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NHL Predictive Playoff Analysis – 11 May


The 2013 Playoffs continue!

So how is OGA looking at this? Yesterday, we provided predictive analysis indicating what the odds said are the chances for outcomes on all four games played. The odds did not lie as they correctly led us to pick the winner of all four games. While we cannot guarantee that will continue to be the case, we are going to give you the odds for both Saturday and Sundays’ matchups below.

Note, too, our calls on series winners based on statistical comparison 30 April through 2 May are only batting .500 right now. Right or wrong, we follow up here. San Jose and Ottawa as Round 1 winners were not confirmed by stats comparison and were therefore wrong. We did, however, pick Chicago in five games and Los Angeles in six games which were on the money.

Still to go we have Anaheim in seven to close out the West, Pittsburgh over the Islanders and Toronto over Boston which will take more games than we thought, and the Rangers over Washington in seven.

As for this weekend’s games, let’s look at the odds based on whether or not past, post- 2004-5 Lockout Playoff series win their next game and who has the advantage for opening the series as the Game 1 winner…

What Is Ahead?

Pittsburgh at the New York Islanders 7pm Eastern on Saturday, 11 May. Based on the history mentioned above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the New York Islanders’ favor as shown below:

pitNYI11May

These teams play on back-to-back evenings with a chance Pittsburgh can close out the series against the odds tonight. But they are going to face a tenacious Islanders team to do it. Our bet is, against our original call, a Game 7. The Penguins should pull that one out, however, as the odds above indicate the series win is in their favor based on the Game 1 winner percentage.

Washington at the New York Rangers 4:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Based on history, above, the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Capitals’ favor as shown below:

WSHnyr12May

Washington also holds the series-winning advantage for a Game 1 victory. The Capitals closing out the series would not uphold our Rangers’ – win – in – seven prediction, however. We say if the odds are wrong, it is here where the Rangers should reasonably be expected to pull out a win and force a G7.

The New York Islanders at Pittsburgh 7pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. We will update this call on Sunday morning, 12 May based on Saturday’s outcome.

Boston at Toronto 7:30pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 6 are in the Bruins’ favor as shown below:

BOStor12May

As with Washington, the odds of winning in Round 1 go to Boston for the Game 1 win. This would also go against our prediction of a Toronto victory, likely stats-tainted by the Bruins’ performance down the stretch. We would argue that the best Maple Leaf on the ice throughout the series has been James Reimer – a trend which needs to continue for our original prediction to come true.

Detroit at Anaheim 10pm Eastern on Sunday, 12 May. Since the 2006 Playoffs, the odds gods indicate the chances of winning Game 7 are in the Red Wings’ favor as shown below:

DETana12May

This, as you would expect from a G7, holds a conflicted ending when compared to the odds. Anaheim is still the odds-on favorite based on the G1 series win. This game is being played in the Ducks’ barn and we can expect a good show from the home team.

Summary

So tonight, the game odds say the Islanders win on Saturday night and Washington, Boston and Detroit on Sunday with the Penguins/Islanders Sunday call still TBD. We will see if the historical odds come through or we are looking at something closer to what we claimed would happen before the Round 1 series began.

As we said yesterday, the best part is it’s the playoffs and every game has to be played out…

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