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NHL Predictive Analysis – 20 March


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 20 March. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs.

The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 20 March Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 20 March:

NHL_Proj_PQC_20Mar

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 6th through 8th place in the East is about one OT/SOL. The difference from 7th to 8th seeds in the West is tie-breakers. For the East, the difference between 8th through 10th place is 2.5 wins while the same holds for the West from 8th through 12th place. And as an addition from here to the end of the season, we added a column to show the daily difference in projected standings where seven adjustments occurred last night.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We now know only 5 – of – 30 / 16.7% NHL clubs will be Chasing Stanley at G30.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 18 teams – nine in each Conference – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G30.

Phoenix in the Western Conference reached G30 as a DoC club.

And we know six (up from five) Eastern teams and three (up from two) Western teams are at a Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30. (There is also a possibility that up to three more Western teams who could be a maximum of ITC wind up reaching the G30 mark at T2.)

Eastern Conference PQC

Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s Chasing Stanley (CS) teams. Six other teams are most likely an In the Curve (ITC) call. One (down from two) team’s new maximum remains Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), while Tampa Bay joins Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo, Florida and the New York Islanders as the Conference’s current T2 calls. (Note here that the New York Islanders are fighting hard to be a Shot Off The Post (SotP), or incorrect, T2 call by the time the shortened season is complete.)

EastG30PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago and Anaheim are the West’s two CS teams. Nine (down from 10) other teams are a maximum of ITC. Phoenix is at a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call for G30. And Columbus and Nashville are currently the Western Conference’s T2 calls through G30 but will be joined by as many as three more teams by G30. (Like the New York Islanders, the play of Columbus pushes them ever closer to a SotP call by the G48.)

G30’s:

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G30, the Detroit Red Wings remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G30, the Phoenix Coyotes are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of eliminated from the 2013 NHL Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – Based on their play through G30, the Winnipeg Jets are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Nassau, NY – Based on their play through G30, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G30, the New Jersey Devils remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 20 March.

A total of five teams are a CS call at their Game 30. Sixteen others’ maximum can be an ITC call. One is a DoC call. And eight (up from six) are currently eliminated from Playoff contention as Philadelphia joined the T2 crowd.

Calgary closes out the G30 stretch on 24 March.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 21 March.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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