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NHL Predictive Analysis – 16 March


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Saturday, 16 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 16 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 16 March:

NHL_16Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 7th and 8th place in the East is tie breakers, while the difference from 7th to 10th seeds is 1.5 wins. Also, the estimated difference separating 8th and 9th seeds in the West is one win, and from 8th through 12th is 2.5 wins. And as an addition from here to the end of the season, we added a column to show the daily difference in projected standings where five – to – six adjustments occurred last night depending on which Conference you view.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We now know only 5 – of – 30 / 16.7% NHL clubs will be Chasing Stanley at G30.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 17 (up from 16) teamseight in the East and nine in the West – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G30.

And we know four Eastern teams and one Western team were at a Tee Time (T2) call and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G20. There is definitely one more Western team that will be at T2 come G30, and at least two more teams in the East are on the verge of a similar call.

Eastern Conference PQC and Statistical Estimate

Boston and Montreal continue as the East’s Chasing Stanley (CS) teams. They will be joined by one more team by G30. Six other teams (up from five) are most likely an In the Curve (ITC) call. Two teams’ new maximum remains Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), while Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are the Conference’s current T2 calls.

East_G30_PQC

Scoring remains up in the Eastern Conference thanks to Sidney Crosby’s efforts. For forwards, estimates indicate the high is under both 35 goals and 78 points is for this shortened season. Sixteen goals / 51 points is the high estimate for defensemen. Thirty-four wins would be the estimated maximum, but somewhere in the 20’s is most likely.

East_Proj_Stats

Western Conference PQC and Statistical Estimate

Chicago and Anaheim are the West’s two CS teams. Picking CS teams in the West may very well come down to the majority of calls coming in the G40 – to – G48 timeframe. Eleven other teams are a maximum of ITC. And Columbus is currently the Western Conference’s only T2 call but will be joined by at least one more team by G30.

West_G30_PQC

For scoring by forwards, estimates indicate the high is 30 goals / 58 points for this shortened season. Twelve goals / 41 points is the high estimate for defensemen. Thirty-three wins would be the estimated maximum but as with the East, somewhere in the 20’s is more likely.

West_Proj_Stats

G20’s:

Monday, 3 March 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Los Angeles Kings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G20, the Calgary Flames are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Rangers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Sunday, 3 March 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Colorado Avalanche are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G20, the San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC – Based on their play through G20, the Vancouver Canucks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 2 March 2013, PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G20, the Carolina Hurricanes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Friday, 1 March 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Minnesota Wild are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Friday, 1 March 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G20, both the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – Based on their play through G20, both the New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G20, the Detroit Red Wings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL Based on their play through G20, the Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH Based on their play through G20, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 16 March.

A total of five teams are a CS call at their Game 30. Seventeen others’ maximum can be an ITC call. Two cannot top a DoC call. And six are currently eliminated from Playoff contention.

PQC calls for G30 open tonight with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Calgary closes out the G30 stretch on 24 March.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Monday, 18 March for games played through Sunday, 17 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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