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NHL Predictive Analysis – 25 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 24 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 25 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 24 April:

NHL_24Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in both Conferences. The estimated difference between projected 8th and 9th place in the Eastern Conference is one win. The difference between 8th through 9th place is one OT/SO loss. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included nine positional adjustments since the 21 April update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Eastern Conference PQC

For G48 Boston, Montreal, Pittsburgh and Toronto are the East’s CS teams. The New York Islanders’ and Washington are both SotP teams and IN the Playoffs team per the PQC model. The remaining two slots most likely fall to Ottawa and the New York Rangers – one win by each or a loss by the Jets means Winnipeg cannot overtake them. All of the other teams are on the links come the first week in May.

East_G48_PQC

Western Conference PQC

For G48, Vancouver, Chicago, Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose are joined by St. Louis as Western CS teams. Minnesota is the seventh team that will be called in. And those seven will be joined by either Detroit, Columbus or Dallas. The Red Wings are in the cat bird seat here – all they have to do is win out and they are the eighth seed. If Columbus does not beat Dallas tonight, they are counting on the Stars to beat the Red Wings on 28 April or they are finished despite their solid comeback attempt. Dallas must win their last two games in regulation in order to snatch the eighth seed, but they are on VERY thin ice.  All other Western teams are through for the season.

West_G48_PQC

G48’s:

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the Washington Capitals are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the eleventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the St. Louis Blues are the eleventh team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 22 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G48, the Phoenix Coyotes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the Los Angeles Kings are the tenth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the San Jose Sharks are the ninth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the eighth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G48, the New Jersey Devils are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the New York Islanders are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the seventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G40 (IN or OUT calls):

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the Carolina Hurricanes are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 24 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 25 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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