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NHL Predictive Analysis – 11 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Thursday, 11 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 11 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 11 April:

NHL_11Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 26.5 wins / 53 points in both Conferences to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 8th and 9th place in both Conferences is one win. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included 12 positional adjustments from our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We know by G30 only 6 – of – 30 / 20% (down from 8 – of – 30 / 26.7%) of NHL clubs have a shot at a Chasing Stanley (CS) call by Game 40.

Including the CS teams above, we also know another 18 teams – eight Eastern and 10 Western – are not eliminated from playoff contention at G40.

And we know seven Eastern teams and five Western teams are at Tee Time (T2) and eliminated from potential Playoff contention as of G30. We are also potentially looking at the seventh T2 call in the East by G40.

Eastern Conference PQC

For G40 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh remain the East’s CS teams. Four others are an In The Curve (ITC). New Jersey joins Winnipeg as Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) calls for G40. And Carolina joins Buffalo, Florida, the New York Islanders, Philadelphia Tampa Bay and Washington as the seven Tee Time (T2) calls.

Here is where we get interesting. The New York Islanders were a marginal T2 call at G20 having only netted three wins in 10 games between G11 and G20. When we made that call, I said ‘…You watch the Islanders come back and make Shot-Off-The-Post (SotP) liars out of that call….’ We are within just a couple of games of potentially seeing that happen. There will either be an immaculate resurgence of New Jersey by the end of the weekend and a losing streak kick in by the Isles, or sometime next week, the Devils will be called at T2 and the Islanders will be a SotP.

Also, Washington has been looking like a SotP call since G27 and onward, especially in light of Carolina’s perfromance (now a T2 call) and Winnipeg’s .300 hockey run between G31 and G40. Two of those wins by the Jets have come over the last two games as if they finally remembered they are potential contenders. But the Capitals kicked it into fifth gear beginning with G25 and have played .767 hockey since then. So we shall also know within the next few games is the Jets can turn on the afterburners and catch the Capitals or Washington is a second SotP in the East.

East_G40_PQC

Western Conference PQC

By G40, Vancouver will join Chicago and Anaheim as the West’s CS teams. Due to the extreme competitiveness in the West, seven additional teams will fall between a high of Sharpening Skates (SS) and no worse than a low of DoC. Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville will remain the West’s T2 calls by G40.

Since the last posting of this blog, St. Louis has moved up the standings, having won their last six games in a row. Eighth place looks like it is going to come down to Detroit, Dallas and Phoenix where only one of those teams will prevail. If you look at these three teams, they are currently separated by a span of 1.5 wins and, if they could all win their final games, would be separated by only one win. Suffice it to say they are close. But to truly break down these teams we have to look at what is before them. So if we give them only a win against teams we have called at T2 and 50% of the games against the other competition, we come out with an ending of Detroit at 27.5 wins and Dallas and Phoenix at 26 wins apiece. If you change that to Detroit dropping their games against both Dallas and Phoenix and everything else remaining the same, then we are down to tie-breakers between all three teams. We give those examples to say the end of the season and the final playoff seed is up to Detroit first and the pluck of both Dallas and Phoenix second. (Columbus still has an outside shot, but has to be spectacular to the end with only games against Colorado and Nashville coming against teams we called at T2.)  

West_G40_PQC

G40’s:

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G40, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the the Carolina Hurricanes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 11 April 2013, XCel Energy Center, Saint Paul, MN – Based on their play through G40, the Minnesota Wild are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G40, both the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Phoenix Coyotes are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G40, the Winnipeg Jets are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of elimination from the 2013 NHL Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – Based on their play through G40, both the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Tuesday, 9 April 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G40, the Los Angeles Kings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 6 April 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MN – Based on their play through G40, the Winnipeg Jets are Dusting Off Clubs, or just short of elimination from the 2013 NHL Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Calgary Flames are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games ending 11 April.

Heading toward Game 40, no more than eight teams will rate a CS call. Eleven others’ maximums are between a SS and a DoC call. And 11 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

Dallas and St. Louis’ calls come on 12 April to close out the G40 stretch.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Friday, 12 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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