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NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 30 April

It’s the 2013 Playoffs! Man, the season just flew by! Oh, yeah – only 48 games. But does that matter?

Not one bit past weeding out the 14 teams who are hitting the links early.

So how does OGA do this? If you read the 29 April version of “Right Wing Conspiracy”, you got Big Tex’s calls for the post-season. I am going about this just a bit differently.

Tonight, I give you my predictions rising like a Phoenix (not like a Coyote this season) up out the statistics from this season. For 30 April, and since they lead off with the opening night games, I work over the Western Conference for you. For 1 May, I will have the Eastern Conference calls.

And remember – statistically speaking – it’s the chase for “3.” The first team to it wins the vast majority of the time.

No. 1 Chicago Versus No. 8 Minnesota

I pick Chicago over Minny in 5 games. Here is the Chicago versus Minnesota Chart:

CHIvMIN

As you can see, the Blackhawks outdistanced the Wild in seven of 10 categories. Of note going into the Playoffs:

  1. Chicago out distances Minnesota in terms of goalie and defensive performance. So why/how does it stretch to six games? Ray Emery is not the backup in Game 1 tonight. The ‘Hawks have 31 flavors of confidence in Corey Crawford, but if there is an issue and he is pulled, Carter Hutton is coming in with one game, one loss, and three GA’s. Crawford has a target on his jersey for some close contact tonight. (Who to watch: Emery/Crawford and Seabrook for Chicago)
  2. And if Crawford is pulled, the team will fall back on more team defense and, correspondingly, less scoring. With Jonathan Toews as the West’s second-highest rated offensive player in terms of total contribution in 15 different statistical categories, the ‘Hawks also get the statistical nod at the Center position even down one Centerman (Dave Bolland). But Minnesota carries both the LW and RW positions, even without Jason Pominville. (Who to watch: Parise and Clutterbuck/Setoguchi for Minnesota)
  3. The overall statistical output of the forwards and defensemen combined also goes to Minnesota.
  4. The combination of all players is a stats advantage to Chicago which, based on the above obviously comes from the inclusion of the Crawford/Emery duo – without the duo, the advantage is a little suspect.
  5. But Chicago pulls this out also based on their ability to score more than Minnesota, the fact they only had one SO loss against the Wild in three meetings this year and for more momentum off of a better, Last 10 games of the season. It’s just going to take some OT to get it done in a closer-than-expected series in the box scores.

No. 2 Anaheim Versus No. 7 Detroit

Anaheim takes down Detroit in 7 games. Here is the Ducks versus Red Wings Chart:

ANAvDET

Anaheim bests Detroit in six of 10 categories. My notes here:

  1. As with Chicago, Anaheim has the best numbers in terms of goalie and defensive performance. (Who to watch: Hiller/Fasth and Souray/Beauchemin for Chicago)
  2. The exact same stats performance lead at Center and not at LW or RW Chicago had is the lack of advantage for the Ducks against Detroit. (Who to watch: Zetterberg and Franzen for Detroit and Getzlaf for Chicago)
  3. But the overall statistical output of the forwards and defensemen combined rests in Anaheim’s favor. Their Goals (Scored) Per Game and Team Total stats numbers are also a plus for Anaheim.
  4. This series goes seven games, however, because of a couple of other factors. Firstly, the Ducks only won one of the three contests against Detroit. Also, the Red Wings come into the playoffs with the best close-out winning streak (four games) in the West. And there is always the Red Wing pride to contend with.
  5. You can always flip a coin for a Game 7. But you can usually count on the best goaltender, and the defensive play in front of him, to carry that last game. And those numbers belong to the Ducks.

No. 3 Vancouver Versus No. 6 San Jose

Vancouver ousts San Jose in 7 games. The Canucks versus Sharks Chart looks like this:

VANvSJS

Vancouver is better than San Jose by a scant five of nine categories. (No one gets the nod for the Last 10 games as both were just about equal.) Notes:

  1. Vancouver gets the nod for the best goalie and defensive performance stats. Here Schneider and Niemi are neck-in-neck. But if you have to go to the Number 2 netminder, it’s hands down for Luongo. (Who to watch: Luongo and Edler for Vancouver)
  2. As with the other top seeds, Vancouver only tops the list for one position. It happens to be at RW in terms of total statistical output while San Jose holds court at Center and LW. (Who to watch: Marleau and Couture for San Jose and Burrows for Vancouver)
  3. San Jose also leads in terms of overall skater average by a SLIM margin.
  4. Goals Per Game and Total Team stats – based in large measure on goaltending figures – rests with Vancouver.
  5. But interestingly, the Canucks did not take a single game from the Sharks all season, pulling one point in six for the standings. It could be the Sharks had the Canucks number in the shortened regular season.
  6. I still like Vancouver, however, in a long series based on either goaltender in net or team defense. And I predict with the loss, next season may see a new coach in San Jose.

No. 4 St. Louis Versus No. 5 Los Angeles

It’s Los Angeles over St. Louis in 6 games. The Canucks versus Sharks Chart looks like this:

STLvLAK

The reigning Stanley Cup champions are ahead of the Blues in six of 10 categories. Here are the notes of the breakdown:

  1. Los Angeles gets the nod for the best goalie and defensive corps. Goalie is a bit tenuous here – this is neither last year’s Quick nor Elliott/Halak, regular-season duo. So the Goalie call is based on team goaltending. And it seems Voynov and Doughty are the top defensemen in this contest, stats-wise. But the Blues have four defenders (Polak, Jackman, Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk) who are relatively interchangeable. So a slim nod here goes to L.A.
  2. Unlike the other top seeds, the Blues statistically carry two of three forward positions with better numbers at LW and Center. One reason is David Backes who is the highest rated forward in the West in terms of the combined, 15 stats categories compared. This helps carry over to the highest averages for those skating forward of the crease. (Who to watch: Sobotka for St. Louis and Brown for Los Angeles)
  3. St. Louis – largely on the back of a seemingly transformed Brian Elliott – hold the second best Last 10 games winning percentage behind Chicago and the second best winning streak (three games) behind Detroit. So momentum is on their side.
  4. But Goals Per Game, total team stats and a 2 – 0 – 1 series advantage help push the Kings over the top here. St. Louis needs one more year to outdo a team like L.A.

So How Does The Rest Play Out?

If the above come true, Round 2 will be:

Los Angeles at Chicago, and

Vancouver at Anaheim

I will run the numbers later this week and tell you how that plays out. Tonight, enjoy the opening 2013 Playoff games and come back tomorrow for my Eastern Conference picks.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Right Wing Conspiracy – 29 APR 2013

Right Wing Conspiracy is a weekly column about hockey, with the odd hockey-related conspiracy theory thrown in for good measure.

The 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs:  Were Realignment Foes Right?

During the haggling between the NHL, NHLPA and the owners over realignment for next season, the biggest controversy by far concerned the unbalanced conferences.  With sixteen teams in the East and only fourteen in the West – and eight teams from each conference making the playoffs – one group would seem to have a decided advantage over the other, in terms of qualifying for the postseason.  Simple math indicates 50% of Eastern Conference clubs will make the playoffs, compared to 57% of Western clubs.  How might that disparity play out?  Let’s move this season to next, and see how it looks:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Division D no.1 Pittsburgh (72 pts.) vs. Wild Card no.2 Ottawa (56)

Division C no.1  Montreal (63) vs. Wild Card no.1  Detroit (56)

Division C no.2 Boston (62) vs. Division C no.3 Toronto (57)

Division D no.2 Washington (57) vs. Division D no.3 NY Rangers (56)

In this scenario, Detroit – late of the Western Conference – has replaced the New York Islanders.  Both the Isles and the Columbus Blue Jackets (Western Conference refugees, as well) finish with 55 points and miss the playoffs.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Division B no.1 Chicago (77 pts.) vs. Wild Card no.2 Winnipeg (51)

Division A no.1 Anaheim (66) vs. Wild Card no. 1 San Jose (57)

Division A no.2 Los Angeles (59) vs. Division A no.3 Vancouver (59)

Division B no.2 St. Louis (60) vs. Division B no.3 Minnesota (55)

This is where the train leaves the rails:  Winnipeg, with 51 points, gets an invitation to The Dance, while the Islanders and Blue Jackets, each with 55 points, stay home.  Extrapolating over an 82-game season, it would take 96 points to secure a playoff seed in the East, compared to just 88 in the West.  That’s a HUGE difference, folks.

Given that the NHL has no intention of moving either Detroit or Columbus back into the Western Conference, how can they correct for this disparity?  Two potential solutions come to mind:  1.  Changing the playoff format, or 2.  Expansion.

CHANGING THE PLAYOFF FORMAT

Where playoff formats are concerned, the most equitable is also the most radical:  Eliminate both division and conference playoffs.  The four division winners are seeded 1-4, the next best twelve teams are 5-16.  As a reward for winning their respective divisions, 1-4 get to select their first round opponents.  The remaining clubs are matched up as closely as possible to normal order, i.e., 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, etc.  After the first round, all teams are re-seeded and play proceeds accordingly.  The +/- of this format is fairly straightforward:

  • Format ensures top sixteen teams make the playoffs every year, eliminating controversy. (+)
  • Significant advantage (reward) goes to division winners by allowing them to pick their first round opponents. (+)
  • High potential for increased travel during playoffs, as cross-continental matchups (i.e., Vancouver vs. Florida) could occur in any/every round. (-)
  • Playoff travel will be spread more evenly between Eastern and Western conferences. (+)
  • Format allows potential for two teams from same division to meet in the Stanley Cup Finals.  (from an American TV ratings perspective, + if it’s Rangers-Penguins, – if it’s Senators-Maple Leafs)

EXPANSION

The NHL’s unbalanced realignment has led to much speculation on the possibility of an expansion to 32 teams.  To this end, Quebec City and Seattle seem to be frontrunners, with a second Toronto team running third.  Kansas City, with its NHL-ready arena, is always part of the conversation, as well.  The biggest question, however, is the status of the Phoenix Coyotes:  Will they stay or will they go?

If the Coyotes move, Seattle would seem a logical destination, as well as one which would allow them to remain in the same division.  Though Kansas City’s name pops up every time a team starts talking relocation, KC will likely always be the guy your girlfriend flirts with to make you jealous, though she has no intention of seriously dating him.  Why not?  Because he’s totally like a big brother to her, that’s why.  Also, his 31st-ranked TV market just doesn’t turn her on.

Television is a significant consideration in both expansion and the potential relocation of the Coyotes.  Though the Thrashers’ move to Winnipeg improved the NHL’s bottom line in the short-term, losing a presence in America’s 8th-ranked TV market could hurt when it comes time to renew the league’s television contract.  Phoenix is ranked 12th, and losing that market without a comparable replacement would be a bitter pill for the NHL to swallow.  For this reason alone, 14th-ranked Seattle is a much more desirable destination than either Quebec City or Toronto.

On the other hand, Houston, the no.10 TV market in America, is a very attractive darkhorse candidate for either relocation or expansion.  The AHL Aeros, who are leaving for Des Moines after the playoffs, averaged 6793 fans per game this season, good for 7th in the league.  According to this spreadsheet, Houston would seem to have the financial resources to support an NHL franchise.  A second team in Texas would fit nicely into the Western Conference’s Division B, where they would benefit from an instant rivalry with the Dallas Stars.  At this point, all Houston lacks is an NHL-level ownership group.

An expansion team in Quebec City seems to be inevitable at this point.  While the league’s bottom line will benefit greatly from the second coming of the Nordiques, the downside is that either Detroit or Columbus will again have to go West.  The Red Wings, with their long-established and loyal fan base, would weather such a move better than the Blue Jackets, but Detroit owner Mike Ilitch undoubtedly has more pull with the league office than his counterpart in Columbus.

The NHL will have 32 teams in the not-too-distant future; bank on it.  Quebec City is a virtual lock for an expansion franchise, which would send either Detroit or Columbus back to the Western Conference.  If the Coyotes move, they’ll either end up in Seattle or Houston.  If Phoenix stays put, the 32nd team in the NHL will either be on Puget Sound or the Houston Ship Channel.  Either way, The Great Game grows, and that’s a good thing.

NHL Predictive Analysis – 28 April

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Saturday, 27 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 28 April Chart

Here is the Eastern Conference’s projected, final standings points after games completed on 27 April since the West is now decided:

NHL_27Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in the Eastern Conference. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included four positional adjustments since the 27 April update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Eastern Conference PQC

Yesterday, we said we thought the opening Eastern matchups will be:

NYI at PIT

NYR @ BOS

OTT @ WSH

And TOR @ MTL

For this to come true, today’s game between Boston and Ottawa needs to go to OT/SO with Boston as the winner. If it does not come out that way, Boston and Montreal switch places and the matchups come out as:

NYI at PIT

NYR @ MTL

OTT @ WSH

And TOR @ BOS

We will provide you playoff analysis prior to opening games on Tuesday.

Western Conference PQC

In an unexpected twist in the Western Conference last night, the three teams vying for the final two positions faced no spoiler opponents. There usually is at least one. We thought that might be Dallas, but when Kari Lehtonen was not started in goal, that just about sealed the deal for the Red Wings.

We feel the Blue Jackets’ fans pain this morning after a great attempt to come back from their opening 20 games’ deficit. Columbus has no reason to hang their head this morning. Their future looks very bright indeed.

We will have playoff analysis coming soon, but wanted to make a few comments about matchups:

  1. Don’t write off Minnesota in Round 1 as a sweep. They went 1 – 2 against the President’s Trophy winners with a –2 goal differential. This series will be close on outcomes no matter how many games are actually played.
  2. Ditto for the Red Wings at Anaheim where the Wings went 2 – 1 with a +2 goal differential.
  3. What’s not to like about a Sharks at Canucks matchup? And…
  4. And we are thinking there is not going to be a repeat Playoff sweep between the Blues and Kings. This just might perhaps be the most entertaining first round Western matchup.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 27 April.

Your next update will be posted after the final game played on Sunday, 28 April. Thereafter, we will be looking at the 2013 Playoffs.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

NHL Predictive Analysis – 27 April

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Friday, 26 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 27 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 26 April:

NHL_26Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in both Conferences. The difference between 8th through 9th place in the Western Conference is tie-breakers. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included four positional adjustments since the 21 April update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Eastern Conference PQC

As you can see from the current standings, the Eastern teams with home ice advantage are set. The only question is in the Northeast Division where Montreal has to play a tough Toronto squad and Boston plays a pair of games on Saturday and Sunday against .850 Capitals and .500 Senators’ teams over their last 10 games. We’d say the nod goes to Montreal except both they and Boston seem to be suffering from confidence issues. How does it end for the top four? We think Boston pride may just keep the Bruins in the No.2 seed here.

Toronto are most likely set at No. 5 with, based on the above, tonight’s game against Montreal the first of potentially eight straight games they will face the Canadiens. Ottawa overtaking them may come down to tonight where they are playing the Tee-Timed Flyers who own the currently longest Eastern winning streak at three games. Anything less than two regulation wins for the Sens means no higher than No. 6. The Rangers should beat the Devils tonight and leap frog up to No. 6 temporarily depending on Ottawa’s remaining two-game performance. And the Islanders, currently at No. 6, are done and waiting for the weekend to tell them who their first Playoff opponent since 2007 is. How do we think the bottom four will fall? We will cast out there Toronto, Ottawa, the Rangers and then the Islanders.

So we think the opening Eastern matchups will be:

NYI at PIT

NYR @ BOS

OTT @ WSH

And TOR @ MTL

Western Conference PQC

We already know the six teams Chasing Stanley in the West. The final two Playoff positions come down to a three-horse race between Detroit, Minnesota and Columbus. So we will focus our analytics there.

Detroit has the leg up on our predictive model. An OT/SO loss puts them in the Playoffs. Against Dallas this season, they are 1 – 1 with a +2 goal differential. They are also playing a Stars team that was eliminated from the Playoffs for the fourth straight season and is on a two game losing streak against the pride of a potential 21st straight post-season and a three-game Red Wings’ winning streak. The one intangible factor here is how much Dallas hates Detroit and you are playing in the Stars home rink today. Is that enough to make the Stars a spoiler? Odds are against it, although some doubt does linger.

Minnesota could have clinched last night against an eliminated Oilers squad and instead dropped a 6 – 1 decision after giving up all of Edmonton’s goals in the first two periods. They need a win tonight to ensure no matter what Detroit and Columbus do, they will see their first post-season play in five seasons. They play an eliminated Colorado squad against whom they have gone 3 – 0 – 1 with a +5 goal differential against this season. They are close to even in terms of their records over the last 10 games and in Colorado, the Avalanche have played .587 Hockey while the Wild have only been .500 on the road. Is Colorado the spoiler, or does Minny bring last night’s third period all night tonight? Odds are in their favor for a “W” although the Avalanche are not going to mail in this game.

And there’s Columbus. Our model called provided a Dusting Off Clubs warning at G10 and called them at Tee Time for G20. IF they make it in – and they need a ‘W’ with a loss for either Minnesota or Detroit – they will have completed the greatest Shot Off The Post comeback since the last Lockout at more than five games under our mark. (The Capital’s in Bruce Boudreau’s first season were a –4.5.) They are playing Nashville against whom they have gone 3 – 1 with a +1 goal differential. In their favor are both a home crowd who is dying to see them play late-season Hockey and the fact the Predators are 1 – 8 – 1 in their last 10 games. Likely not a mailed–in game either on Nashville’s part, but we say the nod likely goes to the confident Blue Jackets. They just need a little help from Dallas and/or Colorado.

How do we think it will end? Believe it or not, we will roll the dice with Minnesota and Columbus making it in and Detroit on the links. Tonight’s three games will tell by around 10:30pm Eastern time.

G48’s:

Wednesday, 25 April 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G48, the Dallas Stars are the fourteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 25 April 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MN – Based on their play through G48, the Winnipeg Jets are the thirteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G48, the Washington Capitals are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the eleventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G48, the St. Louis Blues are the eleventh team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 22 April 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G48, the Phoenix Coyotes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the Los Angeles Kings are the tenth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the San Jose Sharks are the ninth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the eighth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G48, the New Jersey Devils are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the New York Islanders are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the seventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G40 (IN or OUT calls):

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the Carolina Hurricanes are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 26 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 27 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

NHL Predictive Analysis – 26 April

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Thursday, 25 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 26 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 25 April:

NHL_25Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in both Conferences. The difference between 8th through 9th place in the Western Conference is one OT/SO loss. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included seven positional adjustments since the 21 April update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Eastern Conference PQC

The only thing not set in the East is the final order of finish for Playoff matchups. Toronto needs at least one point out of Montreal to stay at No. 5. Ottawa is in the control of their own destiny – all they need to do is win to stay at No.6. The New Yorks? Dang – flip a coin there.

East_G48_PQC

Western Conference PQC

We are still trying to finalize the West. Dallas helped out the prognosticators by losing and eliminating themselves against Columbus last night. We stated yesterday that Minnesota would be the seventh team at Chasing Stanley. There is still an outside chance the final two teams in the West could be Detroit and Columbus. Going in reverse, the Blue Jackets have to win and wait. They are waiting to see if Dallas clocks Detroit on Saturday. They are also waiting to see if Edmonton and Colorado are spoilers when the play Minnesota or not.

West_G48_PQC

G48’s:

Wednesday, 25 April 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G48, the Dallas Stars are the fourteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 25 April 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MN – Based on their play through G48, the Winnipeg Jets are the thirteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G48, the Washington Capitals are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the eleventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G48, the St. Louis Blues are the eleventh team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 22 April 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G48, the Phoenix Coyotes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the Los Angeles Kings are the tenth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the San Jose Sharks are the ninth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the eighth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G48, the New Jersey Devils are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the New York Islanders are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the seventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G40 (IN or OUT calls):

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the Carolina Hurricanes are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 25 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Friday, 26 April.

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Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

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