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NHL Week 5 Tuesday (29 October): What Have We Learned?


We began NHL Week 5 last night. We complete our G10 furlong calls with this summary. After this post,  we turn our attention to predictive analysis for the G20 stretch.

Here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. West Versus East. See “…What Have We Learned?…” for 26 October to see the breakdown of this continuing saga. We will roll up this week for the 2 November blog.

2. The Week 5 OT/SO percentage will also be updated in the 2 November blog.

3. The PP / PK numbers? Ditto the above.

4. Overall, we have two
teams at Chasing Stanley
in the Western Conference and one team at Tee Time in the East. And we are keeping our eyes on three Metropolitan Division teams (New Jersey, the Rangers and Philadelphia) to determine if they slide off into Tee Time status by G20.

Now for the crux of our daily report: How do the Conferences look in light of the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and what remains on the G10 PQC Call schedule for this season?

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Tuesday, 29 October’s games:

NHLeast29Oct

Some notes here:

1. No Eastern Conference teams are Chasing Stanley (CS) at Game 10 (G10).

2. No Eastern Conference team rate a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Eleven teams are an In The Curve (ITC) call.

4. Four teams rest at a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And one team remains at Tee Time (T2) or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention – see below.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. Changes from Sunday’s pairings did occur, however, and are:

  • Boston moved up to the No. 1 Seed.
  • Tampa Bay dropped initially to the No. 3 seed, and then dropped again as Toronto moved up to the 3rd seed
  • And for the Wild Card teams, Montreal dropped to the No. 8 seed and Detroit moved up to No. 7.

8. G10 PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

21 October 2013, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – The Detroit Red Wings have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

22 October 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

22 October 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – The Florida Panthers have been called at Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of eliminated from the 2014 NHL Playoffs.

24 October 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – The New Jersey Devils have been called Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of eliminated from the 2014 NHL Playoffs.

24 October 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

24 October 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

24 October 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Washington Capitals have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

25 October 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – Both the Pittsburgh Penguins and NY Islanders have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

25 October 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

25 October 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Ottawa Senators have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

26 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The Boston Bruins have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

26 October 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

26 October 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The Philadelphia Flyers have been called at Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of eliminated from the 2014 NHL Playoffs.

28 October 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The New York Rangers have been called Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of elimination from the 2014 NHL Playoffs. The Rangers had a dismal beginning to their season. How is it quantified? New coach with new system to learn. Hold out at camp. Injuries. Poor play. And Road Trip from Hell. All of these factors contribute to a brutal beginning, though none more than maybe a new system to learn coupled with multiple, key injuries. This team is in drastic need of a do over and hopefully are bailed out by better G20 play.

Our next blog will begin to run G20 projections and give you the G20 schedule.

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Tuesday, 29 October’s games:

NHLwest29Oct

Western notes:

1. One team from both divisions is a CS call.

2. One Central Division team is an SS call.

3. There are 10 ITC calls in the Western divisions.

4. One team is a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call at this time.

5. No teams are a G10, T2 call.

6. Based on Sunday night’s contests, ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ pairings experienced slight adjustment as Los Angeles, Phoenix and Vancouver continue to play musical seeds.

7. G10 PQC breakdown:

20 October 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus OH – The Vancouver Canucks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

21 October 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

22 October 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of eliminated from the 2014 NHL Playoffs.

22 October 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – Both the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

22 October 2013, MTS Center, Winnipeg, MB – The Winnipeg Jets have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

22 October 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ – The Phoenix Coyotes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

24 October 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Anaheim Ducks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

24 October 2013, St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa, FL – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

24 October 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – The Phoenix Coyotes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO  The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

26 October 2013, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX – The Dallas Stars have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for NHL play.

29 October 2013, Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO – The St. Lois Blues have been called Sharpening Skates (SS), or just short of IN the 2014 NHL Playoffs. The Blues have played very well despite injuries running rampant through their forward core. They also entered the season with a media-fed goalie controversy that Jaroslav Halak has put to rest with a string of very strong performances in net. Cardinals playing for the MLB title and a winning Blues team give St. Louis residents plenty to cheer about. Look for continued strong play out of this team.

Our next blog will be posted on Friday, 1 November where we turn our attention to the G20 stretch where we already know nine Eastern and three Western teams cannot reach a CS call…

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