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NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 10 May


The 2013 Playoffs continue!

So how is OGA looking at this? On 30 April and 1 and 2 May, we provided predictive analysis for all Round 1 matchups. Our picks gave you predicted winners based on their statistical advantages this season.

I’ll say it. I absolutely got San Jose versus Vancouver wrong. Stating the Canucks would win in seven games and the Sharks coaching staff would be dismissed was exactly wrong. And the stats for goaltending in the regular season had nothing to do with post-season play. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The stats told me to tell you Chicago over Minnesota in five games. THAT was on the money.

And the stats led me to believe Montreal would take Ottawa in six games. I did say the Senators lead in goalie and defenseman statistical categories and that Carey Price was who to watch in this game. That is where this series was won by Ottawa and lost by Montreal.

What Is Ahead?

Toronto at Boston 7pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Based on the records both teams bring into this game and where past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners in their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Toronto’s favor 100% to Boston’s 69%. For Toronto to carry that through to the end of the series, we would have to go to the seventh game. There is only one instance of a team getting to Game 7 with a record of L-W-L-L-W-W as the Maple Leafs would have to do, but that was a win for that team. Overall, however, the Game 1 winner – Boston – takes Round 1 67.9% of the time. That would go against our call of Toronto taking this series.

New York Rangers at Washington 7:30pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. Going again to past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series winners for their next game, the chances of winning Game 5 lean in Washington’s favor 100% to New York’s 60%. We said this series would go to a Game 7 with the Rangers pulling it out. But as with Boston, the Game 1 winner takes Round 1 67.9% of the time which would tip toward the Capitals. That would go against our call for the Rangers taking this series. But we see a split in the next two games and then you can flip a coin for the G7.

Anaheim at Detroit 8pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. The past histories since the 2006 Playoffs indicate the chances of winning Game 6 lean in Detroit’s favor 100% to Anaheim’s 50%. That’s OK. We said Anaheim takes this series in seven games and are sticking by that call.

St. Louis at Los Angeles 10pm Eastern on Friday, 10 May. And comparing this game once more to history as mentioned above, the edge for winning Game 6 goes to Los Angeles 50% to St. Louis’ 14.3%. We said this series would go to the Kings in six games which would be tonight. It will be a tough fight, however, as this Blues team won’t just fold up tent and mail it in.

Summary

So tonight, we are saying Toronto, Washington, Detroit and Los Angeles have a better chance odds-wise of winning which would only close out the Blues/Kings series.

The best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

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  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
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