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NHL Predictive Analysis – 13 March


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 13 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 13 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 13 March:

NHL_13Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27 wins / 54 points (up from 26.5 wins / 53 points) in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. The difference between projected 8th and 9th place in the East is one (down from three). Also, only one, projected win separates the 6th through 10th seeds in the West.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 4 – of – 30 / 13.3% of NHL clubs are Chasing Stanley at G20, including Anaheim, Boston, Montreal and Chicago who have already reached that mark.

We also know another 12 teamsseven in the Eastern Conference and five in the Western Conference – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

We also have four Eastern teams and one Western team that are at Tee Time (T2) eliminated as of G20.

Eastern Conference PQC

The G30 assessment is shown below for the Conferences. Boston and Montreal continue as the East’s Chasing Stanley (CS) teams. Two more teams can also potentially reach that plateau close by G30. Two teams’ maximum is Sharpening Skates (SS). Four (down from nine) other teams are an In the Curve (ITC). One team’s maximum is Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), and Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are the Conference’s Tee Time (T2) calls.

East_G30_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago and Anaheim are the West’s two CS teams with two others potentially joining them. Ten (down from 12) other teams are ITC. And Columbus is the Western Conference’s T2 call for G20.

West_G30_PQC

G20’s:

Monday, 3 March 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Los Angeles Kings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G20, the Calgary Flames are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Rangers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Colorado Avalanche are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G20, the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC – Based on their play through G20, the Vancouver Canucks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 2 March 2013, PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G20, the Carolina Hurricanes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Friday, 1 March 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Minnesota Wild are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Friday, 1 March 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G20, both the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – Based on their play through G20, both the New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Detroit Red Wings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL Based on their play through G20, the Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH Based on their play through G20, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 13 March.

A total of four teams are CS call at their Game 30 with another four teams potentially joining them. Two can rate a SS call. Fourteen (down from 21) others’ maximum can be an ITC call. One cannot top a DoC call. And five are now eliminated from Playoff contention.

The PQC calls for the Pittsburgh Penguins open the G30 calls on 17 March. Calgary will close out the G30 stretch on 24 March.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Friday, 15 March for games played through Thursday, 14 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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