Uncategorized

NHL Predictive Analysis – 20 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Friday, 19 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 20 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 19 April:

NHL_19Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in the Eastern Conference and 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 8th and 9th place in the Eastern Conference is one win. The difference between 8th through 9th place is tie breakers. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included two positional adjustments from our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Looking ahead to G48 across the NHL, 11 (down from 12) teams can reach a call of Chasing Stanley (CS). Right now, seven (up from five) would rest at an In the Curve (ITC) call. We also have 12 called at Tee Time (T2), leaving two more who will fall in an In the Curve status and not see post-season play. So we are looking at five teams moving up from the below-CS-level ranks to a final Playoff position with three of them – Washington, the New York islanders and Columbus – potentially being Shots Off The Post (SotP), or wrong calls of OUT of the Playoffs.

Eastern Conference PQC

For G48 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh remain the East’s CS teams. They could potentially be joined by another two teams per the model. Three are at ITC and seven are at T2. One more loss will ensure New Jersey is at T2, joining Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Florida and, yes, Buffalo on the links come May. So what is key today? New Jersey hosting Florida ending in a loss for the Devils ensures they are out of the Playoffs against the PQC. We are poised to call Toronto or Ottawa IN the playoffs depending on which team wins their matchup tonight. And then there are Washington and Winnipeg. Here’s an interesting scenario… If Winnipeg wins and Washington loses, we have a dead heat that is determined by tie-breakers. That leads is into Monday with a possible win for Winnipeg in Buffalo which puts them more securely in front of Washington. The issue here is whether or not the Jets get caught looking ahead to Tuesday night when they play at Washington where a win again would place them a solid two wins up on the Capitals. While after Tuesday night Washington would have a game in hand, their next two contests would come against Ottawa and Boston which would not be any kind of a cake walk. It is safe to say, however, that both the Caps and the Jets are still in contention with a final call in the Southeast likely coming down to the wire. As for the Islanders and the Rangers, their seasons come down to both who plays better than the other and who does not let Washington or Winnipeg beat them out of the 8th seed. EVERYTHING counts in the Eastern Conference in terms of wins and losses right now, ladies and gentlemen.

East_G48_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Onward toward G48, Vancouver, Chicago and Anaheim are the West’s CS teams. Three (down from four) more can also potentially reach a CS level by G48. Four (up from three) others will not surpass ITC. From these four teams and, what looks like a battle being waged between Columbus (as a SotP), Dallas and Detroit, the final Western Playoff teams will be determined. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the West’s T2 calls (with the Columbus adjustment above still a possibility). Los Angeles and San Jose are within one win of us calling them at CS and St. Louis is right behind them. After last night’s one-goal loss, Dallas hurt themselves against Columbus and Detroit in the battle for the 8th seed. Detroit has a leg up with one game in hand over the Stars and two over Columbus. We are back to Detroit only needing to win to make it into the Playoffs again. So tonight’s Detroit and Vancouver game is key for both a potential Canucks CS call and whether the Columbus/Dallas/Detroit pile up tightens back up or not.

West_G48_PQC

G40 (IN or OUT calls):

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the the Carolina Hurricanes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Calgary Flames are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 19 April.

Heading toward Game 48, no more than 11 (down from 12) teams could rate a CS call. Seven (up from six) others’ maximums are between a SS and a DoC call. And 12 are currently eliminated from Playoff contention at T2.

All CS and T2 calls now come game by game once teams show they are warranted.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 20 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Advertisements

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 27 other followers

%d bloggers like this: