and Anaheim are the West’s two CS teams. Twelve other teams are ITC. And Columbus is the Western Conference’s T2 call for G20.

And or early look at G30 indicates all teams have a shot at a CS call except Columbus who was a T2 in the G20 stretch. The West is going to be difficult to call AGAIN this season as they see-saw back and forth for the 6th through 10th seeds.

West_G20-30_PQC

All calls through G20 are now below:

Monday, 3 March 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Los Angeles Kings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G20, the Calgary Flames are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Rangers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Colorado Avalanche are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G20, the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC – Based on their play through G20, the Vancouver Canucks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 2 March 2013, PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G20, the Carolina Hurricanes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Friday, 1 March 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Minnesota Wild are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Friday, 1 March 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G20, both the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – Based on their play through G20, both the New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Detroit Red Wings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL Based on their play through G20, the Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH Based on their play through G20, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 6 March.

A total of four teams are CS call at their Game 20. Twenty-one more are an ITC call. And five are now eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 14 March for games played through Wednesday, 13 March.

The PQC calls for the Pittsburgh Penguins open the G30 calls on 17 March. Calgary will close out the G30 stretch on 24 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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