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NHL Predictive Analysis – 21 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Saturday, 20 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 21 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 20 April:

NHL_20Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in the Eastern Conference and 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. The estimated difference between projected 8th and 9th place in the Eastern Conference is one win. The difference between 8th through 9th place is tie breakers. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included four positional adjustments from our last update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Looking ahead to G48 across the NHL, 11 teams can reach a call of Chasing Stanley (CS) who are joined by one Shot Off the Post (SotP), IN the Playoffs call today. Right now, one team has a chance to hit a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, while five (down from seven) more would rest at an In the Curve (ITC) call. We also have 12 called at Tee Time (T2), leaving two more who will fall in an In the Curve status and not see post-season play. So we are looking at five teams moving up from the below-CS-level ranks to a final Playoff position with two more of them – Washington and Columbus – potentially being Shots Off The Post (SotP), or wrong calls of OUT of the Playoffs.

Eastern Conference PQC

For G48 Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh were joined by Toronto as the East’s CS teams. The New York Islanders’ win against Winnipeg yesterday marked them as a SotP and IN the Playoffs team per the PQC model. They could potentially be joined by another two teams per the model. One other team could max out as a SS team while another could run as an ITC team. New Jersey won but is still a new T2 call today in combination with the Devils win and the Jets Shootout loss point – they join Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Florida and, yes, Buffalo on the links come May. So what is key today? Nothing, really. But we are looking for the next Ottawa victory for a CS call there. We also are watching Winnipeg who must not lose any of their next three games or they are done for. So the key then is Monday night when both of those teams play. We might add the Rangers must still watch their back and a very outside chance of Winnipeg/Washington catching them for the 8th seed.

East_G48_PQC

Western Conference PQC

For G48, Vancouver, Chicago and Anaheim are now joined by Los Angeles and San Jose as Western CS teams. We are looking for the next St. Louis win for them to also reach a CS level by G48. Four others will not surpass ITC. From these four teams and, what looks like a battle being waged between Columbus (as a SotP), Dallas and Detroit, the final Western Playoff teams will be determined. Detroit still retains a leg up with the SO loss point they earned at Vancouver last night in the battle for the 8th seed. And Calgary, Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton and Nashville are the West’s T2 calls (with the Columbus adjustment above still a possibility).

West_G48_PQC

G48’s:

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the Los Angeles Kings are the tenth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the San Jose Sharks are the ninth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the eighth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G48, the New Jersey Devils are the thirteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the New York Islanders are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the seventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G40 (IN or OUT calls):

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the Carolina Hurricanes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Calgary Flames are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 20 April.

Heading toward Game 48, we now have five teams in each Conference set to enter the Playoffs. Two more, total teams can earn CS calls per today’s PQC model. Two additional teams who fell to early T2 calls have a chance to earn a SotP call for a total of 14 teams who would be called in. And out of the Western Conference, two teams who otherwise would earn an ITC call will likely round out the Playoff 16. Twelve teams have been called at T2 including an addition to the Eastern Conference listing in conjunction with a SotP and IN call for the New York Islanders. More T2’s are coming.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Sunday, 21 April.

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