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NHL Predictive Analysis – 28 April


(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Saturday, 27 April. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 28 April Chart

Here is the Eastern Conference’s projected, final standings points after games completed on 27 April since the West is now decided:

NHL_27Apr

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 27.5 wins / 55 points in the Eastern Conference. In addition the daily difference in projected standings included four positional adjustments since the 27 April update.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. ‘eTrend’ = Difference in the estimated, final standings position from the previous day

9. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

Eastern Conference PQC

Yesterday, we said we thought the opening Eastern matchups will be:

NYI at PIT

NYR @ BOS

OTT @ WSH

And TOR @ MTL

For this to come true, today’s game between Boston and Ottawa needs to go to OT/SO with Boston as the winner. If it does not come out that way, Boston and Montreal switch places and the matchups come out as:

NYI at PIT

NYR @ MTL

OTT @ WSH

And TOR @ BOS

We will provide you playoff analysis prior to opening games on Tuesday.

Western Conference PQC

In an unexpected twist in the Western Conference last night, the three teams vying for the final two positions faced no spoiler opponents. There usually is at least one. We thought that might be Dallas, but when Kari Lehtonen was not started in goal, that just about sealed the deal for the Red Wings.

We feel the Blue Jackets’ fans pain this morning after a great attempt to come back from their opening 20 games’ deficit. Columbus has no reason to hang their head this morning. Their future looks very bright indeed.

We will have playoff analysis coming soon, but wanted to make a few comments about matchups:

  1. Don’t write off Minnesota in Round 1 as a sweep. They went 1 – 2 against the President’s Trophy winners with a –2 goal differential. This series will be close on outcomes no matter how many games are actually played.
  2. Ditto for the Red Wings at Anaheim where the Wings went 2 – 1 with a +2 goal differential.
  3. What’s not to like about a Sharks at Canucks matchup? And…
  4. And we are thinking there is not going to be a repeat Playoff sweep between the Blues and Kings. This just might perhaps be the most entertaining first round Western matchup.

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings based on games played 27 April.

Your next update will be posted after the final game played on Sunday, 28 April. Thereafter, we will be looking at the 2013 Playoffs.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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