(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)
Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Sunday, 17 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.
How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.
The 17 March Chart
Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 17 March:
From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 6th through 8th place in the East is tie breakers while the difference from 6th to 10th seeds is 1.5 wins. Also, the estimated difference separating the 8th and 9th seeds in the West is one win and from 8th through 12th is 2.5 wins.
Here are notes to explain the chart:
1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.
2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.
3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.
4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses
5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games
6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points
7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall
8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day
9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.
“What Do We Already Know?”
We now know only 5 – of – 30 / 16.7% NHL clubs will be Chasing Stanley at G30.
Including the CS teams above, we also know another 17 teams – eight in the East and nine in the West – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G30.
And we know four Eastern teams and one Western team were at a Tee Time (T2) call and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G20. There is definitely one more Western team that will be at T2 come G30, and at least two more Eastern teams and one more Western team on the verge of a similar call.
Eastern Conference PQC
Pittsburgh joins Boston and Montreal as the East’s Chasing Stanley (CS) teams. Six other teams (up from five) are most likely an In the Curve (ITC) call. Two teams’ new maximum remains Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), while Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders are the Conference’s current T2 calls.
Western Conference PQC
Chicago and Anaheim are the West’s two CS teams. (Picking CS teams in the West may very well come down to the majority of calls coming in the G40 – to – G48 timeframe.) Ten (down from 11) other teams are a maximum of ITC. One more team is at a maximum of Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) by G30. And Columbus is currently the Western Conference’s only T2 call but will be joined by at least one more team by G30.
Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
G20’s (IN or OUT calls):
Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
G10’s (IN or OUT calls):
Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs
This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 17 March.
A total of five teams are a CS call at their Game 30 including Pittsburgh who joined the CS group this night. Sixteen (down from 17) others’ maximum can be an ITC call. Three (up from two) cannot top a DoC call. And six are currently eliminated from Playoff contention.
Philadelphia’s G30 PQC call comes after their game on Monday, 18 March. Calgary closes out the G30 stretch on 24 March.
Your next update will be posted after games played on Monday, 18 March.
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