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NHL Predictive Analysis – 27 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Friday, 26 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 27 April Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 26 April:

NHL_26Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in both Conferences. The difference between 8th through 9th place in the Western Conference is tie-breakers. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included four positional adjustments since the 21 April update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Eastern Conference PQC

As you can see from the current standings, the Eastern teams with home ice advantage are set. The only question is in the Northeast Division where Montreal has to play a tough Toronto squad and Boston plays a pair of games on Saturday and Sunday against .850 Capitals and .500 Senators’ teams over their last 10 games. We’d say the nod goes to Montreal except both they and Boston seem to be suffering from confidence issues. How does it end for the top four? We think Boston pride may just keep the Bruins in the No.2 seed here.

Toronto are most likely set at No. 5 with, based on the above, tonight’s game against Montreal the first of potentially eight straight games they will face the Canadiens. Ottawa overtaking them may come down to tonight where they are playing the Tee-Timed Flyers who own the currently longest Eastern winning streak at three games. Anything less than two regulation wins for the Sens means no higher than No. 6. The Rangers should beat the Devils tonight and leap frog up to No. 6 temporarily depending on Ottawa’s remaining two-game performance. And the Islanders, currently at No. 6, are done and waiting for the weekend to tell them who their first Playoff opponent since 2007 is. How do we think the bottom four will fall? We will cast out there Toronto, Ottawa, the Rangers and then the Islanders.

So we think the opening Eastern matchups will be:

NYI at PIT

NYR @ BOS

OTT @ WSH

And TOR @ MTL

Western Conference PQC

We already know the six teams Chasing Stanley in the West. The final two Playoff positions come down to a three-horse race between Detroit, Minnesota and Columbus. So we will focus our analytics there.

Detroit has the leg up on our predictive model. An OT/SO loss puts them in the Playoffs. Against Dallas this season, they are 1 – 1 with a +2 goal differential. They are also playing a Stars team that was eliminated from the Playoffs for the fourth straight season and is on a two game losing streak against the pride of a potential 21st straight post-season and a three-game Red Wings’ winning streak. The one intangible factor here is how much Dallas hates Detroit and you are playing in the Stars home rink today. Is that enough to make the Stars a spoiler? Odds are against it, although some doubt does linger.

Minnesota could have clinched last night against an eliminated Oilers squad and instead dropped a 6 – 1 decision after giving up all of Edmonton’s goals in the first two periods. They need a win tonight to ensure no matter what Detroit and Columbus do, they will see their first post-season play in five seasons. They play an eliminated Colorado squad against whom they have gone 3 – 0 – 1 with a +5 goal differential against this season. They are close to even in terms of their records over the last 10 games and in Colorado, the Avalanche have played .587 Hockey while the Wild have only been .500 on the road. Is Colorado the spoiler, or does Minny bring last night’s third period all night tonight? Odds are in their favor for a “W” although the Avalanche are not going to mail in this game.

And there’s Columbus. Our model called provided a Dusting Off Clubs warning at G10 and called them at Tee Time for G20. IF they make it in – and they need a ‘W’ with a loss for either Minnesota or Detroit – they will have completed the greatest Shot Off The Post comeback since the last Lockout at more than five games under our mark. (The Capital’s in Bruce Boudreau’s first season were a –4.5.) They are playing Nashville against whom they have gone 3 – 1 with a +1 goal differential. In their favor are both a home crowd who is dying to see them play late-season Hockey and the fact the Predators are 1 – 8 – 1 in their last 10 games. Likely not a mailed–in game either on Nashville’s part, but we say the nod likely goes to the confident Blue Jackets. They just need a little help from Dallas and/or Colorado.

How do we think it will end? Believe it or not, we will roll the dice with Minnesota and Columbus making it in and Detroit on the links. Tonight’s three games will tell by around 10:30pm Eastern time.

G48’s:

Wednesday, 25 April 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G48, the Dallas Stars are the fourteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 25 April 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MN – Based on their play through G48, the Winnipeg Jets are the thirteenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G48, the Washington Capitals are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the eleventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 23 April 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – Based on their play through G48, the St. Louis Blues are the eleventh team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 22 April 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – Based on their play through G48, the Phoenix Coyotes are the twelfth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the Los Angeles Kings are the tenth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013 – Based on their play through G48, the San Jose Sharks are the ninth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the eighth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – Based on their play through G48, the New Jersey Devils are the eleventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 21 April 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G48, the New York Islanders are a Shot off The Post in an incorrect call of elimination and are the seventh team called as IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G40 (IN or OUT calls):

Thursday, 11 April 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, D.C. – Based on their play through G40, the Carolina Hurricanes are the tenth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 10 April 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – Based on their play through G40, the Vancouver Canucks are the sixth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G30 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 24 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the Calgary Flames are the ninth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – Based on their play through G30, the Edmonton Oilers are the eighth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Saturday, 23 March 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – Based on their play through G30, the the Colorado Avalanche are the seventh NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 20 March 2013, Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G30, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the sixth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 19 March 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – Based on their play through G30, the Nashville Predators are the fifth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Monday, 18 March 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G30, the Philadelphia Flyers are the fourth NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Sunday, 17 March 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Based on their play through G30, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the fifth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G20 (IN or OUT calls):

Saturday, 2 March 2013, Jobbing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – Based on their play through G20, the Anaheim Ducks are the fourth team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Thursday, 28 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Florida Panthers are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Buffalo Sabres are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

G10 (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 26 April.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Saturday, 27 April.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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