Uncategorized

NHL Predictive Analysis – 5 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Friday, 5 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 5 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 5 April:

NHL_5Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25.5 wins / 51 points in the Eastern Conferences and 27.5 wins / 55 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 8th and 9th place in the Eastern Conference is tie-breakers. In the West, that difference is two wins. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included nine adjustments from our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 8 – of – 30 / 26.7% (up from 7 – of – 30 / 23.3% due to an adjustment in the Western Conference PQC based on team play) of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 18 teams – five Eastern and eight (up from seven) Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know six Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30. We are also potentially looking at the seventh T2 call in the East by G40.

Eastern Conference PQC

By G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh are the East’s CS teams. Five others cannot do better than In The Curve (ITC). One will not beat Dusting Off Clubs (DoC). And we retain the six teams who have already been called at Tee Time (T2). In predictive analysis, which can suffer when one team or another goes on a run or slump, we have the issue of how correct we are going to be right at the final 7th through 9th positions in the standings. For the Eastern Conference, we have two particular issues.

The Southeast Conference must declare a champion who will hold the 3rd seed at season’s end. Here we have a maximum wins difference of two games between Washington, Carolina and Winnipeg. In G40 spread order, Washington will be between 19 and 22 wins, Winnipeg 19 to 20 wins and Carolina 17 to 21 wins. Washington is in charge of its own destiny here – if they just continue to win then the other teams will stay behind them in the estimated standings. The Capitals just have to make that happen in three games over the next five nights. The Jets need to not lose any more traction by beating Philadelphia at home this afternoon. And Carolina is potentially in the worst shape here with the most to lose – they have four games in the next six nights against the Rangers, Bruins, Penguins and, for the coup de grace, the Capitals. Nursing a three-game losing streak, the Hurricanes must for all intents and purposes go 4–0 to remain in the hunt and will not do so. So by the time the G40’s are done, you will likely either see indications a slumping Capitals team (not too likely) loses the only Playoff slot for the Southeast to a streaking Winnipeg, or a losing Jets team propel the Capitals forward as a Shot Off The Post for the early out – of – it call at Game 10.

And then there is the knot of four Atlantic Division teams battling for 7th through 10th place in the final standings. THE BEST we can see (with potential spread at G40 in parentheses following) for these teams are: the Rangers with 22 wins (20 – 23); New Jersey with 21 wins (19.5 – 22.5); the Islanders with 21 wins (20 – 22); and Philadelphia with 20.5 wins (18.5 – 21.5). Two major factors are in play here. The first factor is Toronto who plays New Jersey once and the Rangers twice before those teams each reach G40. If Toronto wins out, then New Jersey likely rests with one win less than above and the Rangers face a small losing streak that potentially propels the Islanders and/or Flyers forward. And the second major factor is the ‘double-tap’ game on 9 April when the Flyers play the Islanders. Whichever team loses takes a big hit in terms of winning relativity between the two. The four-game winning streak the Flyers currently enjoy is double their best all season and is likely not going to continue (unless the presence of Mason pushes Bryzgalov to be who he potentially can be). That means the Islanders have more at stake here than the Flyers in terms of making themselves a Shot Off The Post and landing in the post-season.

Dynamics, ladies and gentlemen. It is why if you are not on streaks like Pittsburgh or Chicago this season, then your success and failure is not ever completely your own.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Chicago and Anaheim remain the West’s current CS teams with three (up from two) more who could theoretically meet that requirement. One cannot be better than Sharpening Skates (SS). Four (down from five) cannot surpass an ITC call. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the T2 calls by G40.

In the West’s end–of– season battle Edmonton, Phoenix, Dallas, Columbus and Nashville are separated in terms of maximums by 1.5 wins. That’s it. Easily said, and yet, many different influences on how this race turns out exist. Chicago (6-3-1 in their last 10), Los Angeles (6-3-1) and San Jose (8-2) all play agames against Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus and Nashville. If those four teams lose all of their games against the big three – something that is quite possible – then they finish at G40 Phoenix, Edmonton/Columbus, Nashville and Dallas in order. Edmonton, Columbus and Nashville have already been called at T2 by OGA with any one of the three potentially still in the hunt. Phoenix and Dallas have not yet been called out, but both could be. (Dallas is the most likely done of the two, especially considering G38 is against San Jose and G39 versus Los Angeles.)

But again, the above is only about the battle for 9th place if neither St. Louis nor Detroit falter in any decisive way. Every game counts…

West_G40_PQC

G30’s:

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Toronto Maple Leafs remain In The Curve, or about average for NHL play and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20’s (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 5 April.

Heading toward Game 40, no more than eight (up from seven) teams will rate a CS call. Eleven (down from 12) others’ maximums are between a SS and a DoC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

Winnipeg opens the G40 calls today with their game against Philadelphia. Nashville in next in the West on 7 April. Four Western teams will close out the G40 stretch on Friday, 12 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 6 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Advertisements

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Twitter on OGA

Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.

Twitter Updates

Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 27 other followers

%d bloggers like this: